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Tropical Major Hurricane Milton

I'm not sure if it will make a difference, but 12z GFS has a noon Monday starting position of 982. This run may be trash....
But here it is anyway....North of Tampa for the 8th time I think.

gfs_mslp_wind_seus_12.png
 
i was going to post something a few hours ago like lol this might be sub 920 by lunch but deleted it because it was too hyperbolic. little did i know....

the recon plane just took on a 2k foot drop. one of those passes the crew will have stories about


1728316165295.png

this entire thing feels like a fever dream. this is the manifestation of one of those cheap "bad storm" documentaries the weather channel produced in the late 2000s as an innings killer when there was nothing interesting going on

i felt pretty sure this would weaken enough pre landfall to avoid the upper echelon emergency solutions but now i'm no so sure about that
 
...MILTON RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Milton has strengthened to a category 5 hurricane. The
maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 160 mph (250 km/h) with
higher gusts. Data from the aircraft also indicate that the
minimum pressure has fallen to 925 mb (27.31 inch
es).
 
Henry2326 said:
I'm not sure if it will make a difference, but 12z GFS has a noon Monday starting position of 982. This run may be trash....
Click to expand...
it does make a difference and every hurricane model we use (hwrf, hmon, hafs(s)) uses the gfs as the parent environment. if the gfs is this off the mark at initialization then this model suite may be cooked as the kids say
 
Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1055 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...MILTON RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Milton has strengthened to a category 5 hurricane. The
maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 160 mph (250 km/h) with
higher gusts. Data from the aircraft also indicate that the
minimum pressure has fallen to 925 mb (27.31 inches).


SUMMARY OF 1055 AM CDT...1555 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 91.6W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM W OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 735 MI...1175 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.31 INCHES
 
ILMRoss said:
it does make a difference and every hurricane model we use (hwrf, hmon, hafs(s)) uses the gfs as the parent environment. if the gfs is this off the mark at initialization then this model suite may be cooked as the kids say
Click to expand...
Heck, all the 12z models may be cooked.....flying blind.....but adding my public service announcement.
If you live on the west coast from cedar key to south of Tampa, do yourself a favor and evacuate !!!! Watch this one from as far away as you can get!!
 
ILMRoss said:
i was going to post something a few hours ago like lol this might be sub 920 by lunch but deleted it because it was too hyperbolic. little did i know....

the recon plane just took on a 2k foot drop. one of those passes the crew will have stories about




this entire thing feels like a fever dream. this is the manifestation of one of those cheap "bad storm" documentaries the weather channel produced in the late 2000s as an innings killer when there was nothing interesting going on

i felt pretty sure this would weaken enough pre landfall to avoid the upper echelon emergency solutions but now i'm no so sure about that
Click to expand...

Balls of steel, the lot of them. I couldnt in my wildest dreams.
 
Oh my god. This is the stuff nightmares are made of for Tampa

aJpWvUY.png
 
I'm thinking of ships at sea closest to Milton. Is there a place online people go to check their weather instruments reporting?
 
Anyone know what the SLOSH model prediction is for the Tampa area? If they even use this model still.
 
I'm still of the opinion that a landfall north of Tampa is ultimately where Milton land falls. The GFS is probably too weak with Milton and an intense CAT 4-5 hurricane would be steered primarily by the upper-level flow. The model has been insistent on this sharp ULL trough for many runs now.
1728317905723.png
 
That 160mph looks really conservative. I think we have a 170mph-180mph hurricane currently. I kept my lips tight with everyone expecting this thing to lose steam and weaken as it approaches land. These things have routinely been stronger than anticipated and for longer the last 10 years. Even Helene was well on her way to a strong Cat 5 all the way to landfall if not for her forward speed increasing as fast as it did. And while it may weaken still as it approaches land, the starting point of that has quickly gone from a peak of around 930-940mb and a Category 4 to likely around a sub 910mb and over 180mph Cat 5. This thing has a real shot to make landfall as a Cat 5 even with some weakening. Note though with this thing being as strong it's going to be able to fight off shear (personally based on the track I think it was going to be minimum anyway) and dry air for a lot longer.
 
iGRXY said:
That 160mph looks really conservative. I think we have a 170mph-180mph hurricane currently. I kept my lips tight with everyone expecting this thing to lose steam and weaken as it approaches land. These things have routinely been stronger than anticipated and for longer the last 10 years. Even Helene was well on her way to a strong Cat 5 all the way to landfall if not for her forward speed increasing as fast as it did. And while it may weaken still as it approaches land, the starting point of that has quickly gone from a peak of around 930-940mb and a Category 4 to likely around a sub 910mb and over 180mph Cat 5. This thing has a real shot to make landfall as a Cat 5 even with some weakening. Note though with this thing being as strong it's going to be able to fight off shear (personally based on the track I think it was going to be minimum anyway) and dry air for a lot longer.
Click to expand...

I really doubt anywhere close to Cat 5 at landfall but I’ve been surprised before.

These storms with pinhole eyes tend to come unraveled in spectacular fashion when they eventually do have a ERC. Very well could take a day or so just to re-organize.
 
Seems like this could be setting up as a “worst case” scenario for Tampa Bay. Of course, we’ve thought that was going to happen before (i.e. Charlie 2004) and it’s avoided a direct hit and mostly spared them the worst destruction, but things aren’t looking good as of now.
 
superjames1992 said:
Seems like this could be setting up as a “worst case” scenario for Tampa Bay. Of course, we’ve thought that was going to happen before (i.e. Charlie 2004) and it’s avoided a direct hit and mostly spared them the worst destruction, but things aren’t looking good as of now.
Click to expand...
charley went well south of Tampa correct ?
 
Henry2326 said:
I think they moved it a smig north. My opinion, they will keep doing that. It will come in just north of Tampa, but the damage to Tampa will be devastating without a headon.
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Isn’t it hitting ever so slightly north of Tampa the worst case scenario because they’d get the worst of the winds coming in from the south and west and pushing water into the bay?
 
Well I just got off the phone with one of my best friends who has lived near Tampa the last 12 years. Him and his family have never evacuated, but after seeing the surge first hand from Helene told me a few days ago, they’re leaving the next time. When he answered the phone this morning, I told him that the next time is and to please get stuff ready and be gone by tomorrow afternoon. He told me he was already putting up his storm shutters and is pulling out first thing in the morning
 
SD said:
Peak atlantic hurricane right hereView attachment 152794
Click to expand...
The CDO is much more symmetrical now and really only needs slight improvement in the SSE quadrant. Excellent outflow across the board. It wouldn't surprise me for it to make it to 180 before weakening. Motion still looks ever so slightly south of due east.
 
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