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Pattern February 2024

I’ve got no scientific or model data to back this up other than history around here the last 5-6 years. Those of us east of the apps I wouldn’t bank on the warm spring yet either. Every year we get the same torch pattern looks that turn into 40/50 degree CAD days with some mixed spring like days in there. Never fails. Things you can count on around here. December being warm at least the first 21 days. A 2 or maybe 3 week winter period in early January where we hope but nothing ever materializes and we get cold and dry or just warm enough rain before the inevitable flip by mid January through February of torch with CAD days mixed in there. Before winter finally shows up March and April but by then it’s too warm to actually get snow and turn severe weather season into 50 and rain for 2 straight months. Again, I can’t quote a model on it yet but it’s like clock work and I’ll bet $100 by the time we get to March you’ll be seeing CAD and rain show up left and right as we get into the short and medium range. It’s the only thing we’re good at around here anymore
 
iGRXY said:
I’ve got no scientific or model data to back this up other than history around here the last 5-6 years. Those of us east of the apps I wouldn’t bank on the warm spring yet either. Every year we get the same torch pattern looks that turn into 40/50 degree CAD days with some mixed spring like days in there. Never fails. Things you can count on around here. December being warm at least the first 21 days. A 2 or maybe 3 week winter period in early January where we hope but nothing ever materializes and we get cold and dry or just warm enough rain before the inevitable flip by mid January through February of torch with CAD days mixed in there. Before winter finally shows up March and April but by then it’s too warm to actually get snow and turn severe weather season into 50 and rain for 2 straight months. Again, I can’t quote a model on it yet but it’s like clock work and I’ll bet $100 by the time we get to March you’ll be seeing CAD and rain show up left and right as we get into the short and medium range. It’s the only thing we’re good at around here anymore
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It’s certainly a safe bet. It seems like cool springs have been just as normal as mild winters the last 10 years or so
 
Who the hell knows what's going to happen going forward, that's for sure. I thought a BIG mid to late Feb was all but guaranteed. We see where that is going now. I'm not throwing in the towel just yet, but we don't have much more than a month, at most to get something. I have a gut feeling that something big is going to happen when we least expect it. At least in the upper part of the SE US.
 
Tarheel1 said:
I got 50s coming back next week! Only 25-30 degrees above normal highs! So the cold source is definitely taking a hit and snowcover up here will still be non existent!
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Lmao even Denver almost hits 70 next week. I mean what a winter. I'm out of words at this point. It's just embarrassing
 
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Brent said:
Lmao even Denver almost hits 70 next week. I mean what a winter. I'm out of words at this point. It's just embarrassing
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Don’t worry. If the Gulf Stream shuts down like that one person posted we’ll be wishing for this weather as we’re burning our furniture.
 
iGRXY said:
I’ve got no scientific or model data to back this up other than history around here the last 5-6 years. Those of us east of the apps I wouldn’t bank on the warm spring yet either. Every year we get the same torch pattern looks that turn into 40/50 degree CAD days with some mixed spring like days in there. Never fails. Things you can count on around here. December being warm at least the first 21 days. A 2 or maybe 3 week winter period in early January where we hope but nothing ever materializes and we get cold and dry or just warm enough rain before the inevitable flip by mid January through February of torch with CAD days mixed in there. Before winter finally shows up March and April but by then it’s too warm to actually get snow and turn severe weather season into 50 and rain for 2 straight months. Again, I can’t quote a model on it yet but it’s like clock work and I’ll bet $100 by the time we get to March you’ll be seeing CAD and rain show up left and right as we get into the short and medium range. It’s the only thing we’re good at around here anymore
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You nailed it, outside of Spring like days in February, there is no hope for an early Spring. Teleconnections set up for the cold pattern almost like clockwork in March then the chilly to down right cold winds start blowing and do so repeatedly through the first week in May then comes summer. "Spring" has become far and away my least favorite season of the year. Nothing like pollen laden cold winds gusting over 40 mph.
 
