12z GFS has a small event in the mountains on 1/2
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Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC
- Thread starter SD
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Just caught that thanks to @1300m !
Man something is lurking.. Just need work. 
Not far off. Need this trough axis a little further west to give it some legs to dig and tilt. I still believe this 1/3 to 1/6 window is ripe for rapid cyclogenesis off the east coast.
Got to slow that down a bit. May get some precip back to the OB for this one.
Look at all that energy in the east Pacific. Fast flow. If we had a 50/50, man.
GFS tried to close it off, dang, some of us don't need as much shift as others lol... I'd take a slight shift west and just a smidge more digging please.
Lol
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Yeah looks like a real nice one for areas north of 40/85. It at least changes over for all of the state as well.
Prestige Worldwide
Member
solid doinker right there.
There is some solid GEFS ensemble support for something around 1/2-1/3.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
GEFS is likely far from done correcting to the EPS
Maybe it doesn't correct as far east and we end up with a blend.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Maybe it doesn't correct as far east and we end up with a blend.
I doubt it because the background state supports the eps
So the background state supports the more eastern trough developing or is that too fine a resolution to determine at this point
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Euro has a light event for NC on 1/7 along with the GFS.
D
Deleted member 609
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GEFS throwing some decent events through 300.
Snowlover34
Member
Can you post the amounts a little bit to the left
EPS finally bucked the pac jet trend 
If we could just back this up some and pull back the Pacific jet a little, this could have a chance. At this lead, anything could happen. 1/3 to 1/6 is the first window to watch and has been. This could go from 0 to 100 real quick with a few adjustments IMO.
EPS & GEFS really drop the snow mean South AFTER that first weekend of January.
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My guess is there's gonna be either one gigantic coastal bomb or several medium coastal bombs.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This pattern through the first week of January really is a near repeat of early to mid December.
Cold and dry for the most part.
Outside of a fast moving clipper system, it’s probably not until the 2nd week of January or so that things will open up more.
Cold and dry for the most part.
Outside of a fast moving clipper system, it’s probably not until the 2nd week of January or so that things will open up more.
100% I really think it's after the first weekend of January when an opportunity emerges for many on the board (if one does)
29 skews it though.
SnowwxAtl
Member
Can you bring the clipper this time to ATL?
I will take flurries at this point!
Best not to get caught up in the operationals right now. They will swing wildly as the spread of outcomes in the pattern past 200 hours is quite drastic on most ensembles.
There is cause for excitement as the general sentiment is that there will be plenty of cold air around January 1-10. That’s the biggest piece needed for winter weather all across the US and including the Deep South.
I believe some will miss out but a lot could cash in. But no one should expect any concrete storm to show up soon as the models are still having a tough time with the overall pattern and pieces of energy flying around. There will be many wild swings over the next few days.
There is cause for excitement as the general sentiment is that there will be plenty of cold air around January 1-10. That’s the biggest piece needed for winter weather all across the US and including the Deep South.
I believe some will miss out but a lot could cash in. But no one should expect any concrete storm to show up soon as the models are still having a tough time with the overall pattern and pieces of energy flying around. There will be many wild swings over the next few days.
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Okay that explains the higher amounts toward the tidewater and NENC.
I know it goes out to the 11th, but 80% hit percentage during that time frame is pretty good.
Not bad for the Armpit of Hell.
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Yup. For my closest location, we're at 74% which is the best i've seen this year.
i feel a littler better about this window than early december. early december looked drier than british humour from the jump. ensembles seem to markedly more excited about the first week of january in comparison
wow
Member
Best ive seen in years
Pulling out the weenie card a bit, but as we look down the road (late Jan and after), it's possible that the going tendency this winter may help us out. That is, the tendency of too much momentum in the Pac Jet may help when the indicators are pushing toward Pac Jet retraction / -PNA / SE ridging.
The MJO has some variance in terms of how it impacts the pattern, on average, as you work thru the winter months...but this is what the pattern looked like the last time the MJO was in 3-4-5 from Nov 22 to Dec 21.
The MJO has some variance in terms of how it impacts the pattern, on average, as you work thru the winter months...but this is what the pattern looked like the last time the MJO was in 3-4-5 from Nov 22 to Dec 21.