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Misc Winter Weather Support Group

Good grief how much snow did Tennessee get ? Some schools have been out for 2 weeks and some are still out tomorrow despite temps in the 60s.
 
Does anyone have maps of the storm that happened 36 hours prior to the January 24-25th event? I've seen one off Eric's site, but it only shows this below. According to many, there was a pretty decent event like a day or so before the main event. 1706126689359.png
 
Mitch West said:
Does anyone have maps of the storm that happened 36 hours prior to the January 24-25th event? I've seen one off Eric's site, but it only shows this below. According to many, there was a pretty decent event like a day or so before the main event. View attachment 143254
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Not in the Triangle. I was here. Very wet cold and showery day. Icy feeling but no ice. low/mid 30s. I recall all this talk about it snowing in Charlotte area during the day though from some of my work colleagues on other calls. Turned over to snow around 7pm or so for me that evening
 
It's fascinating how the different areas remember specific storms so differently; usually because one area's historic storm is another area's epic heartbreak; similar to what happened the last couple of weeks. Jan 2000 and Feb 2004 remain two of the biggest jackpots for central areas of the Carolinas and two of my biggest heartbreaks in the western upstate.

When you look at all these, it becomes very obvious the areas of Western Carolina's and NEGA are actually the hardest areas to get a big jackpot (outside of high elevation). GSPs modern record is 15 inches but that was like 1902. Since then it is 14.4 in 1988. Compare that with many areas getting 18-24+ in jackpots from storms like Feb 73, Jan 2000, Feb 2004, and others. All of those jackpot areas are East of here. Even Asheville's modern record is 18.2, well short of many areas. So while The upstate and WNC get more total snow than other areas of their respective states, their historic jackpots lag significantly (again, outside of high elevation).

I was looking at some in formation on some earlier big storms I could find accounts of and let's just say those would overwhelm our forum.
You may be familiar with the "Snow Campaign" of 1775 during the revolution. I heave read accounts of soldiers crossing through Greenville county (SC). Here is an account of that march and an excerpts that states:

November and December 1775 — The “Snow Campaign” - The Spartan Regiment and other Patriots, under Col. Richard Richardson, set out to attack a Loyalist unit that had camped in Indian territory (present-day Greenville County) for safety. Thomas Sumter participated in this march as Col. Richardson's Aide-de-Camp with the rank of a Militia Captain. The Patriots marched through several feet of snow in early December to accomplish this.

Imagine that!

Here is another page discussing some from the 1800s.

Snowstorms in the South: An Historical Perspective | Weather Extremes

Atlanta, Georgia was amazed recently when 4-6” of snow (and ice) accumulated this past Sunday and Monday. Furthermore, snow fell on Christmas Day (officially 1.4”) in the Atlanta area as well. So how unusual is this? The following is a summary of the all-time greatest snowstorms to have been...
www.wunderground.com www.wunderground.com

Imagine 18" in Savannah (Jan 1800) and the Dec 1886 storm sounds like a monster with up to 2 feet in NGA and 33" in Asheville. It doesn't mention the upstate but I would love to know what those totals were.
 
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Iceagewhereartthou said:
It's fascinating how the different areas remember specific storms so differently; usually because one area's historic storm is another area's epic heartbreak; similar to what happened the last couple of weeks. Jan 2000 and Feb 2004 remain two of the biggest jackpots for central areas of the Carolinas and two of my biggest heartbreaks in the western upstate.

When you look at all these, it becomes very obvious the areas of Western Carolina's and NEGA are actually the hardest areas to get a big jackpot (outside of high elevation). GSPs modern record is 15 inches but that was like 1902. Since then it is 14.4 in 1988. Compare that with many areas getting 18-24+ in jackpots from storms like Feb 73, Jan 2000, Feb 2004, and others. All of those jackpot areas are East of here. Even Asheville's modern record is 18.2, well short of many areas. So while The upstate and WNC get more total snow than other areas of their respective states, their historic jackpots lag significantly (again, outside of high elevation).

I was looking at some in formation on some earlier big storms I could find accounts of and let's just say those would overwhelm our forum.
You may be familiar with the "Snow Campaign" of 1775 during the revolution. I heave read accounts of soldiers crossing through Greenville county (SC). Here is an account of that march and an excerpts that states:

November and December 1775 — The “Snow Campaign” - The Spartan Regiment and other Patriots, under Col. Richard Richardson, set out to attack a Loyalist unit that had camped in Indian territory (present-day Greenville County) for safety. Thomas Sumter participated in this march as Col. Richardson's Aide-de-Camp with the rank of a Militia Captain. The Patriots marched through several feet of snow in early December to accomplish this.

