Misc Winter Weather Support Group

[Mitch West]

When you look at 2018 I guess we didn't suck...but dang that snow hole in central GA up into SC.

View attachment 143414

Yeh man, I basically made an oath with myself after that disaster of wiffs that i would never allow weather to control my emotions negatively again. I was outside punching air with that January 3rd miss. I was convinced that storm was going to pull a 2000 & come further Northwest than modeled but it never did (at least for South Carolina) The icing on the cake was two weeks later, when it snowed in Atlanta, warmed nosed us, then snowed in Charlotte & dumped on the triangle of NC. But anyways lol

 

[SD]

Yeh man, I basically made an oath with myself after that disaster of wiffs that i would never allow weather to control my emotions negatively again. I was outside punching air with that January 3rd miss. I was convinced that storm was going to pull a 2000 & come further Northwest than modeled but it never did (at least for South Carolina) The icing on the cake was two weeks later, when it snowed in Atlanta, warmed nosed us, then snowed in Charlotte & dumped on the triangle of NC. But anyways lol

Epic namming

 

[SD]

That thing was a NW trend for the ages though

 

[Tarheel1]

Snowniner and Cary wx 95 are back to posting on the reg! ?
The long ranger great pattern must be going to ----! It’s their time to shine and Tennesseestorm will be here any minute and the 3 stooges party will be complete! ?

 

[superjames1992]

That thing was a NW trend for the ages thoughView attachment 143417

? for most RDU folks.

 

[superjames1992]

I really wish the mid to late week clipper had a colder airmass to work with.

If it were the 1980s, we’d get a repeat of January 2003 with it. ?

 

[SD]

If it were the 1980s, we’d get a repeat of January 2003 with it. ?

That one is bothering me

 

[Rain Cold]

That one is bothering me

Yeah that one was super frustrating.

 

[SnowNiner]

I have the dumbest and most unfullfilling hobby in existence. ?.

 

[Stevo24]

Man it’s always a roller coaster in here. Yesterday things were great, today ?

 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

Not trying to be "negative" but realistic here. I just seems like we have been chasing rainbows and unicorns since Dec, and now here we are at the end of Jan, and the only real chance we had didn't work out. I certainly hope that Webb is right and we have some chances in Feb but I have truly lost all confidence in Feb for winter weather, especially after Valentine's day. These have been a tough two years for us winter weather lovers.

 

[1300m]

Man it’s always a roller coaster in here. Yesterday things were great, today ?

It's almost like 240 hr+ model guidance can't be trusted (yes that includes ensembles).

 

[Rain Cold]

It's almost like 240 hr+ model guidance can't be trusted (yes that includes ensembles).

But I did all that work yesterday on the 384 GFS.

 

[1300m]

But I did all that work yesterday on the 384 GFS.

Time to reload!

 

[Disco_Lemonade]

My car had pollen on it, this sucks!!

 

[Chazwin]

Idk I had 3 accumulating snows in March of 2018 and that was after that Feb mega torched. I don't think we can rule March out but obviously snow on March 13th has some different issues vs snow on Jan 13

Thank you for saying this. The idea that it can’t snow in March anymore is rediculous. In March 2017 I had a 3.2” snowfall on the 13th, 2 dustings in March 2018, and then 2.6” on 4/2/2019… those were all within just the last 8 years.

 

[Stevo24]

It's almost like 240 hr+ model guidance can't be trusted (yes that includes ensembles).

But that includes when they don’t show what we want as well right??

 

[1300m]

But that includes when they don’t show what we want as well right??

Sure does. Only problem with that is when it shows what we don't want it has probability heavily weighted towards that being correct lol.

 

[1300m]

Thank you for saying this. The idea that it can’t snow in March anymore is rediculous. In March 2017 I had a 3.2” snowfall on the 13th, 2 dustings in March 2018, and then 2.6” on 4/2/2019… those were all within just the last 8 years.

I do agree with this. I mentioned this yesterday, but cold patterns still produce cold. Anomalously cold patterns still produce anomalous cold. June '23 was a top 10-15 coldest month on record across the Mid-Atlantic.

 

[KyloG]

I like the Op GFS day 10...blocking better.