Averages starting to rise and it’s really starting to show on ens means. Getting to that Time of the year where days getting to 60F is getting easier and easier. In 4-5 weeks that’ll be 70F instead, and 7-9 weeks 80F, and then week 12-14 we are cooking and it’s full on summer baby E04D751C-2350-46F0-8154-80A8BB3B8E3F.png1EB41957-6C53-45D9-BF74-450B53A65DE7.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Averages starting to rise and it’s really starting to show on ens means. Getting to that Time of the year where days getting to 60F is getting easier and easier. In 4-5 weeks that’ll be 70F instead, and 7-9 weeks 80F, and then week 12-14 we are cooking and it’s full on summer baby View attachment 146454View attachment 146455
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Man I love beach szn but it feels good headed into the heat wave with a new snow memory under my belt. Maybe next year man

edit: wrong thread my b
 
can someone explain to me what happened to cause such a drastic 360? this really was the most positive pattern flip I've ever seen y'all get excited about. just curious.
 
KyloG said:
Last week at this time we were looking at this to end Feb on the weeklies.....what a collapse

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I really did buy into them last week when the pattern started to get into the ensemble range. They're officially garbage to me now, like the control run. Lol.

The pacific I'm used to crapping on us. This year I'm surprised how bad and short lived the blocking, -nao has been. Background state was supposed to make the block persistent, but it's evaporated like a fart in the wind each time it shows.
 
RoddyPiper said:
The meltdown is REAL....both figuratively and literally!
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Not here. I love snow, but also nice Spring temps. Now when this all flips in the next few weeks again and we get a chilly March and April, no decent severe weather setups and late frosts and then BAM right into 90’s; I’ll do my fair share of the Meltdown.
 
Arcc said:
Not here. I love snow, but also nice Spring temps. Now when this all flips in the next few weeks again and we get a chilly March and April, no decent severe weather setups and late frosts and then BAM right into 90’s; I’ll do my fair share of the Meltdown.
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I love warmer than average March's. Its just refreshing.
 
ILMRoss said:
while everybody else is writhing and gnashing their teeth i'm having my snow super bowl this weekend. so any support would be gracious to make sure i get this and not dc
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I’m in your boat, need it to drop south some
 
ILMRoss said:
while everybody else is writhing and gnashing their teeth i'm having my snow super bowl this weekend. so any support would be gracious to make sure i get this and not dc
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I'll wish this comes your way but only because it gives me the slightest glimmer of hope of seeing a rogue flake if it does. Hah
 
Metwannabe said:
I'll wish this comes your way but only because it gives me the slightest glimmer of hope of seeing a rogue flake if it does. Hah
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i take pains to be a well behaved northern latitude guy. i remember growing up in wilmington and reading these forums and knowing the only way i was scoring is if everyone was like "gah too suppressed". distinctly remember shutting my laptop once bc big frosty was ecstatic at a run and thats when i knew i was toast
 
ILMRoss said:
i take pains to be a well behaved northern latitude guy. i remember growing up in wilmington and reading these forums and knowing the only way i was scoring is if everyone was like "gah too suppressed". distinctly remember shutting my laptop once bc big frosty was ecstatic at a run and thats when i knew i was toast
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It will snow again in Wilmington. does the euro look good for richmond?
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
March looks really warm to start out, deep -PNA/EC ridge and the sfc pattern already features a subtropical high around Bermuda and conus is flooded with LP. Really one of the warmer looks you can get View attachment 146473View attachment 146474View attachment 146475View attachment 146476
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It looks warm today, 2 weeks out. I just can't put my faith into these things anymore whether it shows cold or warm. We should be sitting in the freezer right now if these models were correct 2 weeks ago. It maybe warm but I'm not putting any stock into what they show or hell any teleconnection shows past 5 days at this point. They're just not reliable anymore for whatever reason.
 
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