The thing is how many times have we seen over the years globals have an issue with this and there end up being a lot more moisture come verification time.
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Stormlover
Member
Seems like the Euro is the best at a week or 5 days out, but 2 or 3 days out it seems to lose something? Anyone else ever notice that?
iGRXY
Member
The 500MB jet is the biggest thing that has given me any hope back my way. You start pumping it like it's been depicted and I just don't see how we aren't seeing more widespread 0.3-0.5" QPF even west of 77. It honestly would not shock me for mby to backdoor it's way into a 2-4" event in the 11th hour.
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
SREF continues the southern trend. This model was well overamped for FFC and GSP region and the furthest north compared to most models several runs ago.
Climo says this is a good track for the triangle - east, with heaviest snow amounts in NE NC / SE VA. Cold won't be an issue, preceip types and now it would appear QPF, are the wild cards. If the cams start to trend drier, then that's definitely a warning shot, right now we are stuck in a wait and see.
As mentioned, it's going to come down to slp placement, strength, when and if it starts to deepen close enough to matter, which yesterday seemed like a distinct possibility, today I have some reservations if it will. Convection is also a wildcard, just as we have seen Gulf convection disrupt moisture transport in to the SE, I've seen Atlantic convection screw with moisture being thrown back over Eastern NC which I see some evidence of on the globals today.
This was the last discussion from RAH at 3AM. Waiting on their updated discussion.
“Although some locations have the potential to reach warning criteria for either snow or ice, there is not enough confidence in those values due to the uncertainty in precipitation types, and a winter storm watch will not be issued on this shift.”
“Although some locations have the potential to reach warning criteria for either snow or ice, there is not enough confidence in those values due to the uncertainty in precipitation types, and a winter storm watch will not be issued on this shift.”
15z SREF looks better for WNC and the western Piedmont to my eye, particularly the NBM suite. We await plumes with baited breath.
Still hoping for some kind of trend to get some decent snow western Virginia. By decent I'll take 2 to 4" seems to be the theme this winter. I have had 3 events all 2 to 4". Mostly been icy this winter or cold and dry.
Not that we have a chance anyways down here in CAE besides some backside flurries (a long shot also). But it does stink the cold source doesn't improve with the shift Southeast. You can tell down this way we just have a significant surface temp issues. Even has the press continues, you see the rain / winter weather line doesn't really shift further South.
rburrel2
Member
Early indications look like the 15z SREF is an improvement for the upstate and Central NC.
A little worse for Northern Alabama/Mississippi though.
It's clearly still super juiced though with near 100% odds for .1 inches of liquid for everyone.
A little worse for Northern Alabama/Mississippi though.
It's clearly still super juiced though with near 100% odds for .1 inches of liquid for everyone.
15z SREF-ARW is nice to look at.
rburrel2
Member
The odds of .5 inch of liquid improved for pretty much everyone who's in the game for winter weather. Ok, I'm done analyzing the Sref now.
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Any chance we can just punt on weds and have this bad boy Rob some energy off the Coastal? for extra Pain for Mayock NC ? Not only would this drastically decrease totals down there but then wed beat them not only overall but in a way that wasnt even modeled until 10hrs ago
. Boy that would cause some butthurt ppl.... Everything show 8-12" for 5 days then it whiffs and some random deform smashes the foothills and 85 then dissipates. im jk .... kind of lolBigedd09
Member
Does than mean the NAM will be even better at 18z??
From a synoptic perspective, this is more what I'm expecting to see. The fact it's a subset of the SREF showing it makes me question my own sanity.
olhausen
Member
Early Wednesday Am snow is falling at a steady clip with temps in the mid teens in middle Tennessee according to the euro. With temps that cold ratios will be sky high!
rburrel2
Member
It's nice to see the CAM's showing less of a screw zone jump to a coastal compared to the globals. Usually it's the other way around the CAM's win.
3km NAM/RAP/Hrrr and SREF are all have much less emphasis on a coastal low bomb, and are more like a steady stripe of precip/forcing that gets slightly enhanced once it makes it to Raleigh and East.
That's what we need here in the Upstate back to Charlotte, and in Central NC.
3km NAM/RAP/Hrrr and SREF are all have much less emphasis on a coastal low bomb, and are more like a steady stripe of precip/forcing that gets slightly enhanced once it makes it to Raleigh and East.
That's what we need here in the Upstate back to Charlotte, and in Central NC.
rburrel2
Member
That's exactly what we needed to see. let's go!
AIFS made the same slight improvement at about the same time for the Coastal Mauler storm as well... and kept making tiny incremental jumps up until go time.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Yes it does. Bumped up totals and shifted them west
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
You think far NE GA has a chance at it?
Stormlover
Member
Thank you. Only a small percentage really look farther than the models at face value.
interestedclimatist
Member
Weather channel is saying 4-6 inches for RDU
rburrel2
Member
I'm not Mitch, but I watch this area pretty close since you're my neighbor, and absolutely yes. You are in a very good spot. Could still get nothing, but you are squarely in the game.
Far Northeast Georgia will get the low level temp benefit from the 925mb jet for boundary layer temperatures Wednesday morning.
Places from Atlanta to Athens will struggle with boundary layer issues, but Gainesville to Toccoa could get slobber knocked if things come together just right. Also having any elevation at all will help tremendously.
Brent
Member
It's sad I've literally seen people just post the Euro verbatim here
Or sometimes they'll post the GFS to compare but it's still a straight model image
NCHighCountryWX
Member
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Sugar and Beech lucked into 4” from the little NW flow yesterday. Surely they can go 6-8” Wednesday and Thursday 
Going to see a turn-around at 18z.
Bigedd09
Member
For the good or for the bad? lol
Depends on where you live
IT IS TIME FOR YALL BOYS TO REEL THIS ONE IN FIVE BIG BOOOOOOOOOOOMS ARE ON THE WAY FOR THE NC & UPSTATE FAMILY
BOOM
BOOM
BOOM
BOOM
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM.
rburrel2
Member
the 12z Euro Graphcast was also a pretty big improvement across the board with qpf compared to the 00z run.
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where do you find that? the ec website?
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SREF mean went down a little for RDU but thats because it saw more sleet this run.
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Also, SREF has been advocating a significant ice storm from roughly @broken025s back yard to faynam to the sounds.
That interesting considering the AI models always have started seeing shorter range trends first this year in events
Bigedd09
Member
May be my untrained eye but HRRR looks a tad juicer through hour 34 weakens quite a bit shortly after though compared to 12z
weather bubba
Member
The NWS is playing things conservative in this briefing. I think a more realistic snowfall forecast accumulation map would double the totals they are showing here.
im feeling for these local mets in NC who are posting "there is still a lot to determine in terms of p-type and amounts before we can give a firmer answer on best projections for totals in local areas" and then their comment sections are just full of "so how much in raleigh?!" / "could i get 3 inches in CLT?!" / "does that mean im getting nothing in greensboro?!"
Bigedd09
Member
Dang HRRR might be pulling a EURO here