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Wintry Feb. 19-20

It feels weird being in a rather secure but meh spot, I'm not in the modeled screw zone but I'm nowhere near the modeled jackpot. All the modeling has me between 1-3 inches, though there does seem to be a little bit of boom potential
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
Had a MET answer on Twitter ... Maybe its known knowledge, but he said GRAPH is IBM hi-res is the build. "Its good at big systems ....not so good at weaker events"
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The GRAF hasn’t been terrible this winter. It caught onto the south trends more than most models did in a few cases. It also had moments where it absolutely sucked lol
 
00z UKMET looks like it’s going to come in a little colder than the 18z run to me so far, although similar.

EDIT: Then it heads to disaster. 💀
 
I thought that run was headed for a literal shutout there for a moment. Still end up with a nuisance event for much of central NC and a bigger event close to the coast, but that’s a real warning shot I didn’t expect.
 
kinda not surprised the UK didn’t show much, when things gets suppressed it’s always one of the more suppressed solutions. Gulf mauler was a good ex didn’t have anything for areas that did receive snow when things got suppressed for that storm, and it was the flatter/more suppressed solution for the first storm in Jan.
But map IMG_5822.png
 
did UKMET just dry slot almost the entirety of NC in the main swath of storm aside from filling in a nice 4"+ zone on the NE coast... before showing a decent 1-2" backend snowfall for central NC randomly? what is it even doing?
 
Somehow we still manage this with the UL feature. Sheesh. Buckle your seat belts.

sn10_acc-imp.us_ma.png
 
Im so battered and beaten I sort of like the UK

Gives me .5-1” Wednesday at home then keeps the NW flow pumping into Thursday/Friday for the ride up above 5k feet.

Edit: on second look I think all of that to the south is from that low odds perfect wind direction Lee side streamer near Asheville. Man we are awful
IMG_1606.jpeg
 
It’s drier, but it is colder and is still the same general idea. Fair to say I don’t love the trend here, though.

Trending well for ENC and PGV especially.
 
iGRXY said:
View attachment 169912CLT and GSO crew, welcome to the Sahara with those of us out west. RDU boys, y'all are next.
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Ok….. enough with the South/ Colder trends. Can we all agree now… it’s completely shredded this thing over the last 30 hrs. If you’re somewhere that still needs a south trend …. Well you’re just SoL. We gotta start taking this back NW or it’s about to be game over for EVERYONE not in SEVA/NE-NC INCLUDING Raleigh. I understand “wishing” has nothing to do with the outcome…. But hey, hope all of you that started getting excited for this “trend” yesterday are gonna get what you wanted here in about 72hrs


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
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