• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Jarring January

Fwiw since so far out: the 12Z EPS says don't sleep on the period around 1/3-4 for a possible THIRD SE wintry threat, including near the coast due to still another surface low that is modeled to track well offshore the SE coast along with a possible wedge preceding that and continued ample supply of cold. I've thought about a generator in the past for hurricane threats but I never thought I may need a generator for wintry weather way down here. Having the possibility of not just one, not just two, but possibly even THREE distinct threats on an EPS run makes me really believe that this area has a legit shot at getting its most significant wintry event by far since 12/1989 and the most significant for me to witness here since at least 1/1977 (I wasn't here in 12/1989). I know they could all end up as nothing and I've seen some individual threats for here in the past that fizzled, but I've never seen anything even close to this (3 different threats that could have significant impact close to the coast) on models. Possibly three different opportunities to score?!?! Someone pinch me.
 
Last edited:
Not bad
ec3b9e40ec401f7da21b8751b8d7c63b.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
this thing has decent phasing potential if this look can remain. everything is moving so fast though I find it hard to believe we don't see massive changes moving forward for good or bad.
 
I'd be worried about this getting too amped over being crushed. The southern s/w is not changing much run to run so it must be sampled pretty well, however the northern stream is. For instance the center of the northern trough is over Ohio on the 12z, on the 18z it is over western MI.

Remember the biases, the models love to over strengthen the northern trough every time.
 
Storm5 said:
Still too late with the SW needs to be quicker everything just shunted to the south
223b4795067406791a68ee108f59932f.jpg
3077428c6fcde28e3f597102d35dc928.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
That's a winning look right there! All day everyday!
 
I love it when the Kuchera ratios gives you more snow than 10:1. We rarely get that kind of dry powder in the south.
 
Arcc said:
I'd be worried about this getting too amped over being crushed. The southern s/w is not changing much run to run so it must be sampled pretty well, however the northern stream is. For instance the center of the northern trough is over Ohio on the 12z, on the 18z it is over western mi

Remember the biases, the models love to over strengthen the northern trough every time.
Click to expand...
I agree with this 100 percent . We’ve seen the northern stream bias on the gfs for years . Problem then becomes if it’s too amped you have 100 other things to worry about most notable would be an inland runner and if that’s the case we are dead in arrival
 
Hope every one has had a Merry Christmas. Been a few years, but man did it feel like Christmas today. Already sitting at freezing at sunset. Been in the mid 30s most of the day with a pretty good cloud deck.
Lol at all the pessimism about torchmas etc. We where all doomed this time last week if yall remember the discussions. Anyway winter is off to a fantastic start. BN Nov,now Dec will end up BN up this way. 2 months in a row lol. Also most of us have seen snow and accumulating snow, with several more prospects of frozen on the horizon. So enjoy whatever we get dealt. It sure beats the pants off the past several years,definitely Decembers.
 
Round 4 on the GFS looks to be a little too warm. This cold pattern can only last so long.
prateptype_cat.conus.png
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top