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Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC

NCSNOW said:
Pattern (Staying Cold) kicks off starting late NYD into Jan2. Crossing under the 7 day mark till go time. We will be chasing a storm on the models by late this weekend into early next week at the latest imo. Love the consistent loud barking on the eps with 50% + members honking. Thats as big a signal as you can ask for at this lead
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Hey can you post what the eps is showing?
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Dawg, this is so good. That precipatation footprint is beautiful as well. Can’t ask for much better honestly View attachment 156727View attachment 156726View attachment 156725View attachment 156724
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Yeah Fro, this GEFS run was really good and on par with that 12z EPS run yesterday. Since that point, the EPS has extended the Pac Jet more (as you know) and moved the troughs and ridges to the east...not as good IMO, but that also depends on how individual setups shake out in the end. But I'd like to see EPS pull back on the jet extension. GEFS now has it in the money spot out to Maui

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KyloG said:
Who you putting money on? I know who I got...

Will revist in a week and see who won.

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I’m already revising this and can’t say I’m shocked because I knew this would likely happen with the background +AAMa, + Mtn torque, & sudden uptick in +U in the deep tropics, but the GEFS is getting its butt kicked (again).

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Webberweather53 said:
I’m already revising this and can’t say I’m shocked because I knew this would likely happen with the background +AAMa, + Mtn torque, & sudden uptick in +U in the deep tropics, but the GEFS is getting its butt kicked (again).

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Starting to worry if overextension could be a problem again. The AIFS went crazy from a big +EAMT which full sent the pac jet
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Starting to worry if overextension could be a problem again. The AIFS went crazy from a big +EAMT which full sent the pac jet
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I usually don’t pay a ton of attention to deterministic models that far out but the overall pattern on the AIFS makes some sense with another positive torque coming down the pipe in addition to (& probably more importantly) the big +U surge in the tropics from other previous + torque events fluxing momentum equatorward and the MJO passage in the pacific

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One more pacific jet extension next week, then the well advertised large-scale retreat/pattern retrogression begins.

The best opportunity for cold/snow here will probably be during this transition period between next week's Pac jet extension & the subsequent retraction late in week 2 into week 3.

A forthcoming Eastern Hemisphere MJO orbit, phase 1-2 of the global wind oscillation (GWO) (decreasing AAMa) & negative frictional torque anomalies (which precede negative mountain torque) all point to Pacific Jet retraction/pattern retrogression occurring in earnest 3-4 weeks from now.


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LukeBarrette said:
Exact thing we were talking about with trough axis too far east. 00z OP Euro shows the exact progression that would suck.
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it would be funny/traumatizing if this long range look, which is solid enough to warrant NWS RAL chiming in, makes storms pull the same move: this thing

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hope you're hungry for more clippers and crazy energy bills
 
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