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Wintry Feb. 19-20

RBR71 said:
Tbf that snow footprint is aligning with most other modeling, it's just more expansive to the SW. The Rgem isn't too far off from that, problem is all of them are still trending wrong direction
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I guess I'm more talking about the western North Carolina dry slot which is much less showing with the Graf compared to others. Rgem has a dusting in this area compared to 4-5. The trend still isn't anyone's friend rn I completely agree.
 
weather bubba said:
I don't understand what the NWS in Raleigh is seeing with the emphasis on freezing rain in its discussion. All of the models are showing snow for most of this event and have been trending colder and dryer with each run since midnight. The dryer part concerns me and the southward trend needs to let up soon or most of us are looking at a coastal event with token flakes at best for those in Raleigh north and west. The LP on the last Euro run was weaker and this is troubling because it was the first run after the energy came ashore on the west coast and was sampled.
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Agreed. It's like it was written by someone who only started tracking this thing during their shift, and didn't see how much freezing rain was being thrown around here about 2 days ago. I dunno.
 
Bigedd09 said:
Also, FWIW 09 SREF was better for many in the western carolinas
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I HATE THE SREF! Full stop. I think it’s a terrible model. However, it is factored into the National blend of Models and you can also see its influence in some of the NWS snow prediction graphics. I fully expect it to continue to come in line with other models in the next couple of runs.
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I mean this with 100% Disrespect.....Bernie Rayno fishing for views just said on his live "I never trust QPF maps or surface I only look at 500 charts and thats it" "This isnt being shown properly on surface maps for what it shows at 500mb, 4-8" DC, 3-6 NYC , and 2-4" Boston" Ok again im sorry what an absolute moron. Absolutely NOTHING on this planet shows that outcome. "Folks ik its fun, but sometimes you gotta put the models down and know what youre actually looking at" Still ik what im actually looking at, and thats a DA on my screen wishcasting
 
I also am a little confused by all of the major models that are showing a huge swath of freezing rain and sleet. unless I am mistaken, most Miller A low pressures, have a very thin dividing line between snow and rain, not a massive swath of mixed precipitation. Now that could be reflecting more overrunning than anything else.
 


Again, where are these guys that are actually Mets finding all this QPF we aren’t seeing? And all this ICE? Ross, Webber someone ? I mean what are they seeing we can’t? Do yall have secret models public doesn’t have?


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I truly think the only hope for areas back in western piedmont would be from the little disturbance Thursday morning that FRO has been talking about. That would be some high ration stuff and if overperforms could drop 1-3 inches in some places that don't cash in on Wednesday
 
SD said:
Much rather be chasing precip than trying to pull a sfc low back SE.
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Cold first, moisture second. Though this year, ironically, we've had pretty much the opposite problem all season.

The energy should hopefully be fully sampled by 12z, so maybe, possibly, hopefully we will see some kind of a better trend.
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:


Again, where are these guys that are actually Mets finding all this QPF we aren’t seeing? And all this ICE? Ross, Webber someone ? I mean what are they seeing we can’t? Do yall have secret models public doesn’t have?


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If you don't have saturation in the dendritic growth zone, you will get superceded liquid reaching the ground.... even if the entire column is below freezing. That's what they are referring to.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
If you don't have saturation in the dendritic growth zone, you will get superceded liquid reaching the ground.... even if the entire column is below freezing. That's what they are referring to.
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This why isnt anything showing that? Or is this what theyre all saying by put the computer down and know what youre actually doing ? lol
 
SD said:
Much rather be chasing precip than trying to pull a sfc low back SE.
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I know it wasn't huge but people tend to forget, even the gulf coast monster last month shifted the precip shield back NW within last 24 hrs. Many areas had zero on modeling and ended up with an inch or more of fluff.
 
One thing we need to keep in mind when we see TV mets and weather agency/outlet mets talking about or putting out a forecast is the following:

Social media weather warriors = model huggers.

Professional meteorologists = forecasters.

Pros use science, expertise, and experience and don't rely on a singular model or model cycle.

Just like the ZR explanation above, there are things happening in the atmosphere that largely aren't being considered in here.

That said, the trends have been very clear. If you take that at face value, then your official forecast might call for a dusting to a couple inches with ice in spots.

On the other hand, your forecasting experience may tell you that you should not be so hasty with that call because you've seen situations like this turn around. Therefore, you maintain higher totals in your forecast.
 
packfan98 said:
I HATE THE SREF! Full stop. I think it’s a terrible model. However, it is factored into the National blend of Models and you can also see its influence in some of the NWS snow prediction graphics. I fully expect it to continue to come in line with other models in the next couple of runs.
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The one good thing that the SREF does is that it will give you an idea of what the following NAM suite will look like. Which we’re getting to the time frame that we can start to pay attention to the NAM. Also I’m guessing that with better data sampling going into the models it might give an idea of how other modeling might go, but who knows
 
RBR71 said:
I know it wasn't huge but people tend to forget, even the gulf coast monster last month shifted the precip shield back NW within last 24 hrs. Many areas had zero on modeling and ended up with an inch or more of fluff.
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That’s why I keep rolling my eyes at the comments saying there’s no NW trend this year. Even the 1/10 storm had a NW shift in the last 24 hours. Now I’ve said that I don’t expect this to have a huge shift NW like we’ve seen before but I still think there will be some. There’s still a SER out there to affect things some that’s stronger than it was for the 1/21 storm and the cold push isnt as strong as it was for that one either. Also the the jet dynamics overhead as well are very indicative that precip should be much more expansive back to the NW
 
Rain Cold said:
One thing we need to keep in mind when we see TV mets and weather agency/outlet mets talking about or putting out a forecast is the following:

Social media weather warriors = model huggers.

Professional meteorologists = forecasters.

Pros use science, expertise, and experience and don't rely on a singular model or model cycle.

Just like the ZR explanation above, there are things happening in the atmosphere that largely aren't being considered in here.

That said, the trends have been very clear. If you take that at face value, then your official forecast might call for a dusting to a couple inches with ice in spots.

On the other hand, your forecasting experience may tell you that you should not be so hasty with that call because you've seen situations like this turn around. Therefore, you maintain higher totals in your forecast.
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Thanks @Rain Cold exactly my thoughts. We do this or at least most of us for a hobby. They (the meteorologist) do this for a job and have a full on education on weather. Not that they aren't wrong sometimes but in general I always feel like they have a pretty good handle on things. No one can predict the weather 100%.

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