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Wintry Feb. 19-20

Myfrotho704_ said:
Best frame… still pretty to look at but starting to become scary knowing what this could look like tomorrow at this time View attachment 169917
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I was about to post this frame. RDU is at 25F on this frame Wednesday evening, pretty beautiful. But yeah the trend is the concern for me at this point.
 
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We finally get legit blocking and consistent below avg temps and cold air source this winter just for the winner to be Pensacola and the outer banks. This is one of those things that really takes the fun out of tracking winter around here if you’re in my neck of the of the woods. We usually are getting robbed of the cold air out west and when we finally have it on our side of the apps this year, it’s drier than a grandpa’s ankle and everything is being shoved to the coast.
 
superjames1992 said:
I was about to post this frame. RDU is at 25F on this frame Wednesday evening, pretty beautiful. But yeah the trend is for concern for me at this point.
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Being in the bullseye 4 days out has been and will always be the kiss of death. If something doesn’t change soon, this is going to be an I95 East event at best. I’d be sweating bullets if I was in the RDU locale. The trend has been shifting further and further south and east every run and it hasn’t let up yet. I mean the euro is cutting totals in half for everybody every run unless you’re near the coast.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Okay, we stop this tonight and gain more QPF starting at 06z right.. View attachment 169918
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i mean when our lightest green precip hues are now back towards I-95 what’s the point any more. I’d rather lose it entirely. I think that would be more memorable at this point
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Thats my thinking. Maybe some more lower QPF runs tonight, then we start the other direction tomorrow-Tuesday. Even the gulf mauler had that last second upward QPF trends mainly because models started to recognize the jet streak aloft and were to dry in the low levels. Low levels aren’t gonna be this dry to start out this go around that we have to fight. And the overrunning precip before the main coastal is driven by warm air advection
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Still gonna stick to this
 
Just to put this in perspective … mby and the northern upstate went from 4-6” to at best a half an inch now. CLT has gone from 5-8” south to north to 1.5”. GSO and Winston Salem has gone from over a foot to 2”. RDU has gone from over a foot to 4-6” mean. And these are getting cut in half every run. Even Wake county has gone from over 1” of QPF to barely 0.5” in about 3 runs. I want to say there should be more QPF back west and maybe we start seeing that come back in the next day and a half but right now the trend is drier and drier every run and it hasn’t slowed down a bit. In fact it’s picking up steam. I’m telling you, if I'm west of 95 right now, I could care less what these models are showing, I’d be sweating like crazy
 
iGRXY said:
Just to put this in perspective … mby and the northern upstate went from 4-6” to at best a half an inch now. CLT has gone from 5-8” south to north to 1.5”. GSO and Winston Salem has gone from over a foot to 2”. RDU has gone from over a foot to 4-6” mean. And these are getting cut in half every run. Even Wake county has gone from over 1” of QPF to barely 0.5” in about 3 runs. I want to say there should be more QPF back west and maybe we start seeing that come back in the next day and a half but right now the trend is drier and drier every run and it hasn’t slowed down a bit. In fact it’s picking up steam. I’m telling you, if I'm west of 95 right now, I could care less what these models are showing, I’d be sweating like crazy
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Are you basing these totals on just one particular model?
 
iGRXY said:
Just to put this in perspective … mby and the northern upstate went from 4-6” to at best a half an inch now. CLT has gone from 5-8” south to north to 1.5”. GSO and Winston Salem has gone from over a foot to 2”. RDU has gone from over a foot to 4-6” mean. And these are getting cut in half every run. Even Wake county has gone from over 1” of QPF to barely 0.5” in about 3 runs. I want to say there should be more QPF back west and maybe we start seeing that come back in the next day and a half but right now the trend is drier and drier every run and it hasn’t slowed down a bit. In fact it’s picking up steam. I’m telling you, if I'm west of 95 right now, I could care less what these models are showing, I’d be sweating like crazy
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on euro alone i've gone from 20 inches of snow to 3
 
iGRXY said:
Just to put this in perspective … mby and the northern upstate went from 4-6” to at best a half an inch now. CLT has gone from 5-8” south to north to 1.5”. GSO and Winston Salem has gone from over a foot to 2”. RDU has gone from over a foot to 4-6” mean. And these are getting cut in half every run. Even Wake county has gone from over 1” of QPF to barely 0.5” in about 3 runs. I want to say there should be more QPF back west and maybe we start seeing that come back in the next day and a half but right now the trend is drier and drier every run and it hasn’t slowed down a bit. In fact it’s picking up steam. I’m telling you, if I'm west of 95 right now, I could care less what these models are showing, I’d be sweating like crazy
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the problem is it’s now just a coastal and those can only get moisture back so far west on a good day. CLT maybe if the stars align but even that is a mega reach. We need this thing to be what it was a couple days ago. It’s a totally different storm now unless we perform a miracle with the intial overrunning before the transfer. Which we won’t
 
6z NAM Ptype and 850 mb FGEN.
The energy transfer off the coast hurts the western 3rd of NC.
 

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06z RGEM


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