Imagine that!

Here is another page discussing some from the 1800s.

Snowstorms in the South: An Historical Perspective | Weather Extremes

Atlanta, Georgia was amazed recently when 4-6” of snow (and ice) accumulated this past Sunday and Monday. Furthermore, snow fell on Christmas Day (officially 1.4”) in the Atlanta area as well. So how unusual is this? The following is a summary of the all-time greatest snowstorms to have been...
www.wunderground.com www.wunderground.com

Imagine 18" in Savannah (Jan 1800) and the Dec 1886 storm sounds like a monster with up to 2 feet in NGA and 33" in Asheville. It doesn't mention the upstate but I would love to know what those totals were.
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Clemson hasn't gotten a 6 inch snow since 1988.
 
Mitch West said:
Does anyone have maps of the storm that happened 36 hours prior to the January 24-25th event? I've seen one off Eric's site, but it only shows this below. According to many, there was a pretty decent event like a day or so before the main event. View attachment 143254
Click to expand...
Yeah this map is not accurate at all. This event started on the Saturday the 22nd and produced heavy snowfall across the SC upstate, southern NC Foothills and Piedmont. The CLT metro area has widespread 4-7” snow totals and there were even a few 9” reports across York and Lancaster counties in SC. There was actually a 747 that skidded off the runway at CLT airport on Saturday evening. The ZR that happened on Sunday the 23rd wasn’t anything major but it was certainly more than a trace in the CLT area… that’s what set things up to be so rough power outage wise over Union and Stanly Counties… trees still had ice on them and then the 12-18” of heavy wet snow on top of that.
 
Mitch West said:
I love stories like this. Thank you for sharing! I was 8 during this storm. I wish I had memory of the hours leading up to it.
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I remember it well. I've likely shared this story or something similar a couple of times previously. It was a cold rain throughout the entire morning and most of the afternoon while I was at work. An older lady who didn't work in my department but worked in very close proximity would often listen to the radio all day mentioned she had heard a snowstorm was soon headed our way and should arrive around 3pm (she announced this around 2:15pm) She went on to state that we were expecting between 4"-6", and I was like "WTH?!" I would often watch the local news while getting ready for work in the mornings and no such thing was forecasted.

The transition from rain to snow occurred slightly before 3pm and it went from light to moderate snow rather quickly. It looked liked a handful of chicken trucks crashed as the flakes were fat and falling at a fairly rapid pace as we left work. It was a wet snow as it caused numerous power outages. Shortly after midnight, the snow dissipated and we were sitting around with approximately 6 1/2 inches. We missed the remainder of the week of work as that stuff wouldn't melt for anything.

One of the more memorable storms I can recall.
 
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CltNative90 said:
That's actually from KCLT, but includes 4 inches from the 22nd then 4 additional inches they received from the Crusher on the 24th. Not sure why they didn't just include data from the 22nd and 23rd.
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No CLT got 3.7” on the 22nd and officially recorded 8.5” at the airport from the Crusher… I double checked the records just to be sure..there were higher amounts in southeast Mecklenburg. It was just west of the airport that totals really started to fall off.
 
rburrel2 said:
The 12z runs were just awful across the board. Yuck
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They were...why? I thought they were fine. If we get to Feb 1st and models aren't showing cold pushing east by day 10+ then that will suck. Not surprised at all by the models, to get out of this upcoming "bad pattern" always takes longer than we hope.
 
Mitch West said:
I love stories like this. Thank you for sharing! I was 8 during this storm. I wish I had memory of the hours leading up to it.
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We got sent home from school that morning due to some sleet and snow that moved through. I spent the whole day watching Paul kocin on twc. I think around 2pm he started to wave the this is going to be a big deal flag
 
KyloG said:
They were...why? I thought they were fine. If we get to Feb 1st and models aren't showing cold pushing east by day 10+ then that will suck. Not surprised at all by the models, to get out of this upcoming "bad pattern" always takes longer than we hope.
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Way worse for February 5th-9th. Every model/ensemble showed more connection between the Canadian ridge and sub-tropics right through our area. More energy/lower heights sagging in to the Southwest instead. Lots more support for a big great plains spinner with no realy cold air behind it in that timeframe as a result.

