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Misc Winter Weather Support Group

NCSNOW said:
Cant wait for the el nino rains to fade and pre La nina summer coming up. Makes my lips chapped and dry just thinking about all the future drought post inbound. But I do enjoy his post
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Don’t forget the annual post that he makes that it looks like this is the summer that the southeast has widespread 110-120 degree heat.
 
To be fair the model that shows the worst possible thing for us is usually right. Why would the models all show the great pattern and the suddenly one decides to go rogue? If the gfs is really that bad it should be trashed.
 
SD said:
There's a sick part of me that wants the pattern to dump down the WC and fire a nice 591 ridge across the SE
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I have to go up to Penn State in two weeks. As much as I want snow, I want the east coast to be snowless so my plans don't get canceled.
 
Stevo24 said:
To be fair the model that shows the worst possible thing for us is usually right. Why would the models all show the great pattern and the suddenly one decides to go rogue? If the gfs is really that bad it should be trashed.
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Ok…this is how bad and poor of a model the GFS is… within 72 hours of the 1/17/22 storm, the GFS did the miller B transfer to a new low pressure not on the coast, not on the wedge boundary, but literally inside the CAD. This is a model that often gives solutions that defy physics. Again, you can’t say that a model is right about a timeframe when it will give completely different solutions every 6 hours
 
Part of me is thinking some of these government run models are trying to implement a lot of climo, especially experimental climo and causing some of the warm heat swings as we head towards the end of February.

I am still all in for a plethora of chances coming up.
 
Shawn said:
Part of me is thinking some of these government run models are trying to implement a lot of climo, especially experimental climo and causing some of the warm heat swings as we head towards the end of February.

I am still all in for a plethora of chances coming up.
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I think the GFS is picking up on a lack of cross polar flow. This is the one essential ingredient without which there’s not much of anything wintry outside of -NAO driven cold in the NE.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
The 18z phased a few pieces of energy SW of the big PV lobe in Canada. Then reached for and started holding hands with the big low over the Pacific. It is close to Valentine’s Day after all. The holding hands ended in an embrace and then well so on and the result was the birth of a crap pattern.

We need that hand to get slapped, before getting a “feely”.
 
I heard something about pickles and weatherbug! It’s my favorite app! ?5594BA1B-1E03-46D2-A4C5-B5B9017D15BE.png
 
Many ways to make temps work....

2015...PV pressing down hard coupled wth a stout +PNA/-EPO like 2015

compday.sFFWRNT0gG.gif


Or we need some NS help...ala Feb 2004. 2 days before the event, temps were seasonal and then bam...lemonade



Feb2004.gif
 
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