NCSNOW
Member
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rburrel2
Member
This doesn't really affect NC, sorry guys.
But the trends with the Southern wave on the RAP/Hrr/NAM are absolutely awesome for Northern MS/AL/GA and even the Western Upstate where I am.
Who knows if it's legit or not though.
But the trends with the Southern wave on the RAP/Hrr/NAM are absolutely awesome for Northern MS/AL/GA and even the Western Upstate where I am.
Who knows if it's legit or not though.
What happened overnight. Geez. Storm went poof!
Nam is going to smoke along and east of us1 with something
rburrel2
Member
Atlanta gonna Bull crap there way to another 2 inch snow while most of NC gets nearly blanked... Surely it can't happen again, right?
TigerSnow
Member
I’m not sure of the storm/storms but in the past I know us Western NC/Charlotte area folks have had this transfer rob moisture before and we get skipped so it’s not unprecedented. It’s unfortunate but this seems to be the case again.
The nam looks better, hopefully we’ve stopped the bleeding. It’s had weird holes in its precip depiction all year. It will fill in.
Well hello, a little backside snow showers for Alabama.
blueheronNC
Member
Thing goes hammerhead once energy transfers to coastal. Not a bad look at all
Bigedd09
Member
Ya'll the nam looks decent
The moisture rob for western NC and VA is a definite? Or could we trend to something a little more robust?
packfan98
Moderator
Heights out in front are definitely a little higher. Might get a little pivot and late blooming action for NE NC. Metwannabe special???
packfan98
Moderator
Went from a 1006 mb out to sea low to this:
Tsappfrog20
Member
Not a horrible look from the NAM for RDU!!
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
NCSNOW
Member
Making an effort at a deform band back side. gets it up your way this run. Accums are paltry central ENC, suprisingly.
ChattaVOL
Member
Didn’t the early January storm lose precip about 48 hours out.. and it bounced back
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Downeastnc
Member
Hoping for Feb 24 1989 redux....14" here. Need it to slow down a bit this would allow time for it to get more precip further west...need the block to a actually do it's job for once.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Honestly, shows rain PTYPE on map, but....
packfan98
Moderator
DC gets more than Raleigh. Sounds right.
WolfpackHomer91
Member
ActuaLLY In all honesty with this trajectory I could see upstate beating NC Piedmont too...yall get JUST ENOUGHT time with it before that absolutely wicked transfer to the Atlantic and we dont lol
rburrel2
Member
lolz
12z vs. 06z NAM total precip. Unfortunately, there’s a lot of mixing for C / E NC.
Southern Track
Member
There's my def band lol.
packfan98
Moderator
Yeah, 3k NAM looks better for western areas, and it usually fills in more in the 24 hour range.
blueheronNC
Member
Spits out 0.6” QPF for Raleigh as mainly sleet. I’d take that QPF to the bank which is far improved from 06z and then see how the thermals play out.
NCSNOW
Member
FV3
QPF is .2" higher (for a total > .5") than 6z at RDU. But it looks like almost all sleet except for a little snow on the backside.
Tsappfrog20
Member
Yeah, I think the biggest difference is that the extreme precip cutoff is much further west than 06z. But like you said it’s mostly sleet. So verbatim it’s actually terrible for the Triangle. LR NAM, though…
Perhaps we are seeing something different in the 12z runs so far, though. Would certainly like to see more of this uptick in QPF.
beanskip
Member
You know you've got some killer ratios in SE Va. when the Kuchera is considerably higher than the regular snow total.
rburrel2
Member
Our hopes and dreams are pinned on fresh data sampling of the southern wave this morning and not the CAM's/Hi-res models just being bad. We really need the globals to jump on board here in a few minutes.
Ok
rburrel2
Member
JMO, but it's still too early to understand how this is going to evolve. There will be major winners and losers. The key today is just getting a stronger wave/stronger storm so we have more winners and less losers in general.
But the models are all over the place as to how this thing shapes up and who gets what and where.
The dreaded snow hole has shown up all over the place on the modeling. Could be my backyard, could be big frosty, could be charlotte, even a small chance it could be Raleigh though they look the most safe.
But the models are all over the place as to how this thing shapes up and who gets what and where.
The dreaded snow hole has shown up all over the place on the modeling. Could be my backyard, could be big frosty, could be charlotte, even a small chance it could be Raleigh though they look the most safe.
A lot of the precip algorithms were showing that as sleet for RDU, but that looks like a (marginal, wet) snow sounding to me, especially with good rates.
where CAD?!
Feel foolish even doing this with how rubbish guidance is now, but the warm nose at RDU on the 12z NAM is very small. With it's tendency to be too far north, this was overall an encouraging run.
