strongwxnc
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Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC
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weatherfide
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I can see Athens, GA -.9, Atlanta, 0, Columbus, GA, -.8. So all of these locations will end solidly above average, probably about 1 to 3 degrees. Those 70 degree days did a real number on the averages. Using the Atlanta monthly average of 48, I'm currently at 44, so I might stay at or below average at my Tempest location.
AI model is a storm printer 
I'm kinda convinced that the cold will last so long as there's no moisture to work with,
So if moisture is coming back in day 3,
We warm!
Day 7,
We warm!
Day 20,
We warm!
It can stay cold so long as we don't have moisture is the new norm!
GEFS Vs the AI model centered around the same time
kinda beginning to hate the ai for this reason
From what I have learned from this model is that it could be decent as figuring out a storm signal for a timeframe. It seems like it did pretty well with that in December. What I question big time is if it has some sort of cold bias.
griteater
Member
The Euro AI has had mixed results with its long-range ideas over the past month. It was good with the early Dec cold and the current cold snap (although it was too bold with the western ridge), but it was awful with missing the upcoming Gulf of AK low and mild/warm pattern (it wanted to keep western ridging going, a big miss).
Anyway, the last 2 runs have some nice features. Good Greenland blocking with a steady feed of low pressure underneath - has the look of a block that will last more than a day. And with more momentum working across the N Pacific, trying to prevent the cold from staying out west. We can do some damage with these looks
Anyway, the last 2 runs have some nice features. Good Greenland blocking with a steady feed of low pressure underneath - has the look of a block that will last more than a day. And with more momentum working across the N Pacific, trying to prevent the cold from staying out west. We can do some damage with these looks
The first of the 12Z runs, the ICON rejects the GFS idea of a western trough to ring in the New Year and is in alignment with the Euro and CMC. Nice start.
No wasted cold here. #wins
Dang bro. 
We Might be back 
Euro staying consistent believe it or not with a good look at least. Still such a long way to go. Would definitely be more excited if the EPS holds and if the GEFS at least comes back a bit 
Was probably gonna go for round 2 as well with overrunning 
I believe that is 3 runs in a row? We are getting inside 300 hours now lol
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I don’t put really any stock in operational models that far out, no matter how good their skill scores are. Deterministic forecasts really have no net value beyond 7-10 days lead time (& that’s being generous). I’d be more interested in seeing an AIFS ensemble mean forecast
The GEPS ain't really a fan of the first cold shot/first weekend of January either. But it does drop the hammer shortly after.
This is where the differences occur. The GEFS and EPS disagree on what’s occuring in the GOA. The EPS drops a S/W trough in the GOA that kicks the trough east, which could become a primer for another wave like the euro hints at. The GEFS is flat and stagnant and there’s nothing to kick it so it gets stuck in the SW. EPS about to diverge significantly past this point 
Considering the hold back SW bias that the Euro has, probably see a trend in the future of it holding it back and then trending back east (not sure if it's the range where it does this bias)