Wintry Feb. 19-20

[RBR71]

Yeah calm down guys good grief. My comment was somewhat in jest, however each 12z model thus far has come back W/NW a tick. And NW isn't always the slp track but precip shield and warm layer. It's tough because the NAM and the RGEM both at this range can be pretty good with thermals. Rgem was a dream, NAM gives pause and says more ice still on the table. Either way as I've stated, I highly doubt qpf will be an issue

 

[Ross]

Never a doubt

 

[Brandon10]

These 850s....can someone push them offshore...

 

[ForsythSnow]

Yeah calm down guys good grief. My comment was somewhat in jest, however each 12z model thus far has come back W/NW a tick. And NW isn't always the slp track but precip shield and warm layer. It's tough because the NAM and the RGEM both at this range can be pretty good with thermals. Rgem was a dream, NAM gives pause and says more ice still on the table. Either way as I've stated, I highly doubt qpf will be an issue

I'm just hoping these SR models are right on thermals and the LR ones are off for N GA's sake. The signs are there on a majority of them for the snow to come a bit more south with no real major warm nose, but just like the last system and many like this, QPF always is over what modeling is doing UNLESS you're on a fringe.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

If I was to give a forecast right now I’d say 1-3 for the CLT area and NE, 3-6 for RDU and NE with higher totals up in NE NC

 

[Bigedd09]

If I was to give a forecast right now I’d say 1-3 for the CLT area and NE, 3-6 for RDU and NE with higher totals up in NE NC

Do you think the high end will be north of 85 or south of 85

 

[Webberweather53]

Raleigh is right on the line in general with this morning’s guidance. That checks out

 

[Bigedd09]

Man, the NAM 3K and FV3 looked really good for the western carolina's (no precip hole) at hour 60. I know those normally aren't too accurate at this range though

 

[Chazwin]

If I was to give a forecast right now I’d say 1-3 for the CLT area and NE, 3-6 for RDU and NE with higher totals up in NE NC

That seems reasonable. Maybe up to 4” east of I-77

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Tsappfrog20]

Raleigh is right on the line in general with this morning’s guidance. That checks out

Eric what do you think of the latest RDPS for Raleigh?


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[LickWx]

Never a doubt

Sorry I doubted it bro, you were right indeed the NW trend is your friend

 

[griteater]

If I was to give a forecast right now I’d say 1-3 for the CLT area and NE, 3-6 for RDU and NE with higher totals up in NE NC

The board of directors have issued a Snowfall Forecast Contest 3.0 Watch for this evening as conditions are favorable for the creation of a new forecast thread. Monitoring…

 

[superjames1992]

12z FV3 is warning criteria snow back to the Triad. Much more QPF in central NC. Can’t really compare it to prior runs since it’s just getting into range now. Outside its wheelhouse, though, I think?

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

The board of directors have issued a Snowfall Forecast Contest 3.0 Watch for this evening as conditions are favorable for the creation of a new forecast thread. Monitoring…

Can we include Moyock NC as one of the forecast locations

 

[Brandon10]

IMO a lot of the CAMS and short range look warmer south of HWY 64. EURO/EPS/RGEM little cooler in the 264/64 Corridor

One model may show 9"in Pitt county and one shows plain rain.

 

[jackendrickwx]

Gut tells me we get a higher impact version of the first January system around here. I’d be pleasantly surprised if mixing isn’t an issue for mby.

That 64 corridor east of Us-1 tho

 

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

Tar

Can we include Moyock NC as one of the forecast locations

I used to live in Moyock when I was in the Navy. Never thought I'd see it mentioned here in a winter storm thread.

 

[CaryWx]

View attachment 170006

That's at the height of the warm nose? 5pm ET

 

[Webberweather53]

Eric what do you think of the latest RDPS for Raleigh?


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RGEM has a cold bias typically, keep that in mind going forward

 

[Stormlover]

DT first guess.

View attachment 169899

LOL, he acts like nothing happens west of there, that 1 inch curve is crazy

 

[LukeBarrette]

Glad to see that people can down south can do well with these trends and people up here in VA can still see a few inches of fluffy light snow from the stuff that develops in Tennessee.

 

[WxBlue]

 

[Webberweather53]

The first of at least 10-15 call maps from Brad

 

[BullCityWx]

FV3 was probably gonna be 8+ for the northern and western triangle. Another thing that interested me on the NAM was the RH stating decently up in the snow growth zone later in the NAM run as it looks like across those same areas, the DGZ could be as low as the 850 level as it pulls out which would keep snow showers going during the day.

 

[JalenW25]

IMO a lot of the CAMS and short range look warmer south of HWY 64. EURO/EPS/RGEM little cooler in the 264/64 Corridor

One model may show 9"in Pitt county and one shows plain rain.

What's crazy is I live literally like 5 minutes at most from 64 bypass and 15-20 at most from HWY 1 so when I hear HWY 64/1 mentioned in winter storm outlooks I'm like ok does it mean high total, in the middle total, am I dealing with warm nose or all cold, etc.

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[Tsappfrog20]

Not too bad from the GFS!!

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[KyloG]

Really a nice band that sets up through c-NC into e-NC

 

[weather bubba]

I'll admit that I was wondering what RDU was doing when they put such heavy emphasis on icing in their discussion when the models at that point were almost all showing a totally snow event. Now I am seeing the logic behind what they were doing. That 850 nose is rearing its ugly head again and if the latest models continue a NW trend freezing rain becomes an issue for the forecast area.

 

[Stormlover]

 

[Bigedd09]

Not too bad from the GFS!!

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Very interesting that little swath of snow from Greensboro that extends down into meck county. A lot of models have had that

 

[KyloG]

First back to back runs of GFS where it didn't tick S/E

 

[Tsappfrog20]

Very interesting that little swath of snow from Greensboro that extends down into meck county. A lot of models have had that

The GFS also has the deformation band on Thursday


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[Myfrotho704_]

 

[superjames1992]

12z GFS is pretty consistent with 06z, slight improvement, if anything. Warning criteria back to the Triad. I’ll take it. GFS seems like it wants to get the defo band going, but is really light with it. Wonder if its lower resolution is having trouble with that.

 

[mx3gsr92]

Can we include Moyock NC as one of the forecast locations

Ahem!

 

[JalenW25]

View attachment 170013

Dare I ask but I must ask what does the ice look like on that run?

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[Myfrotho704_]

I’d feel much better if I lived on the northern end of the bigger cities in NC that’s for sure (CLT/RAH)

 

[1300m]

RGEM has a cold bias typically, keep that in mind going forward

No doubt RGEM has a cold bias at the surface, but historically anyway, I recall the RGEM being pretty decent with mid-level warm noses such as in January 2017. I'm not saying it hasn't been cold-biased at mid-levels in other events, I just can't recall them - but I'm getting older lol. Do you have some more recent examples where you can recall it being cold biased in the mid levels?

 

[rburrel2]

So far the 12z globals are telling me that the hi-res models can't be discounted. Anything between those two camps on the table, imo.