 

[weatherfide]

12z GFS just parks a 1000mb low off Cape Cod for like 48 hours! lol. Tons of snow for New England.

 

[NBAcentel]

Welp Back to square 1. Models suck again

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Don’t worry guys. It’s a leap year so we have 29 days of February. Our window just expanded!

 

[Mitch West]

Welp Back to square 1. Models suck again

It could be square zero so we are good bro.

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

Some of you need to get another hobby ?

 

[NoSnowATL]

Some of you need to get another hobby ?

You need to come up with new stuff.

 

[BHS1975]

Don’t worry guys. It’s a leap year so we have 29 days of February. Our window just expanded!

Too bad it ends mid Feb now.


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[Drizzle Snizzle]

Hard to believe this weekend marks 10 years since Snowmageddon struck Atlanta.

 

[Mitch West]

Really wild how quick folks shift in here one hour to the next. Lmao

 

[CaryWx]

Still not feeling it for early Feb despite the 12z GFS/GEFS run. Just not unfolding with any degree of confidence

 

[BHS1975]

The only thing the wedge will do is keep us from torching.


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[Tarheel1]

My car had pollen on it, this sucks!!

The new color of snow down there!

 

[Tarheel1]

My car had pollen on it, this sucks!!

We all got our problems!

 

[SnowNiner]

Thank you for saying this. The idea that it can’t snow in March anymore is rediculous. In March 2017 I had a 3.2” snowfall on the 13th, 2 dustings in March 2018, and then 2.6” on 4/2/2019… those were all within just the last 8 years.

Well it's not ridiculous to me, I've had zilch since 2009 IMBY. I'm sure it can snow in March, especially north of I-40 but for the CLT area I've only seen a few wet token flakes in a decade and a half in March. I think there's a reason for that.

 

[weatherfide]

Really wild how quick folks shift in here one hour to the next. Lmao

I know I haven't shifted. I'm still fully convinced I'm done with winter weather chances. I've read or seen nothing to change my mind.

 

[Chazwin]

Well it's not ridiculous to me, I've had zilch since 2009 IMBY. I'm sure it can snow in March, especially north of I-40 but for the CLT area I've only seen a few wet token flakes in a decade and a half in March. I think there's a reason for that.

Did you not get accumulating snow in March 2017 and 2018… I’m in southeastern Union County and got accumulating snowfalls both of those years. The two dustings in 2018 I thought was more up your way. I know the 4/2/2019 event I was just lucky enough to be in the very narrow stripe that really piled up in a hurry. Prior to 2017, the last time that I saw accumulating snow in March was back to back years in 2009 and 2010 when I was still living in Concord. I’m not saying it should be expected, what I’m saying is that it’s not that much less common now than it was 10 years ago.

 

[rburrel2]

12z Euro threading all the needles somehow

 

[BullCityWx]

I stg if that’s the solution in the end

 

[rburrel2]

12z GEFS had the best snow mean yet for this system. Euro shows a hit for the first time. If the EPS shows some noise then we at least have a realistic chance moving forward.

 

[CltNative90]

Did you not get accumulating snow in March 2017 and 2018… I’m in southeastern Union County and got accumulating snowfalls both of those years. The two dustings in 2018 I thought was more up your way. I know the 4/2/2019 event I was just lucky enough to be in the very narrow stripe that really piled up in a hurry. Prior to 2017, the last time that I saw accumulating snow in March was back to back years in 2009 and 2010 when I was still living in Concord. I’m not saying it should be expected, what I’m saying is that it’s not that much less common now than it was 10 years ago.

Based on Webbs map, the March 2017 system was mostly south of I-40 and brought accumulating snow all the way down to the coast in Brunswick County. I know I got an inch or so in south Charlotte.

I don’t think it’s that much more difficult to get snow in March than it was 7 years ago. We’ve just been lacking the set ups to make it happen. Theres a tendency for people to say something doesn’t happen anymore just because they haven’t seen it lately. Looking back at history, there was never a time when we were consistently seeing snow in March year after year, which is why people always cherry pick 1960 and 1980 as wishcasting examples. The interesting and crazy part is the snows we have seen in March skew the means so much that March 2nd is considered Charlottes snowiest day of the year.