packfan98
Moderator
Well, the Euro sure complicated things. I thought it would reverse course like most of the other 12z. Maybe those earlier improvements @Myfrotho704_ mentioned will show up more downstream the next run?
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Oconeexman
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Oral surgery rescheduled...now let's cook up an upstate paste job!
Saw the talk of the Ukie..someone mentioned it's good at H5 sniff out around day 5 but squashes everything after that. Has not performed well at snow foot print.
Saw the talk of the Ukie..someone mentioned it's good at H5 sniff out around day 5 but squashes everything after that. Has not performed well at snow foot print.
rburrel2
Member
I actually really like where the upstate is sitting right now. Model consensus is all snow and qpf of .15-.25. I think a tenth of inch is about our floor... but I suspect the southern wave will trend a little better up until go time. .2-.3 is not an unrealistic goal, in fact it may be the most likely outcome.
Plus we are squarely centered in the streamer potential Thursday morning that the Rgem/Aprege/Ukmet are gungho on. If those models are right some places will get 1-2 inches just from that.
Plus we are squarely centered in the streamer potential Thursday morning that the Rgem/Aprege/Ukmet are gungho on. If those models are right some places will get 1-2 inches just from that.
weather bubba
Member
You are right about sleet making for some great sledding, especially if you use the flat bottomed plastic sleds. Snowball fights can become a bit dangerous though. I'd rather have sleet than freezing rain any day of the week. If you held a gun to my head and told me to make a forecast I'd say that my area just south of Raleigh is going to see a lot of transitions back and forth between the different precipitation types during this storm. I'm thinking as of now that my home turf will get about two inches of snow and maybe an inch or so of sleet with a little freezing rain (less than .10) from this storm.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Oconeexman
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Yea the "streamers" are peaking my interest. Been a while since the Lee side has been able to catch those. Usually too amped up or the transfer pushes those well east of us.
Sort of ends up being better for Wake County-proper but that heavier band doesn’t extend much further west. Overall, not wholly different than the 06z run, which was in fact worse than I remembered. For MBY, the Euro is on the lower end of guidance now, only thing worse is the UKMET. This time yesterday, it was the highest guidance. 
I’m not sure how it didn’t improve. From an H5 standpoint it certainly did look better
If the cells coming inland off Myrtle Beach SC make it to Raleigh before the moisture in the west makes it to the foothills…then we are in big trouble of losing even more qpf than what models show along I77. Once the ground is white down east it’s game over for places like Mount Airy, altho that second chance Thursday could still coat the ground for the foothills.
Euro continues a theme from the other 12z globals in being more progressive/faster/flatter with the southern wave, hard to believe precip is largely over in the Coastal Plain with a slp still east or Myrtle Beach. Certainly something to keep your eye on, especially if the cams start to lock on to a similar solution. Based on 12z initialization, we still didn't have a complete conus raob capture of the energy in question, and likely won't for another 12hrs, however, as we are seeing, just small changes in timing, sharpness, etc, is having a moderate impact on final solution.
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interestedclimatist
Member
My first call, you can see the uncertainty towards wake but this should depict what I’m thinking!
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Similar to its previous run with the snowfall footprint, but southern parts of NC still need to prepare for an impactful ice storm imo. As mentioned, liking the upper level disturbance dropping behind the main system which quite a GEFS members showed on the 12z cycle. Hope most can score with this one.
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Lee troughing induced snow band might do better for these areas then the setup itself. Could put down a quick decent amount 
15z (latest) NBM:
It is similar, though it shifted south a bit. RDU goes from 3.0" to 4.2", for example. @RBR71's humble abode went from 5-6" into 6-7", as well. GSO 3.0" to 3.5"
I'm personally not a big fan of the product, but the NWS seems to use it a lot from what I can gather.
wow
Member
It's a tale of two storms really with the overrunning precip with the southern wave and the low bombing off the coast with the pj wave. Stronger southern wave better for interior areas like WNC and upstate SC...not so much for eastern areas with WAA. Stronger pj wave and quicker phase will be ideal for eastern areas but there will be a serious cutoff as the coastal blows up.
At this pt Kinda hope the coast really bombs out quick and pull that comma head up to 77
Tsappfrog20
Member
I’ll take 2-4 inches in Youngsville with the possibility of more and be happy
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Me too...but unfortunately, come tomorrow it's going to be "I'll take 1" of snow and be happy
12z (LR) HRRR (I know, laugh at me) is way more juiced than 12z Euro. I'm still not convinced that some of the globals are properly assessing all of the dynamics at play here. Very difficult forecast from all angles (dynamics/QPF, thermal profile, track of surface low, etc.) About to send out an email to 1,000 people and I honestly don't know what to say.
i don't feel horribly worried about qpf existing for US-1 east. not sure i've seen an event that's been on a drying trend continue that trend in the last 24-36 hours of modeling. i think concerns should be the placement of that seemingly narrowing band (idk, we'll see if it ends up as narrow as euro thinks) and warm nose extent
Car topper. as long as you don’t turn the car on you should be fine 
Tsappfrog20
Member
Kylo I didn’t mean anything like that I just saying I am more optimistic at the moment and think we will be fine. Again sorry if you took that the wrong way wasn’t meant to be anything
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I'll confess I have a hard time reckoning with the fact that despite the upper jet trending stronger, QPF is vanishing on the euro. Almost seems like we should be seeing a broader area of 1-3" or 2-4" with a tightening of the most significant banding in the eastern parts from a broader synoptic perspective.
smast16
Member
Looks to be the only snow in the Piedmont is from the ULL Deform.
lusting4Adusting
Member
What is causing the euro to dry slot that whole area from miss all the way through E-NC? Looking like all have it more robust way back west (Tex/OK/Ark)
GFS, NAM, Rap etc seem to be moving to filling that whole area back in more, while Euro/UK are dry slotting the whole area.
More Miller B-ish with early transfer or squashed then late bloomer or other?
GFS, NAM, Rap etc seem to be moving to filling that whole area back in more, while Euro/UK are dry slotting the whole area.
More Miller B-ish with early transfer or squashed then late bloomer or other?
another globals vs cams storm
Go with what you know, meteorology over modelology, right?
Indeed. If a meteorologist can't add any value over model guidance, what good are they after all?
John1122
Member
Some of the Euro's issues have been with orientation with convection along and in the Gulf. It doesn't allow moisture transport to the N/NE.
Pilotwx
Member
If the HRRR is right then, for the foothills region as I posted yesterday its within benchmark area that allows it to gain height and its angular approach allows for more moisture North and West instead of being flat. Now this doesn't mean that this will happen with cold air pressing, but it gives us a better chance
jay.p
Member
is there anything new for this system that hasn’t been sampled yet?