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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

1300m said:
Wow. I know where a rapidly developing surface low better appear based on this!

namconus_uv250_us_50.png
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Yeah umm lol that low is nowhere close to the best jet dynamics. Should be about 100-150 miles further west based on that alone...
 
1300m said:
Isn't it pretty obvious where the surface low should be tracking with a neg tilted H5 trough and this setting out there? If the low doesn't adjust significantly further west with this setup I'm going to have to go back to school for a while.
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You're good man, absent a drastic change at H5 the primary surface reflection will pass >150 miles off ILM and ~100 miles off HAT, a miss on the MA, followed by a paste bomb for BOS. .
 
You guys around CAE, do not believe some of the wishcasting in here. It's a very low chance as of now without earlier phasing.
 
Stormsfury said:
snku_acc.us_se.png

That's just to the end of the NAM run on Kuchera ratio..
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As I'm sure you saw, the 18Z NAM clobbers practically the entire GA/SC/far NE FL immediate coast with 0.75" of qpf, the best run of any model yet except the 6Z ICON clobber! So, 0.75" of qpf that is practically all wintry. The 0.50" line now goes inland 50+ miles much of SE. A bullseye of 1.5" is 25 miles offshore Hilton Head. Often the NAM is wet biased. So, I'm quite wary about that. However, even if the qpf is cut in half, this is still a major hit. Also, the trend has been wetter. So, these amounts may not be as inflated as usual, if at all.
 
GaWx said:
As I'm sure you saw, the 18Z NAM clobbers practically the entire GA/SC/far NE FL immediate coast with 0.75" of qpf, the best run of any model yet except the 6Z ICON clobber! So, 0.75" of qpf that is practically all wintry. The 0.50" line now goes inland 50+ miles much of SE. A bullseye of 1.5" is 25 miles offshore Hilton Head. Often the NAM is wet biased. So, I'm quite wary about that. However, even if the qpf is cut in half, this is still a major hit. Also, the trend has been wetter. So, these amounts may not be as inflated as usual, if at all.
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My drunken map I made you quickly last night ended up verifying on the newer NAM. That's just silly! I think you stand a chance with this one, surely!
 
Looks like our secondary wave is a little stronger, likely translating to a bit quicker soon.
 
Shawn said:
Look at the RH maps. Its a very sharp cutoff with moisture in the upper atmosphere.
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I did. I see the sharp cut off. If the current models gave the ultimate solution of what was going to happen Wednesday then yeh, no snow for us. But until the West trend stops, I don't think saying CAE is still in the game is all that ridiculous.
 
GFS a bit quicker with wave interaction. Won't be worse, that's for sure.
 
Shawn said:
Here is the 18z NAM around the CAE area; we shall see:
I mean i don't wanna get my hopes up and have them shot down either man. But I guess time will tell lol I'm secretly loving these trends though.

2017123118_NAM_078_34.01_-80.65_winter_ml.png
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Myrtle Beach, OBX. Not a horrible run! Think 12z may have been a bit better for those areas.
 
If the GFS can't get the low right even within short range, then why bother lol? It definitely looks like it should be closer to the coast.
 
I think the convective problem may be back, but I am not sure. Here is a map to hopefully figure it out: (@ 850 its a bit messy too)

gfs_z500_vort_seus_13.png
 
Looks like overall, the low was a tick West. But the precip field doesn't reflect that.
 
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