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Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC

Mitch West said:
I just don't think we will have the cold air establish for most on here in that period. Not trying to be negative, but I personally don't think the first weekend of January (give or take a day) is our storm if there is one. It could be for some though. I think our opportunity comes several days into January.
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Yeah, you are probably right…hopefully by mid January cold might be in place.
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
Post one for Columbia SC please ?
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This evolution is gold. Not far off from something KU esque either. The Aleutian low being that strong is gonna feed lots of energy through the WC ridge. But just the overall progression. Get the intial CP flow into the U.S. and the cold then switch to a pac that’s far more active after with just more of a +PNA. Some big big storms fit this evolution. Normally we just go from a pattern with not much cold to a WC ridge and cold rain it away, but this time this is not the case. IMG_2544.gif
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This evolution is gold. Not far off from something KU esque either. The Aleutian low being that strong is gonna feed lots of energy through the WC ridge. But just the overall progression. Get the intial CP flow into the U.S. and the cold then switch to a pac that’s far more active after with just more of a +PNA. Some big big storms fit this evolution. Normally we just go from a pattern with not much cold to a WC ridge and cold rain it away, but this time this is not the case. View attachment 156703
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Hopefully I’m wrong but this seems like another one of those trough axis is too far east moments where suppressive NW flow air is more likely.
 
LukeBarrette said:
Hopefully I’m wrong but this seems like another one of those trough axis is too far east moments where suppressive NW flow air is more likely.
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Maybe if you’re rooting for a bomb. Otherwise it being that far east helps leave room for a southern slider. Something like the January 2011 banger.
 
LukeBarrette said:
Hopefully I’m wrong but this seems like another one of those trough axis is too far east moments where suppressive NW flow air is more likely.
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I don’t see that. This pattern doesn’t look like we are looking for northern stream digging like early Dec but rather energy being traded off from the pacific from the Aleutian/GOAK low, some memorable storms (2016) for ex fit this evolution. Pacific energy moving east into the strong cold suppressive height field. What sets this look apart is the strong split flow and the pacific open for business this go around, allowing pacific based energy to slide through the west coast ridge and dig/traverse east, then not get shredded apart due to the -NAOIMG_2545.gif
 
IMHO this is the type of pattern where you play your cards right and you could have more then 1 threat given the -NAO block trapping the TPV in Canada, and the GOAK trough consistently feeding energy. I’d say the only thing that could go wrong is we get another bout of overextension
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I don’t see that. This pattern doesn’t look like we are looking for northern stream digging like early Dec but rather energy being traded off from the pacific from the Aleutian/GOAK low, some memorable storms (2016) for ex fit this evolution. Pacific energy moving east into the strong cold suppressive height field. What sets this look apart is the strong split flow and the pacific open for business this go around, allowing pacific based energy to slide through the west coast ridge and dig/traverse east, then not get shredded apart due to the -NAOView attachment 156704
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Fair assessment here. However this all rides on getting the energy to not be weak as it attempts to ride down the western ridge.
 
LukeBarrette said:
Fair assessment here. However this all rides on getting the energy to not be weak as it attempts to ride down the western ridge.
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EC AI does show the issue you mention here. Funny because it’s still a NC-north snow event, but wave placement is mid. Looking at this pattern you can already tell the biggest issue might be the energy for a storm itself IMG_2547.pngIMG_2550.pngIMG_2549.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I don’t see that. This pattern doesn’t look like we are looking for northern stream digging like early Dec but rather energy being traded off from the pacific from the Aleutian/GOAK low, some memorable storms (2016) for ex fit this evolution. Pacific energy moving east into the strong cold suppressive height field. What sets this look apart is the strong split flow and the pacific open for business this go around, allowing pacific based energy to slide through the west coast ridge and dig/traverse east, then not get shredded apart due to the -NAOView attachment 156704
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Is that what the 5h vort loop is showing? It looks like most of the energy is coming from the northern stream over the top and turning into clippers. At the tail end it looks like the energy starts coming out of the south west but just the tail end of the loop.

Just trying to learn here, as I also feared a bit that the trough is a tad east for us to get a sw flow out of the gulf.
 
SnowNiner said:
Is that what the 5h vort loop is showing? It looks like most of the energy is coming from the northern stream over the top and turning into clippers. At the tail end it looks like the energy starts coming out of the south west but just the tail end of the loop.

Just trying to learn here, as I also feared a bit that the trough is a tad east for us to get a sw flow out of the gulf.
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Fro is correct, this is like Mod El Nino, split-flow with some high latitude ridging. Storm waves are breaking cyclonically off the Aleutian Low / N Pac low and running west to east into the West Coast and thru the PNA ridge at times, at various latitudes - the farther south the better. But with the Aleutian low / W Coast ridging setup, there may be opportunity for northern stream & southern stream phasing at times.

Think the biggest thing that can help us here is for the NAO to go to town like it did here on the GFS run. That would help to slow the flow down and move the cold air and storm track a bit farther south. Without that, it will be more challenging

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griteater said:
Fro is correct, this is like Mod El Nino, split-flow with some high latitude ridging. Storm waves are breaking cyclonically off the Aleutian Low / N Pac low and running west to east into the West Coast and thru the PNA ridge at times, at various latitudes - the farther the south the better. But with the Aleutian low / W Coast ridging setup, there may be opportunity for northern stream & southern stream phasing at times.

Think the biggest thing that can help us here is for the NAO to go to town like it did here on the GFS run. That would help to slow the flow down and move the cold air and storm track a bit farther south. Without that, it will be more challenging

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I am just going from memory here so I very well may be wrong. I seem to be remembering that a while back Allan did a composite of the biggest RDU snowstorms and there was a big upper level low anomaly over or near Tennessee like your map is showing. Is that right or do I have it all jumbled up?
 
Rain Cold said:
I am just going from memory here so I very well may be wrong. I seem to be remembering that a while back Allan did a composite of the biggest RDU snowstorms and there was a big upper level low anomaly over or near Tennessee like your map is showing. Is that right or do I have it all jumbled up?
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Yep probably a low anomaly in TN into Bama with 50/50 low anomaly as well. The GFS run phases into that huge backside low anomaly / larger than a normal setup
 
Theres a timeframe the GEFS is starting to bite on as well at D9-10. Its been slowing things down and amplifying the last few runs IMG_2551.gifIMG_2552.gifIMG_2553.gif
This is the whole run mean. Just goes to show how active things are getting. We got a couple decent means during the early Dec pattern, but nothing great and consistent, like what we are seeing now IMG_2554.png
 
Pattern (Staying Cold) kicks off starting late NYD into Jan2. Crossing under the 7 day mark till go time. We will be chasing a storm on the models by late this weekend into early next week at the latest imo. Love the consistent loud barking on the eps with 50% + members honking. Thats as big a signal as you can ask for at this lead
 
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