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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

LithiaWx said:
Good luck NC/SC/VA looks like the fate of my location is going to be a Snow/Sleet/Freezing Rain deal. I'm really hoping for more sleet than ice. I've heard the magic number for destructive ice is about .75". The totals keep creeping higher towards that .75"
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hate to be the bearer of bad news but in my experience 1/3 of an inch of ice is when smaller branches start breaking, power starts flickering, and you begin to have a bad time
 
tractor girl said:
Roads will be extremely hazardous most all weekend, especially tomorrow afternoon into late night, and again Saturday night into Sunday (when low temps will reach the teens for Athens and the upper corner of SC and into NC)



View attachment 162006
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Those temps are based on the GFS model's snow depth. Models that show ice/rain in N. GA instead of snow have temps 10 degrees warmer in that region on Sunday morning.
 
I hate to speak in absolutes but nowhere is gonna see 0.75” ice in GA, SC or NC. Follow the experts like the NWS and WPC. They have the most extreme ice chance of 0.25” at 10-20% chance north-east of Atlanta, GA. Cold rain does not mean ice. That’s called freezing rain.
 
YetAnotherRDUGuy said:
Every county in NC under WWW or WWA except for New Hanover and Brunswick, which doesn't happen too often. 2/3rds of SC isn't too shabby either.

And I reckon congrats Tenn for the entire state being under a warning.
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I wonder if the entire states of OK, AR, TN, and KY have ever been under winter weather products at the same time before.
 
packfan98 said:
Maybe because the above freezing warm nose is close to the ground it doesn’t have time to refreeze?
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Yeah...I think your right. That's going to suck so bad.
 
chapelhillwx said:
I wonder if the entire states of OK, AR, TN, and KY have ever been under winter weather products at the same time before.
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Yea, all of those at same time is tough to pull off--that's a lot of mileage west to east.

I'd bet $$ TN and KY are the most common states to be under products simultaniously. (at least of those you mentioned)
 
BirdManDoomW said:
GFS early Saturday. 32-33+ would be cold rain. Major icing would not be on the fringe areas. Melting actually does start overnight due to track of the low. View attachment 162004
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You're in danger using the GFS model using temps on a depiction of a SFC low cutting well inland thru an in-situ wedge.
I wouldn't call that exactly prudent
 
BirdManDoomW said:
I hate to speak in absolutes but nowhere is gonna see 0.75” ice in GA, SC or NC. Follow the experts like the NWS and WPC. They have the most extreme ice chance of 0.25” at 10-20% chance north-east of Atlanta, GA. Cold rain does not mean ice. That’s called freezing rain.
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I agree. This system seems too fast to accumulate that much ice. Good luck folks!
 
FallsLake said:
The GFS has lower snow/sleet totals for areas like ours, but this would still be a bad winter storm coming towards us:

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Yeah I think this overall uptick in qpf has pushed us from a pretty Saturday morning into I'm worried about power outages. The good thing is with no good CAD feed the freezing rain should limit itself the bad thing if we substantially wet bulb it might be a long climb to 32.1
 
KyloG said:
Lets see who wins...the american models are solidly north of RGEM/Euro for NC.

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How ever many years of tracking these and seeing the NAM with a giant warm nose and i still don't fully buy it. Broad SW flow in the mid levels makes me think the warm nose wins eventually for a lot of people, lack of a well defined strong mid level low makes me wonder if the NAM verifies too warm aloft. More snow/sleet to start vs the NAMs, probably more sleet/freezing rain getting north than some of the other models would be my guess
 
BHS1975 said:
How is it doing so far in TX?
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I’m not a met, so please take what I say with a grain of salt. But it does appear to be initializing warmer than what the real time is producing. They appear to have sleet/ice where cold rain was the Nam’s plan. But for real, there are better people to ask than me. Anyone else care to help? I’m interested too in the answer from the more trained folk.
 
SD said:
How ever many years of tracking these and seeing the NAM with a giant warm nose and i still don't fully buy it. Broad SW flow in the mid levels makes me think the warm nose wins eventually for a lot of people, lack of a well defined strong mid level low makes me wonder if the NAM verifies too warm aloft. More snow/sleet to start vs the NAMs, probably more sleet/freezing rain getting north than some of the other models would be my guess
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FWIW - the NAM was definitely too warm last weekend with the VA storm. It had the snow line a good bit further north than the RGEM and Euro. Now that it appears the NAM was off it's rocker with the solution from 00z, it's most likely safe to assume it is at least somewhat too warm here.
 
jrips27 said:
It’s been almost 6 years since the Atlanta airport recorded 1 inch or more of snow. Hope everyone is sending good mojo this way ❄️❄️
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One of my meteorology major friends told me this morning he is from Atlanta. He said he said he was upset at the prediction that they were going to see more than Raleigh. Hopefully for your sake it works out… but not for my sake
 
1300m said:
FWIW - the NAM was definitely too warm last weekend with the VA storm. It had the snow line a good bit further north than the RGEM and Euro. Now that it appears the NAM was off it's rocker with the solution from 00z, it's most likely safe to assume it is at least somewhat too warm here.
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It's about time for the bad model runs to start trickling in the way things have gone this week. Bad in evenings, better in mornings
 
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