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Misc Winter Weather Support Group

Mitch West said:
Does anyone have a map of the pattern during the Feb 2014 Winter storm? And what site do you find them on? honestly not familiar with looking them up much. I just see people posting them a lot. Just want to get an idea of what was driving such a strong CAD with placement & strength of HP.
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The Big One - Forecast & Discussion

The first thread is getting too large for the database to handle... It's looking pretty likely that we've got a big storm on our hands. Let's continue the discussion here.
www.americanwx.com www.americanwx.com

Feb 12-13 Sleet/Snow/ZR Event

With some consistency coming in the models and the players seeming to be on the field. Plus this is all we're going to talk about for a while, so why not here? My first thread, shoot me if you must!
www.americanwx.com www.americanwx.com

Another good reference
 
Only took a couple days, but I'm back to being hopeful for a winter storm again. Feel even better now that I found out we don't leave for our cruise until February 25th. Was thinking we leave on Feb 15th.

February 5-15 has also historically been a great stretch for winter storms over the last 15 years or so.
 
I know that other areas of the SE tend to generally score more quickly in winter, but those of us in GA/South Carolina have historically performed overwhelmingly the best in Feburary (especially the two week period centered on opposite sides of Valentines' Day). There's no reason to give up hope and it's comforting that the models are starting to zero in on a colder time frame during this period.
 
Snowlover87 said:
What you don’t mention is how it’s been almost 15 years since the I-20 corridor has had anything significant after Feb 15. In the old days it was a lot easier to get snow in late winter. If this was 20 years ago I’d probably feel a little more confident in the prospects of snow late in the winter but times have changed and the climate is warmer.
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That may be the case along I20 I really don't know. I know CAE used to do well in Feb, but they haven't had but 2 inches of snow in 10 years now and that was in Jan 2022.
 
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RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Why's that? Maybe you're referring to where I said they had 2 inches in Jan. Should have said Jan 2022. Will go back and edit.
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January and February 2014 produced more than two inches, respectively. November 2014, depending on where you resided in Columbia, produced two inches or more. March 2017 produced nearly two inches. Those are snowstorms within a 10-year window.
 
ColaSnow said:
January and February 2014 produced more than two inches, respectively. November 2014, depending on where you resided in Columbia, produced two inches or more. March 2017 produced nearly two inches. Those are snowstorms within a 10-year window.
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Can't speak for Rainless, but CAE is the official reporting station NOAA uses for the midlands and they went from Feb 2014 to Jan 2022 without measurable snowfall. I am pretty sure they did not receive anything measurable from the Nov 2014 storm (just a trace). Certainly other parts of the midlands did and may have fared a bit better during that stretch. If you are in Elgin you may have received something from other systems. That Nov 2014 storm had a very hit or miss path, and that was true in the upstate as well. There were places 15 miles from me that had 2-3 inches and places just a few miles that got up to an inch or more, while I only had rain. GSP only had a trace. Here is the map from NWS, not sure how accurate but it looks like it must have missed CAE by a mile or two.

1705980341105.png

 
ColaSnow said:
January and February 2014 produced more than two inches, respectively. November 2014, depending on where you resided in Columbia, produced two inches or more. March 2017 produced nearly two inches. Those are snowstorms within a 10-year window.
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While you're not wrong those were very localized events. I just checked and CAE recorded a T on Nov 1st 2014 and a T on March 12th 2017. They recorded 2.0 on Jan 21st 2022. So if CAE hasn't received any snowfall by the time the 10th anniversary of the Feb 2014 snwofall passes next month that will be only 2 inches 10 years. That's mind blowing to me. Columbia has never been a snowy place by any means. They average what 1.9 inches per year? So you would think they would have had somewhere close to 20 inches in that same span. @Mitch West or anyone from CAE has more right to complain than anyone on here.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
While you're not wrong those were very localized events. I just checked and CAE recorded a T on Nov 1st 2014 and a T on March 12th 2017. They recorded 2.0 on Jan 21st 2022. So if CAE hasn't received any snowfall by the time the 10th anniversary of the Feb 2014 snwofall passes next month that will be only 2 inches 10 years. That's mind blowing to me. Columbia has never been a snowy place by any means. They average what 1.9 inches per year? So you would think they would have had somewhere close to 20 inches in that same span. @Mitch West or anyone from CAE has more right to complain than anyone on here.
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Just curious, what site did you use to check; finding detailed snow records for CAE is difficult; I can't find a layout like NWS has for GSP.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
Just curious, what site did you use to check; finding detailed snow records for CAE is difficult; I can't find a layout like NWS has for GSP.
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Yep it's impossible to find a layout. You just have to use their site and search each month and year separately. I lived there from 2013 to 2018 and did just that. I have it all recorded back to like 1960 somewhere. I'll have look for it. Here is their site.
 
If you just take the low end of what models are showing for rain in the last week of January. The entire area of North GA and Upstate SC will finish the month with over 10 inches of liquid. Sigh
 
rburrel2 said:
It does seem like we will have a favorable period in mid-February, but the fact that we're having to look at a possible favorable period for Mid-February on January 23rd... yuck.
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I still think we have a small window in the 1/30-2/2 timeframe. After that the good thing about those heights over the the lakes is that they appear to be feeding into a nice -NAO.
 
rburrel2 said:
It does seem like we will have a favorable period in mid-February, but the fact that we're having to look at a possible favorable period for Mid-February on January 23rd... yuck.
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It is about time to face the fact that most of us will be shut out again. It is going to be hard to get cold air back down here with all of the US snowpack gone. I'm hoping the warm weather we get later this week takes us right on in to spring.
 
Chazwin said:
I still think we have a small window in the 1/30-2/2 timeframe. After that the good thing about those heights over the the lakes is that they appear to be feeding into a nice -NAO.
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yea. i'm not ruling that out, but we would have to get incredibly lucky to make that timeframe work out.
 
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