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Wintry Feb. 19-20

Rah NWS AFD interesting and confusing, since they are now introducing more freezing rain for most of it's CWA. Weird considering every model has gone colder, snowier with less qpf but they didn't mention the less qpf part 🤷‍♂️

Edit: I missed the first paragraph where they clearly discuss lower qpf
 
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And the EPS to match. Northern stream squash job.
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packfan98 said:
Well, the 6z euro is starting to limit the decent moisture to the eastern coastal plain. Quite a dry slot to the west.
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You ain't lying, we are on our way to a wiff if this doesn't reverse course soon but so far no signs of that

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We’ve seen so many times where the models will reverse course with the northern stream stuff and say just kidding with the strength of the cold and how far south it is. It’s starting to look like that may not be the case this time, but I’m giving it until 0z tonight.
 
The storm is finally over land in the Western U.S Monday morning. More specifically it is over Washington State. It will get sampled by weather balloons Sunday night and Monday morning, resulting in (hopefully) a clearer picture of what's to come.

-WRAL in their article on this storm at 5:14am

Sent from my A600DL using Tapatalk
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Seems these are usually a few cycles behind. There’s no guidance showing those amounts with that footprint over Virginia right now
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They are only one cycle behind, this one was based off of the 0z model suite, also has some modeling data we do not have access too. And fwiw GFS still did show that snow footprint
 
I don't understand what the NWS in Raleigh is seeing with the emphasis on freezing rain in its discussion. All of the models are showing snow for most of this event and have been trending colder and dryer with each run since midnight. The dryer part concerns me and the southward trend needs to let up soon or most of us are looking at a coastal event with token flakes at best for those in Raleigh north and west. The LP on the last Euro run was weaker and this is troubling because it was the first run after the energy came ashore on the west coast and was sampled.
 
Ncweather said:
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Graf model vs the world 😮‍💨
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Tbf that snow footprint is aligning with most other modeling, it's just more expansive to the SW. The Rgem isn't too far off from that, problem is all of them are still trending wrong direction
 
Still many runs left to go before we have a solid handle on the QPF and strength of the storm. However, I see no mechanism for this to trend back to the NW. The last big storm for Fl and the coast gave me zero as no back filling or NW trend occurred, seems to be the pattern this year and persistence is the key word for thjs winter.
 
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