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Pattern Jarring January

DadOfJax said:
Big snows don't happen in AL with temps that are that cold. Air would be so dry that it might snow a foot but we never see a flake. Need to see moisture with temps in the upper 20's.
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North Al has seen several good snows with temps below 25.. Jan '11, March '93...others
 
Stormlover said:
the temp shown is after the snow, very logical
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My bad...looked at timing wrong. Either way, EXTREMELY unlikely to see those temps.

Webberweather53 said:
Even if there's a decent snow cover after the next few storms over the coming week or so the GFS verbatim would still be too cold again due to its surface parameterization issues
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Truer words have never been spoken.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Even if there's a decent snow cover after the next few storms over the coming week or so the GFS verbatim would still be too cold again due to its surface parameterization issues
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Does CMC have these issues? It had a pretty cold run today
 
DadOfJax said:
LOL....You named the 2 systems that most people will see once in a lifetime around here...
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Not at all unusual for temps to plummet after a snow though, that's what we are talking about, you are doubting the temps after the snow with clear skies and light winds..they will hit rock bottom
 
Tarheel1 said:
Does CMC have these issues? It had a pretty cold run today
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I notice a similar bias in the CMC which is often worse however I've yet to discover what the source(s) if its bias are. Even the employment of the bias corected version of the GFS failed to fix many of the issues that still apparently will haunt the model even after its MO surface paramterization is modified
 
No go on the Euro for New Years Eve/Day storm. Nothing, nada.
 
Im not worried to much right now with Euro, CMC GFS has it. Lets hope Euro will show eventually.
 
naw:
ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_9.png
 
The 0Z EPS mean has hardly anything for anytime around New Year's. Of course, with its W to WNW H5 flow, it makes sense for it to be dry. WSW flow would be much wetter. The good news is that it looks a touch colder 12/31-1/1. So, cold dry fans should be happy. I don't mind cold and dry, especially vs warm.

Regardless, I'm taking anything past 3 days, good or bad, with a huge grain due to recent horrible model performance. So, I won't even talk about anything after New Year's as even talking about that is giving too much credibility to models.
 
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Well, the GFS looks awesome. But with what is happening now with the 28th and 29th storm, it's hard to trust it. Especially with Euro being more suppressed, which is what all the other models are turning out now with the 28th and 29th storm.
 
The 6z GFS didn't look good at all outside of the upper south but considering how we've seen things roll lately, what do you want to bet that in a few days this one becomes NS dominant too, unlike the good ole thing we used to see (major NW trends).
 
still Big Cold on 6z though... that's starting to look legit at least.
 
After the runs over the last 24 hours I’m feeling less confident about next week but we shall see


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Merry Christmas all!!! Cold over performing up here. was supposed to be 31 for the low and is 24 now. It is disappointing to see 240 hours of cold 850s and nada for precip. Hoping something will turn around a bit.
 
Storm5 said:
After the runs over the last 24 hours I’m feeling less confident about next week but we shall see


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I am not too worried. 12 hours ago 18z gfs was showing a big storm. No worries!!
 
WPC update:

HE SPECIFICS AND LONGER TERM RAMIFICATIONS/TRANSITIONS WITHIN THIS WINTRY PATTERN INCLUDING ICE/SNOW THREATS REMAIN A QUESTION MARK. THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK AND WEATHER GRIDS SHOW A FOCUS FOR HEAVIER SNOW PROBABILITIES THROUGH MID-LATER WEEK OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES AND TO THE LEE OF THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH AN EMERGING WIDESPREAD THREAT THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR FRIGID HIGH PRESSURE AND POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN OVER AR, GA, AND THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH SNOW FARTHER INTO THE COLD AIR FROM THE MID-SOUTH AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE PASSAGES AND ANY POSSIBLE TROWAL/NORLUN TROUGH-LIKE FEATURES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST.
 
tractor girl said:
The other part showing an update:

UPDATE...THE 00 UTC ECMWF HAS TRENDED MORE IN LINE WITH RECENT GFS RUNS WITH THE ERN PACIFIC FEATURE MOVING INTO BC AND THE PAC NW AND DOWNSTREAM ALSO TRENDS TOWARD A MORE SUPPRESSED LOW/QPF/WINTER WEATHER THREAT AS WELL. THE EARLIER RELEASED WPC MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCT SUITE WAS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A COMPOSITE BLEND OF THE GEFS/NAEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH CONTINUITY. THAT SOLUTION
OFFERED LESS AMPLITUDE/MORE PROGRESSION THAN THE 12 UTC ECMWF...BUT MAY HAVE TO REVISITED IF THE UPCOMING MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE THE TRENDS OF THE 00 UTC ECMWF. THE UPCOMING
QPF AND WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROGS WILL SHOW THIS TREND.
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This is for the first storm. I put that part in the other thread.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
The 6z GFS didn't look good at all outside of the upper south but considering how we've seen things roll lately, what do you want to bet that in a few days this one becomes NS dominant too, unlike the good ole thing we used to see (major NW trends).
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Y'all. What did I say this morning?

May have called it much quicker than what I even thought!
 
There will be a system due to the SW energy coming out but let’s hope it does not get crushed


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SW is coming out too late it’s about to get crushed by the northern stream
427879adbe81989a267740458b5b5ee2.jpg



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