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Wintry Feb. 19-20

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Small increase in eastern NC on the latest GEFS


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rburrel2 said:
All i'm asking for here is 2/10th's. Every model has me getting some liquid. Several as low as .05 total liquid, put it looks like the hi-res models want to go closer to 1/2 inch.

I don't think 2/10th's is too much to ask for.
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You and me both...I would love .2" of precip on Wednesday evening. LIttle little snow/sleet would be good.
 
MichaelJ said:
Still many runs left to go before we have a solid handle on the QPF and strength of the storm. However, I see no mechanism for this to trend back to the NW. The last big storm for Fl and the coast gave me zero as no back filling or NW trend occurred, seems to be the pattern this year and persistence is the key word for thjs winter.
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Disagree. That storm was blanking the coast at around this timeframe and ended up slamming them. As far west as the the Triangle got 1-2”.
 
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I have to say, I've been loosely following this system for my friends to the north. With the southern ticks of cold, I'm getting a bit more interested for MBY here east of Atlanta, hoping that the precip will be more robust than currently forecasted here and could be just enough to snow with dynamic cooling. A tenth or so of liquid won't get it done.

Even if it's just a dusting, any accumulation would mark the third time it snowed here this season and I could hang it up until hurricane season.
 
rburrel2 said:
NAM is definitely more favorably tilted with the southern wave. I bet this will be a solid run.
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I'm sitting here seeing the same thing. More moisture in the gulf and a little further north. All of the energy features you mentioned earlier look a little stronger and diggier. The Western ridge was pumped a little stronger. Maybe new data ingested in from the west? Then again, I'm thinking whatever it shows down the line will probably be too amped compared to the other models. Anyway, let's stop the bleeding.
 
It’s just a violent transfer. It sucks every bit of the energy to the Atlantic and deepens rapidly. Leaves nothing. Somebody is getting well over a foot in NC/VA. Had this thing found a way to run up into the NE they’d probably be looking at some 36-48” stripes
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
It’s just a violent transfer. It sucks every bit of the energy to the Atlantic and deepens rapidly. Leaves nothing. Somebody is getting well over a foot in NC/VA. Had this thing found a way to run up into the NE they’d probably be looking at some 36-48” stripes
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That would tell me it's a fast mover then
 
KyloG said:
I make it a point to not look at the SREF because it's usually so bad but the one thing you can take away...it's the first model of any kind that has ticked back west.

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Yall want beleive it. But the Sref was the first model to catch onto the missed Ghaff Jan 2000. Course they all whiffed, but I read that somewhere. So it pulls one out once ever decade.

One of my rule of thumbs, cusswords I hate to hear in this hobby is the word transfer. When you live east of Apps in Carolinas, especially foothills, western Piedmont, and energy transfer is mentioned, Lookout. 99.9 times out of 100, you gonna get jumped/ left with zilch.
 
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