What's crazy is I think that's the same sounding that Downey used in his tweet
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WolfpackHomer91
Member
There we go, now drop it to 995 and bring it 80 Miles SW and were golden
Current FV3 has my micro location vacillating between sleet and snow. Could be heavy at timesA lot of the precip algorithms were showing that as sleet for RDU, but that looks like a (marginal, wet) snow sounding to me, especially with good rates.
12z RGEM is finally running. Curious if it has a shift at 12z, as well, given potential new data after what the NAM / SREF did. Also, hasn’t it usually finished running by now? Only in the first few hours on WB.
And for the first snowstorm, the NAM was the only one that said that the Triad was going to be mostly sleet while all the other models had them solidly in snow.
Never underestimate the warm nose!
The NAM is great on thermals in the final hours and it should be paid attention to then, but its thermals may be out to lunch at this range if the general setup it’s showing is off, which given it’s the LR NAM, it probably is. Not saying it’s useless, though.
I don’t want a clean transfer. I want it weak. I think the more we can fumble it the better we’ll do back west.
We've started the NW too soon, when will y'all learn 
Wow. The GRAF has snow nearly to I20 near and east of Atlanta.
Which I'm not sure if that's going to happen but can u imagine if Atlanta is able to score on this storm?
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I honestly think the p-type algorithm from those model loops these guys post from it is off. I think it shows snow where it’s actually mixed precip a lot. I remember that being an issue in the January storm. I don’t think it’s an issue with the model itself.
mx3gsr92
Member
We've started the NW too soon, when will y'all learn
This is based off one run of the NAM? Lmaooo
WolfpackHomer91
Member
The strong CAD supports the development path we are on for Western areas of the forum jmo (Im literally the village idiot in here though so take it as you will)
12z RGEM looks like it’s going to come in a little juicer to me, out to hr 36. Hopefully, it doesn’t also flood us with warmth. 
EDIT: We’ll see, though, don’t trust my “modelology” too much.
EDIT: We’ll see, though, don’t trust my “modelology” too much.
rburrel2
Member
It does that when there's an above 850mb warm nose... in this situation it may be doing ok on ptypes though. It'll sniff out boundary layer cooling better than the globals.
That's all, jmo, of course.
LovingGulfLows
Member
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I don't think so. It's going to be a bit too warm here for any snow. That model is definitely out to lunch and probably skews too cold.
WolfpackHomer91
Member
No, off NAM, SREF, Shortly RDPS , FW3 alll 12Z. He knows what hes talking about.... its coming as shown by the newly sampled data
mx3gsr92
Member
Sleet and freezing rain largely occur in the majority of snow storms in Charlotte and Raleigh. This one in particular has had ominous signs of reaching warning criteria ice. It was never off the table. Models are only tools folks. Bare with Raleigh they know how to forecast.
rburrel2
Member
The southern wave is definitely a tad more potent on the 12z ICON compared to 06z. We may have finally kicked the 2 day trend.
True. But I can't help but notice the rain/snow line has been ticking southward with every run for a while now.
It's a shame given the absurd cold nearby for this time of year that the whole area couldn't do more with this system.
so you think we get warning level zr in Wake county?
ForsythSnow
Moderator
It's holding and modeling seems to be running close to this now for the North Metro for ATL. I think if this keeps holding we could look at something footprint wise like Feb 2020 at least here.
rburrel2
Member
ICON was an incredible run for the Upstate and NC foothills.
12z RGEM much juicer for the western Triangle at hr 57. 
12z RGEM is crushing RDU, wow! Backbuilding at hr 63, I may be too far west for the best of it but Wake is getting it.
mx3gsr92
Member
The RDPS was not NW. . . .
Very nice tick from the 06z to 12z RGEM!!! Best RGEM run in a while for central NC. NE NC gets buried, which seems like they have on lock at this point. Note this map is from before any ULL shenanigans on the back end.
Rgem bucked its trend and a bit more juicer
packfan98
Moderator
ICON improved!
RDPS = RGEM and it did tick northwest. Let's be done here.
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
This winter storm has a potential to catch many people by surprise. Especially across Northern MS, Northern AL, Northern GA and parts of the Upstate of SC. There is no winter storm watch even in affect for Mississippi despite the event being well within range just due to uncertainly. Although this is no historic event by any means in this way. If a scenerio occurs like hrrr, GRAF, GFS or RAP then this would be major major impacts on roads likely not being salted.