Sure, things seemingly still look to evolve in our favor past that, but we have/had a chance within the timeframe before 15+ days out. But that looks diminished for now.
 
Not to mention there's not a single ensemble member amongst GFS/CMC/Euro that shows a dusting of snow for my area in the next 384hrs which gets us through February 8th/9th.

I always take it when no ensemble members show anything; that's a sign the pattern for that timeframe probably won't produce. (I realize that can easily change, just calling it like I see it... the 12z model runs were really bad for wintery weather).
 
rburrel2 said:
Not to mention there's not a single ensemble member amongst GFS/CMC/Euro that shows a dusting of snow for my area in the next 384hrs which gets us through February 8th/9th.

I always take it when no ensemble members show anything; that's a sign the pattern for that timeframe probably won't produce. (I realize that can easily change, just calling it like I see it... the 12z model runs were really bad for wintery weather).
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Yeah, I've seen this before. Most of us are done this year...on to severe threats now.
 
Chazwin said:
No CLT got 3.7” on the 22nd and officially recorded 8.5” at the airport from the Crusher… I double checked the records just to be sure..there were higher amounts in southeast Mecklenburg. It was just west of the airport that totals really started to fall off.
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I’m looking at the NOWData for Charlotte Douglas on the NWS GSP site and it’s showing 4.0 on the 22nd, 4.0 on the 24th, and 0.1 on the 25th. I know the official map of the crusher from NWS RAH, now on Webbers site, shows a 10 inch report in southern Mecklenburg and a 15 inch in southeast Union. It's been said before, but the gradient from northwest to southeast was ridiculous.
 
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Wow. This winter really sucked around here. Not even a chance for a flurry. We did get several cold spells, but I really thought we'd get a least a hint of winter weather.

Rating it a solid D-. I think that pretty much is an overall fail.
 
rburrel2 said:
No reason to cancel winter yet guys. Things look great for Mid-February. All I said was the 12z runs were ugly.
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I made mention of it on the February thread, but I wouldn’t write off something popping up for next week. There remains a strong CAD signal on the ensembles and temperature means in the southeast Canada are -15 to -30f with a good snowpack still in place in the interior northeast. Not saying it’s likely, but it just wouldn’t shock me if something came together then
 
Stevo24 said:
What are you guys talking about. Fab Feb is still on! CAD storms gallore!!
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Are you in VA? If not, CAD isn't going to get it done. Mid-February is basically early spring, so, meh, not excited for any opportunities after 2-15. We can basically see through ensemble lenses out to 2-8 and there is no potential for winter weather. The ensembles have been bad the past three runs.

It's over.
 
weatherfide said:
Are you in VA? If not, CAD isn't going to get it done. Mid-February is basically early spring, so, meh, not excited for any opportunities after 2-15. We can basically see through ensemble lenses out to 2-8 and there is no potential for winter weather. The ensembles have been bad the past three runs.

It's is over.
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You planted your tomatoes yet?
 
rburrel2 said:
No reason to cancel winter yet guys. Things look great for Mid-February. All I said was the 12z runs were ugly.
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Agreed. To be honest, the ensembles haven't ever been very enthused about the first week in February in terms of wintery precipitation, but there have been some improvements from run to run the last couple days on the GEFS and EPS that have made a lot of us think they were possibly trending toward the CAD solutions the GFS was showing on and off. Ensembles are showing high pressure to the northeast and low pressure to the southwest early that week, which can still lead to interesting outcomes. If not, hopefully we're being set up for a better pattern later in the month.

gfs-ens_mslpa_us_49.png


eps_mslpa_us_49.png
 
rburrel2 said:
Way worse for February 5th-9th. Every model/ensemble showed more connection between the Canadian ridge and sub-tropics right through our area. More energy/lower heights sagging in to the Southwest instead. Lots more support for a big great plains spinner with no realy cold air behind it in that timeframe as a result.

Sure, things seemingly still look to evolve in our favor past that, but we have/had a chance within the timeframe before 15+ days out. But that looks diminished for now.
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There was always going to be a price paid for high/mid amp ph 4-6 so expectations should be very low until mid Feb.

IMG_0456.gifIMG_0457.png
 
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