Not a ton, verbatim, if the P-type algorithms can be believed…which is questionable. FRAM would probably be even less.
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Energy fully sampled and that info ingested in 12z models, now let's see if the Ukmet and Euro increase precip
WolfpackHomer91
Member
rburrel2
Member
For the Upstate and NC foothills. The GFS is weak enough with the coastal redevelopment that it keeps the associated precip minima/screw zone down in Southern SC.
I wouldn't hate that outcome.
I wouldn't hate that outcome.
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Nice little bump back this CMC run, not surprising given its meso brother did that as well 
12z GFS looks to be all snow on soundings at RDU. Gets close at 18z so maybe could mix a few pingers in but predominantly would be snow and Kuchera snowfall maps should be pretty representative.
However if you look at the soundings, it would be more sleet where the models are depicting ZR
Brad P not far off from what I see with the ZR/Sleet. One diff I do have is I have a relative min for the NC foothills into south West Virginia of 1-2” and higher amounts west and east away from places like North Wilkesboro.
WxBlue
Meteorologist
IMO, we're walking a really tight balance between regaining more QPF and having more sleet/ice to go too far north.
im currently sitting in an OK position in NE Durham, but yep if that NW trend continues over the next 36 hrs... i could be in danger zone too
rburrel2
Member
It's actually been like that for 4 runs now. And the re-development lines up pretty well with the AIFS.
That's what we need to root for locally. (sorry Raleigh). Although you guys might like this solution better too if it manages to keep you all snow.
That's what we need to root for locally. (sorry Raleigh). Although you guys might like this solution better too if it manages to keep you all snow.
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Dont you have to ? If you are the "I want all snow" crowd youre needing the weak strung out 2-3" type event even for Raleigh... If you want something more arent you gonna have to Sacrifice some of it to a mixed bag? Not a disputing post im honestly asking. TY for any input
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
12z vs. 00z Canadian global. Definite improvement for the western edge.
Tarheelwx
Member
Don't hate on sleet. If you want whatever falls to lie around for awhile and create the best sledding possible, an inch or 2 of snow compacted by an inch or two of sleet will hang around much longer than 4-6" of snow. I'm more interested in total qpf than ptype.
TW
TW
rburrel2
Member
Last night's Arpege is doing the same thing as the GFS and AIFS.
Very late/weak redevelopment... leads to less coastal transferring and better precip for the Upstate/Western and Central NC.
Very late/weak redevelopment... leads to less coastal transferring and better precip for the Upstate/Western and Central NC.
iGRXY
Member
Yeah, this is becoming a every man for himself fight now. Those of us west of 77 want to see that NW trend happen now. We are comfortably snow right now and just need the QPF. Those out east and in Raleigh are walking a tight tight tight rope between snow and sleet.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This is shaping up to be a near impossible forecast for the Triangle area and points east-northeastward near the 64 corridor
The RGEM/nam3 difference is prolly just be as simple as our classic LP track/strength tradeoff. 3k is a bit deeper and NW so you get mid lvl WAA and everyone takes their sleet and complains. RGEM further offshore and a touch weaker and a nice event.
Also, what a weird CAD setup. The fact that this look is producing snow on the RGEM on Feb 20th is wild to me
Also, what a weird CAD setup. The fact that this look is producing snow on the RGEM on Feb 20th is wild to me
yup. and then those of us in the durham/chapel hill/hillsborough area are like "ok, stay right where you are... a little further NW bump is fine, but lets not go crazy with it"
interestedclimatist
Member
I’ll tell you what’s going to happen…we are going to get an inch of sleet and an inch of snow then another inch of sleet
time to pull out those ice skates!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Your guess is probably as good as mine. This will be a very hard storm to message because sensible impacts could vary wildly, just across Wake County
beanskip
Member
Interesting little feature to watch -- both the CMC and GFS depict a little wrap around feature at about 72 hours which gives areas of the NC/SC foothills/Piedmont a half inch or so of snow. Might be nothing, but perhaps something to monitor.
You do get the feeling this is going to have some foggy preciseness even at 12hrs-18hrs out.
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Soil temps arent nearly the disaster I thought they'd be at nearly the noon hour today. Upper 30s in the triad and lower 40s in the triangle. I am assuming we can get at least to the upper 30s here by game time on Wednesday.
Brandon10
Member
If in ENC, the GRAF/EPS/EURO have had the snow line as far south as HWY 70. Going to want to see that and the low more more ENE than NE to keep warm nose at bay.
