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Pattern February 2024

We really need the pinched off vortex to our Northeast to shift a little farther east and allow for a more deal CAD high location plus give a little more room for the pacific jet wave to move in. It's a fine line though b/c the cold air already looks to be marginal and shifting too far east eats in to that.

It's all semantic right now though b/c we have no idea if these players will even be in the same ball park going forward.
 
Mitch West said:
Look at the CAD working in.
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Ya got to like the cold pressing down to the central SE states too. Implies staying power for any CAD event rather than an on-set in-situ novelty-type event.

I have weather porn images in my mind of an ice storm changing to snow in my area with that look.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Ya got to like the cold pressing down to the central SE states too. Implies staying power for any CAD event rather than an on-set in-situ novelty-type event.

I have weather porn images in my mind of an ice storm changing to snow in my area with that look.
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Haha seems like it's always the other way around here. You get a nice front end thumping of snow that turns into a ice storm. 2011 was the perfect example of that in Central SC.
 
All of the above images look pretty good and interesting at 500 mb. At the surface, however, temperatures seem very marginal. Slightly below average, but there doesn't seem to be much in the way of a true cold air feed. Clouds and precipitation would obviously keep temps down and the lower heights across the south are good to see. I'm just not sure that the things going on up in the Arctic regions are helping us very much. The big block is interesting, but it doesn't seem to be a help for cold air transport. So, it doesn't look very wintry to me. But I may be missing something.

ecmwf_T2m_namer_65.png
 
Rain Cold said:
All of the above images look pretty good and interesting at 500 mb. At the surface, however, temperatures seem very marginal. Slightly below average, but there doesn't seem to be much in the way of a true cold air feed. Clouds and precipitation would obviously keep temps down and the lower heights across the south is good to see. I'm just not sure that the things going on up in the Arctic regions are helping us very much. The big block is interesting, but it doesn't seem to be a help for cold air transport. So, it doesn't look very wintry to me. But I may be missing something.

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Keep the 500 look and the surface will catch-up
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
Keep the 500 look and the surface will catch-up
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What I'm hoping is that the 500 look evolves. The current model depiction (and we all know that things will change) doesn't seem all that favorable to me for areas outside of elevation.
 
This never really looked like a storm that has a ton of arctic air around, those GFS runs the last couple days ago didn’t have really cold snowstorms at all, this is closer to your Nino big dog look, which is normally marginal, (but of course, we would prefer to have arctic air around)
 
Rain Cold said:
All of the above images look pretty good and interesting at 500 mb. At the surface, however, temperatures seem very marginal. Slightly below average, but there doesn't seem to be much in the way of a true cold air feed. Clouds and precipitation would obviously keep temps down and the lower heights across the south are good to see. I'm just not sure that the things going on up in the Arctic regions are helping us very much. The big block is interesting, but it doesn't seem to be a help for cold air transport. So, it doesn't look very wintry to me. But I may be missing something.

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You're not wrong. The Euro at D10 was in the process of getting a 50/50 low in position to start training the cold air that is in southeast Canada. The Euro definitely has high pressure in the vicinity but it's certainy too far north as modeled.

To be clear, we don't have any legit storm threats yet (IMO), but ingredients are starting to appear.

6a92f0f9-5767-4f30-923d-239ada89d288.gif
 
1300m said:
You're not wrong. The Euro at D10 was in the process of getting a 50/50 low in position to start training the cold air that is in southeast Canada. The Euro definitely has high pressure in the vicinity but it's certainy too far north as modeled.

To be clear, we don't have any legit storm threats yet (IMO), but ingredients are starting to appear.

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Lots of diverse consensus buzz about ~12th-21st so I'll hold on that. We'll know in a week or so how that window more readily looks though
 
Rain Cold said:
All of the above images look pretty good and interesting at 500 mb. At the surface, however, temperatures seem very marginal. Slightly below average, but there doesn't seem to be much in the way of a true cold air feed. Clouds and precipitation would obviously keep temps down and the lower heights across the south are good to see. I'm just not sure that the things going on up in the Arctic regions are helping us very much. The big block is interesting, but it doesn't seem to be a help for cold air transport. So, it doesn't look very wintry to me. But I may be missing something.

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I agree. This pattern is getting all the cold air from the NE flow (which isn't that cold), rather than an Alaskan Ridge bringing in arctic air. Just meh airmass in the CONUS. I fear all we're rooting for here is a cold rain. We need the pacific trough to establish, pump the AK ridge and hope the weeklies are right for mid February, IMO. 2 weeks from now seems like an eternity.

ecmwf_T2ma_us_41.png
 
packfan98 said:
For fun. Atlanta peeps are going to like this from the Euro weeklies control.
1710201600-htkgD6TwJ7k.png
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What does the regular Ext mean show? I'm curious. With such a crazy good H5 I would hope it would be significant. I really do hope that pattern materializes, I think it's been since 2010 we've had full HL blocking up top and a full troughed east coast and 50/50.
 
February Playbook:
Feb 5: Winter storm chance possible
Feb 1-10: Low pressure replaced with High pressure in East Asia
Feb 10-15: Momentum added into the Pac Jet; Aleutian Low swells and moves east; SW trough kicks east; AK and/or GLand Blocking Increases
Feb 15-25: Southern stream becomes more active; Chances for winter storm or 2 increases
Late Feb into Early Mar: Favorable pattern continues for the most part; favorable MJO phases

Possible Outcomes: Glory Delivered! / Can Kickage / Fail Boat

Euro Weeklies Feb 6 to Mar 12 in 7-day increments
Jan 25 Euro Wk Loop.gif
 
Mitch West said:
I don't have a clue what Spire weather is but I like it lol
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That's a machine learning weather model. Basically an AI model that analyzes all kinds of atmospheric data points and conditions and then spits out an extrapolation based on the likely outcomes of those conditions. It's basically a super ensemble mean as it doesn't "model" the dynamics of the atmosphere. This is from my quick Google search.
 
weatherfide said:
That's a machine learning weather model. Basically an AI model that analyzes all kinds of atmospheric data points and conditions and then spits out an extrapolation based on the likely outcomes of those conditions. It's basically a super ensemble mean as it doesn't "model" the dynamics of the atmosphere. This is from my quick Google search.
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producing a well known likely outcome, a *checks notes* OKC to Charleston slider
 
Webberweather53 said:
2010 is a good example of what this year’s MJO may do over the next several weeks or so.

A very slow grind thru the western hemisphere and Indian Ocean, that takes until late March or so to reach the Maritime Continent as -NAO likely rages on.

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Euro Weekly VP Plot

Jan 25 Euro Wk MJO.png
 
The coupling with El Niño, -NAO, collapse of the +IOD, descending easterly QBO, and our current timing in the seasonal cycle (time of the year where the MJO tends to be at its strongest), and some of the S2S models, all point to a very slow-moving MJO event across the western hemisphere and Indian Ocean the next 2 months.

Feels to me like we’ve stacked the deck towards this kind of scenario where legit S2S forcing in favor of warmer temps doesn’t appear until the latter half of March or so
 
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