Avalanche
Member
We got a dusting of snow then quickly changed to sleet when the radar was depitcting snow. Did this several hours
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The 12z UKMET is starting to come in. Hoping to see the storm get brought back after being mostly lost SE on the 00z and 06z runs…
ChattaVOL
Member
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interestedclimatist
Member
Where can we see the GRAF? I know it’s hard to find unless your a tv station but I’ve seen some posts about it
It's only available from them. It's a news station thing. Now I am sure someone out there has access somehow. But Danial Bonds out of CAE is fantastic about showing it.
rburrel2
Member
15z RAP
we hug.
we hug.
Yeah, my understanding is that it is a private venture where they keep the data and output proprietary and then license it out to news stations (and maybe other vendors?) for a profit, so no way for us common folk to see it, for better or for worse. But like you said Bonds seems to share it a lot, though it would be nice to see lore of the data underlying it since I think the P-type algorithms might be off.
Uk is probably gonna remain with less QPF knowing how it handles lower QPF situations, but if it comes back I’ll be surprised
rburrel2
Member
congrats Mid South
rburrel2
Member
Here's the latest GFS graphcast: 00z. It's very juicy overall, but same footprint as Euro/AIFS. I would gladly take this.
rburrel2
Member
I'm actually feeling really good about 1-3 inches for the Upstate back to Charlotte.
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Another request can this thing slow down a bit? I mean goodness gracious its absolutely Hauling on some of the mods now.
EDIT : UK shredding it apart again at hr 48 like 6z...... I blanks us all from the looks of it
EDIT : UK shredding it apart again at hr 48 like 6z...... I blanks us all from the looks of it
rburrel2
Member
Pretty sure the UK had like nothing for anyone in GA/SC/NC even a day before the Coastal Mauler.
Yeah, to me it looks like it’s going to be better than the last couple runs, but I don’t think it’s going to be nearly as good as the other modeling.
EDIT: Yeah, pretty ugly run, LOL. Probably better than 06z, but a miss is a miss. I know this supposedly plays into its bias, but I’d rather it not be skunking us, especially when it was a big hit yesterday.
Bigedd09
Member
UK literally shows no precip. Is it reliable at this range?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The UKMET was way too far south with the last big event in DC-BAL earlier this winter in a similar overall setup. Expecting that to be the case here too
RDUHeatIsland
Member
It's been too suppressed for basically every storm this year, especially at this range
UNCSC
Member
The upstate and foothills seem like there is no way to score here. Temps will be 34-35, with warm soil temps. This feels like some fat flurries Wednesday and that’s it. With such little QPF, higher rates will be very hard to find unless we get very lucky.
There’s already been more surprises than usual. A few more would be a safe bet
Yeah the 12z Ukie didn't get the memo lol. I stand by my statement that qpf will not be an issue, especially eastern 2/3 of NC
UK is like the UNC Tarheels of modelling...gets a lot of hype, ranked high but sucks and loses at game time.
I'd still take this...0.5" of snow...0.5" more than Raleigh has had in over 5 years in a Feb.
I'd still take this...0.5" of snow...0.5" more than Raleigh has had in over 5 years in a Feb.
Beautiful snow hole on the UKMET. RDU gets fringed and even Moyock only gets a few inches. We toss!
It’s got a few ULL stringers in SC.
It’s got a few ULL stringers in SC.
WolfpackHomer91
Member
its really keying in on that Deform on backside back west though through foothills
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Amounts are different, but the snowfall footprint looks somewhat similar to the Euro, Canadian,12z RGEM fwiw
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NCSNOW
Member
Ride the 12z JMA boys. Watch and see how accurate its qpf field is from 12z today. By this time tomorrow in model world, they all(cams) will look like that.
Ukmet is best useful for H5 sniffing things out mid range Days 4-7 imo.
Ukmet is best useful for H5 sniffing things out mid range Days 4-7 imo.
One thing I hate about transferring and coastal development is having to wait for precip to "blossom". Easier when you have a precip shield moving in
Yeah….I would think it has higher bust potential one way or the other, too.
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Isnt UKMET a precursor to the EURO ? or is that not a thing anymore ? I mean we preach EE Rule when it works for us, if EURO is a mirror image at 1PM shouldnt we treat the same ? I mean it cant be the EE rule only when it benefits us
EE Rule is the Euro-ETA (the NAM) when they agree within 48 hours and honestly probably hasn’t been a real thing in years, just a meme.
rburrel2
Member
Take away the ukmets warm surface bias and it's giving Atlanta 5 inches. Lol
Edit: This is the 00z run, sorry. Pivotal got me again.
Edit: This is the 00z run, sorry. Pivotal got me again.
If that flow behind it comes in at the correct angle someone on the lee side is getting an inch or two
NCSNOW
Member
Northern Randolph/Southern Guilford 12Z: Waiting on Euro
3.75-4+
GFS
FV3
Icon
JMA
Graphcast
Less than 2 Inches
Nam
RDPS
Canadian Op
Ukmet ( whiff)
3.75-4+
GFS
FV3
Icon
JMA
Graphcast
Less than 2 Inches
Nam
RDPS
Canadian Op
Ukmet ( whiff)
interestedclimatist
Member
yeah we toss the UKMET just bc that QPF is not happening
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Wrong.... that's not the EE rule..... ETA and Euro is the EE rule.
The euro so far actually coming in a tad bit stronger with our wave out west, it was on a 5 run trend decline, reversed it this run
rburrel2
Member
Yep, the Euro is not worse, finally. Maybe a tick better with qpf over the upstate. Same overall footprint as GFS/AIFS... now we just need to trend a little wetter in the finally 48hrs and I bet we will, considering all the cams/hi res models are way wetter...
packfan98
Moderator
Euro dried out east of the mountains for sure
rburrel2
Member
The 12z Ukmet has some .3 and .4 inch liquid totals in the upstate from those streamers Thursday morning. That would be something if true.
ULL snow uptrending on the euro 