Going to need to see if 12Z EURO/EPS continues that or backs to match other guidance with it up near HWY 64.
This storm is extremely sensitive to the low track. Seems like a slight wobble north or south will make a huge difference.
This is more stressful than the Jan 21 event
Going to need to see if 12Z EURO/EPS continues that or backs to match other guidance with it up near HWY 64.
This storm is extremely sensitive to the low track. Seems like a slight wobble north or south will make a huge difference.
This is more stressful than the Jan 21 event
rburrel2
Member
I know it's meaningless, but this is what we do....
The 12z JMA is juicy and cold
The 12z JMA is juicy and cold
this storm is following the script of this winter to a tee.
1. days 5-10 show big dogs, entire eastern seaboard is on watch
2. days 2-5 have a strong southern trend (can't remember another winter like this, almost feels systematic) with cold press/lowering heights ahead of storm trending stronger. there's a perfect goldilocks suite that makes everyone happy around day 4 before the scale flips and it's too suppressed. 60 hours away seems to be the nadir of both storm totals and board morale, unless you are in the southern fringe of the crosshairs, a place like, say, moyock nc
3. 48 hours away to initialization NW trend kicks in. i've thrown my hands up, it's inevitable. every storm manages to find some extra qpf under the couch cushions for northern fringes. either the southern wave is stronger, or the northern stream is more cooperative, or the south east ridge helps the total orientation... something always happens.
we are between phase 2 and phase 3. some models have stopped the bleeding, others are already kicking back more moisture northwest.
i think trying to predict "what the next model suite will do" is tenuous but it if follows like every other storm, this is the turning point. the northwest ticks start now. if you're currently on a p-type line, the safe bet is expecting the p-type you don't want. sorry. your team was up but they just missed a field goal and now mahomes has the ball again. he's about to get a roughing the passer.
edit- had to look up moyock. it actually looks fine, unfortunately. for some reason in my head i pictured it being like a route 264 kinda town between little washington and bath
1. days 5-10 show big dogs, entire eastern seaboard is on watch
2. days 2-5 have a strong southern trend (can't remember another winter like this, almost feels systematic) with cold press/lowering heights ahead of storm trending stronger. there's a perfect goldilocks suite that makes everyone happy around day 4 before the scale flips and it's too suppressed. 60 hours away seems to be the nadir of both storm totals and board morale, unless you are in the southern fringe of the crosshairs, a place like, say, moyock nc
3. 48 hours away to initialization NW trend kicks in. i've thrown my hands up, it's inevitable. every storm manages to find some extra qpf under the couch cushions for northern fringes. either the southern wave is stronger, or the northern stream is more cooperative, or the south east ridge helps the total orientation... something always happens.
we are between phase 2 and phase 3. some models have stopped the bleeding, others are already kicking back more moisture northwest.
i think trying to predict "what the next model suite will do" is tenuous but it if follows like every other storm, this is the turning point. the northwest ticks start now. if you're currently on a p-type line, the safe bet is expecting the p-type you don't want. sorry. your team was up but they just missed a field goal and now mahomes has the ball again. he's about to get a roughing the passer.
edit- had to look up moyock. it actually looks fine, unfortunately. for some reason in my head i pictured it being like a route 264 kinda town between little washington and bath
The 12z GEFS mean is a little drier than 06z, but the probs of >1” around I-85 went up. Might be more amped members dropping off, who knows. Also may be more in the range of using the operational models at this point. Curious if the low resolution ensembles will miss some of the intensity of the developing coastal? Yes, copium, perhaps.
Charlotte to Raleigh. I would go with winter storm warnings due to mixing ZR. Easier to message up to 0.25” Ice and 1-3” snow/sleet. Then can always go higher once it verifies on the ground/radar. For Iredell/Wilkes/Surry/Yadkin it’s more winter weather advisory due to snow being more predominant and little to no chance of warning ice.
Bigedd09
Member
2.5 inches of snow would be a Winter Storm Warning for Iredell I believe
interestedclimatist
Member
Are we trusting the euro or gfs more?
Bigedd09
Member
Neither. It's time to start paying attention to shorter range guidance
i don't think it's copium- i think for "transfers" like this i trust the CAMs a little more. convection stretching the inert low level vorticity over the gulf stream is important for cyclogenesis and I've always felt the CAMs resolve this better
ChattaVOL
Member
I’m riding the GRAF. It performed really well for Chattanooga in the January storm.
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Hrrr/rap starting to come into unreliable range 