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Pattern Jarring January

Storm5 said:
SW is coming out too late it’s about to get crushed by the northern stream
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It might be what we want in this stage of everything. 7 days out.
 
Just a 1050 high in plains and moisture pooling in TX! Could be good
 
Yep crushed . Way too slow kicking out . It has to be timed just right or the powerful Northern stream will crush . The 24 hour trends are not on our side . Thank god its 7 days out


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Storm5 said:
Yep crushed . Way too slow kicking out . It has to be timed just right or the powerful Northern stream will crush . The 24 hour trends are not on our side . Thank god its 7 days out


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What did the 6z gefs have for this storm?
 
00z vs 12z . Look what happens when the SW kicks out and gets out in front of the northern stream - amplification. If it’s too slow and the northern stream gets out front it’s crush city and you get an ugly run like 12z .

00z

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Vs 12z

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Storm5 said:
Yep crushed . Way too slow kicking out . It has to be timed just right or the powerful Northern stream will crush . The 24 hour trends are not on our side . Thank god its 7 days out


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Looks like the 00z Euro. Better get ready to toss the towel in on this one too...LOL!


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That supressed look on the NYE storm , really looks good this far out! Would really be happier with a miss to the south, than to have a cold rain! Atleast it will be cold for awhile! Before spring gets here mid Jan
 
ForsythSnow said:
That high as mentioned is likely bogus. I bet things won't be as flattened when it comes down to reality.
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Yep but need the Euro to be on board before we get to excited. The Euro does have this system suppressed and at this pt. that’s where you want it.


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Storm5 said:
00z vs 12z . Look what happens when the SW kicks out and gets out in front of the northern stream - amplification. If it’s too slow and the northern stream gets out front it’s crush city and you get an ugly run like 12z .

00z

15aca8e5da5c3c7258223058f8cd28fd.jpg
66a606d690e19b45bb586ff4d27e7631.jpg


Vs 12z

415c60f79738bb6947b7ebf16b08b785.jpg
5c44a5c1536ead10ca43dc0e05841002.jpg



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Big difference in the Ridge location in the west as well as the s/w diving in over the upper midwest. Need to let that ridge be more west or it will shear the southern s/w against the northern stream.
 
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I love how everyone is saying in definitive terms “there won’t be a New Years storm”.

It’s 6+ days away. Let the model runs pan out. They’ve been so inconsistent, no reason to believe (or truly disbelieve) their outputs. We can only take what they show us so far. Once it gets closer, we can start talking in more definitive terms.
 
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Nam0806 said:
I love how everyone is saying in definitive terms “there won’t be a New Years storm”.

It’s 6+ days away. Let the model runs pan out. They’ve been so inconsistent, no reason to believe (or truly disbelieve) their outputs. We can only take what they show us so far. Once it gets closer, we can start taking in more definitive terms.
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For real. Throw in the towel? That's hilarious. It won't get things nailed down to 2 or 3 days out.
 
Stormlover said:
For real. Throw in the towel? That's hilarious. It won't get things nailed down to 2 or 3 days out.
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Exactly. I wasn't expecting 9 inches at all and I only saw higher amounts a day or two out. In addition, the models are all over the place, but the energy is there and there is a sign of moisture. I'll give up a day or two out if it dries out.
 
Did the GEFS look a lot worse? I didn’t know if anybody had seen or could post it by chance.
 
Storm5 said:
18z
06z
12z gefs runs . Headed the wrong way

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Yuck! Definetley the wrong way!

If we aren’t gonna get snow, then those bitter cold temps can take a hike!
 
Storm5 said:
18z
06z
12z gefs runs . Headed the wrong way

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I see you were putting your hopes in the GFS/GEFS on this one...How is that working out for you. Let’s get the Euro on our side and then go all in...LOL!


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I don't think we're going to like the ending with New Years. It's likely to either be too amped or be no storm due to NS interaction.
 
I'm taking it with a humongous grain but fwiw the 12Z Euro has a significant wintry event on 1/1 for the SAV-CHS corridor believe it or not. But that's what can happen when there is a surface low that tracks 200-250 miles SE of that area, which actually is similar to what is being modeled for 12/29!

This run has 0.25" qpf SAV-CHS that falls as mainly SN at CHS (2" on my clown map) and mix of SN, IP, and ZR at SAV with 0.5" on clown map. Surface temps on the normally warm biased Euro are 32 or colder.

So, the model consensus has not one but an unreal TWO significant wintry threats within 4 days of each other for SAV-CHS! SAV hasn't had even one wintry event of this caliber since 12/1989 (basically since before I started posting on Prodigy back in 1992 and started following models in the 1990s.) So, if I were to sound a little excited about the potential, don't mind me.
 
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GaWx said:
I'm taking it with a humongous grain but fwiw the 12Z Euro has a significant wintry event on 1/1 for the SAV-CHS corridor believe it or not. But that's what can happen when there is a surface low that tracks 200-250 miles SE of that area, which actually is similar to what is being modeled for 12/29!
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This storm may have legs but still a ways out...


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