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Pattern Jarring January

GeorgiaGirl said:
I haven't seen that but I have seen off of a storm, light snow just develop and sit over me. No accum but it was some good snow TV.
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I have encountered Lake Moultrie effect snow here locally once back in around 2000. It put a quick dusting to an inch in a small area in Goose Creek in about a 30 minute window. Very localized.
 
I highly doubt that the ridiculous cold being advertised on the GFS actually verifies, but the potential is certainly there for us to at least have another arctic outbreak similar to the one in January 2014. The law of averages says that we are over for such an event and it's somewhat common historically in La Nina winters to have these pipe bursting cold outbreaks.
 
Charlie, wasn't you gonna start the thread after oz tonight? I guess your waiting to see what the Doc says.
 
Yep. -12 here and snow in the middle of GOM. :D

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Euro is much warmer here next weekend than the GFS

Almost 30 degrees warmer for the high next Monday. Not even colder than this week.
 
wish tropical tidbits showed Euro precip... it's colder though, with a low off the coast:
ecmwf_T850_us_6.png
 
Definitely very interesting on the Euro. Some wintery stuff falling, a mix maybe across central AL at 168hrs. Temps very borderline.
 
Something to watch, but not really much verbatim on the Euro. Like I said, temps will be a big problem on that run for the spittle that does fall.
 
Euro is so much warmer its not even that cold

We barely even hit freezing on this run while the GFS had 3 days we fail to make freezing

:rolleyes:
 
HSV is buying the cold:
As most models push a strong cold front through the region Monday
morning, our first true arctic air pushes into the Tennessee
Valley. Highs in the lower 30s look like a good possibility (this
may be generous) with lows it the teens for sure Monday through
Tuesday night. If we do see the afore-mentioned snowfall over the
weekend or Monday, temperatures might only make it into the teens or
lower 20s on Monday (with lows in the single digits) due to snowpack
effects and lingering cloud cover.
 
Stormlover said:
HSV is buying the cold:
As most models push a strong cold front through the region Monday
morning, our first true arctic air pushes into the Tennessee
Valley. Highs in the lower 30s look like a good possibility (this
may be generous) with lows it the teens for sure Monday through
Tuesday night. If we do see the afore-mentioned snowfall over the
weekend or Monday, temperatures might only make it into the teens or
lower 20s on Monday (with lows in the single digits) due to snowpack
effects and lingering cloud cover.
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That’s taking the middles ground . Nothing supports the gfs cold . We’ve seen all winter have it overplays the cold . Here is the eps . While still cold no doubt it’s nowhere near the gfs op cold
efb8629a8967c3c86aa73f7e4bcf219f.jpg
 
The GFS is WAY too cold IMO and will verify 10-15 degrees warmer. We see this time and again every winter, the temps modify greatly after showing cold 3-5 days before, much the same as it tends to underestimate the cold in a CAD even, the Goofy misses the temps during a cold snap only in the other direction.
 
Latest gfs and cmc both continue to show a light event here in the mid south and both show bitter cold temps on the way.
 
Storm5 said:
Oh don’t get me wrong it’s gonna be cold regardless . I for one would like to see the gfs op verify to be honest . I love brutal cold
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If there isn't a storm in sight, then bring it on, or if there is one right before. I'll take 17 as a high! That would skew the month to normal when the 100s start in late January! LOL
 
I’m wondering if this New Years Eve/Day system will trend stronger as we move closer to go time.
 
NWMSGuy said:
I’m wondering if this New Years Eve/Day system will trend stronger as we move closer to go time.
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If so, it'll trend warmer! Already borderline for most outside the mountains
 
From the Nashville NWS: Good morning, everyone. Twas the the morning after Christmas, and my gosh, it's cold. Sorry about the temperature, Facebook friends. (Actually, we're not sorry. It's winter.) Not only is today a cold one, but the forecast is cold for as far as the eye can see. In fact, peering into the future as far as the models will allow, there is no relief from the cold. No. Relief. At. All. This morning, a 1040+ millibar high pressure monster is centered over the Dakotas. This is a particularly diabolical tool the atmosphere uses to reinforce cold air over Middle Tennessee. We don't like seeing the 1040+ millibar high to our northwest. But it's there, and it will only get closer. By this time tomorrow it will be centered over the cornbelt, then into the Great Lakes by Thursday, all the while pushing cold air into Middle Tennessee without relent, laughing at us, mocking us, freezing us. (It's like we're all Han Solo when he gets flash-frozen at the end of "The Empire Strikes Back.") It's the kind of forecast that even the most optimistic forecaster cannot sugarcoat. There is no, "Well, it's cold now but it will feel like spring by the weekend." There's none of that. It's just cold. Forever always cold.
 
We will not get a storm if that cold. Cold and dry. If that cold it will be like this week and dry it up. Rather have euro next week with marginal temps showing than what gfs is showing
 
Just like the 28th and 29th threat, seems like we have no idea what's really going to happen.
 
POWERSTROKE said:
We will not get a storm if that cold. Cold and dry. If that cold it will be like this week and dry it up. Rather have euro next week with marginal temps showing than what gfs is showing
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We can easily get a system like what’s been shown out in front of the big arctic blast
 
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