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Misc Winter Weather Support Group

RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
A lot on here kind of figures Feb will follow along in the footsteps of the last 8 or 9 or however many it's been. People can say "but we haven't had a Nino, this year is different" all they want. Enso isn't driving this garbage we deal with now. If it did we'd have had several cold Decembers due to all the Nina's we've had. The Pacific is bad for the east, especially the SE. No Enso, -NAO, QBO, SAI or EAMT to anything else is changing that. I mean just look how the MJO has largely avoided phase 8 and looks to do it again. Although I guess the circle isn't horrible but something is keeping it out of the phavorable phases in winter.
View attachment 142823
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A few days ago it was way amped in phase-7. Give it a few more days and see what happens. It's only good for about a week's worth of use and even there the mean shifts--just not as radically.
 
whoa the vibes are TERRIBLE today!!!

Mitch West said:
Well we know now based off this look that we should have our doubts. It's something we can learn from here in the Carolinas & GA. When we have that much of a trough further West, we should be hesitant with no real +PNA involved. We got to stop dropping the trough into Mexico.

Got to give it to the models, they never really gave us much fantasy run action leading up to this period unlike the period leading up to the Late December 2022 Arctic shot where we all were going crazy in here a week before that shot of cold air came. We should of known better with this. I think we know in the future the risk with these huge arctic blast.
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i noticed this too. in my experience you can tell the long range pattern rocks when every GFS run laces a 6-12 incher along a new interstate corridor. didn't have that here. in retrospect mewing about "potential" and "we're so close" feels foolish, makes me sound like a snake oil salesman.

some favorable patterns are cj stroud and some favorable patterns are bryce young. this was a bryce pattern
 
KyloG said:
The fact is we had our chance...some scored. TN/n-AL/n-MS all had great event. Unfortunately the rest of us, east of the mountains blew our chance.

When the Jan composite completes we are going to be left shaking our head and how we screwed this up.
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Lot of truth to your post. This was one of our chances this year and it just didn't work to the east, which is why it is so painful. Hate to have this type of legitimate cold this week and miss out on the goods. Even this little system tonight and tomorrow comes b/w fronts; the timing couldn't be worse. Your map above show it well, move that trough just a smidge East and we could have been in on it. It was just too far West and you can see the effects of the SER. We have to hope for at least one more shot here and hope the cold will be oriented better for us with better timing.
 
ILMRoss said:
whoa the vibes are TERRIBLE today!!!



i noticed this too. in my experience you can tell the long range pattern rocks when every GFS run laces a 6-12 incher along a new interstate corridor. didn't have that here. in retrospect mewing about "potential" and "we're so close" feels foolish, makes me sound like a snake oil salesman.

some favorable patterns are cj stroud and some favorable patterns are bryce young. this was a bryce pattern
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Hang tight. JaMarcus Russell pattern loadingIMG_6209.png
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
A lot on here kind of figures Feb will follow along in the footsteps of the last 8 or 9 or however many it's been. People can say "but we haven't had a Nino, this year is different" all they want. Enso isn't driving this garbage we deal with now. If it did we'd have had several cold Decembers due to all the Nina's we've had. The Pacific is bad for the east, especially the SE. No Enso, -NAO, QBO, SAI or EAMT to anything else is changing that. I mean just look how the MJO has largely avoided phase 8 and looks to do it again. Although I guess the circle isn't horrible but something is keeping it out of the phavorable phases in winter.
View attachment 142823
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I guess I need to continue to be my eternal optimist....but the pattern was always going to be very ugly going through phases 5-6 so I guess we shouldn't curl up in the fetal position just yet.

It's tough to see the forest through the trees..
 
Yep, as I suspected, in the back of my mind, February is not going to turn around fast enough for my area. I need to build some deer proof fencing so I can get my garden going in a few weeks. Mid-February is great for cool season veggies.

Edit: Oh, and by the way, winter 2023/24 is over in Atlanta after Tuesday of next week. Buh bye cold air.
 
KyloG said:
I guess I need to continue to be my eternal optimist....but the pattern was always going to be very ugly going through phases 5-6 so I guess we shouldn't curl up in the fetal position just yet.

It's tough to see the forest through the trees..
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Fair. But phase 7 in a nino does us no good. Ridging across the conus. If the biases are in play and the models of killing the pulse too soon, and we keep moving into 8 I'd feel alot better.

I'm still hopeful, not giving up yet. But if come Feb 1 were seeing the crap we're seeing now in the long range, the towel will be winding up for me.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Hang tight. JaMarcus Russell pattern loadingView attachment 142825
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The one we are getting ready to exit is the Dak Prescott Pattern.
Plenty of promise on the long Range (regular season).
When the lights come on and it's go time short range (Post Season),
Every promising thing that we had showing up in the long range disappears and we end up SNOWLESS.
While we set on the sidelines with that Deer in the Headlights look...
 
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CyclonicFury said:
It really sucks that we wasted our generational snowstorm when I was a year old and couldn't remember it. RDU has been paying for it recently.

That is comparable to your favorite NFL team winning a Super Bowl when you are a year old and never winning one again.
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You just described my whole life...Raleigh snow and being a Cowboys fan. ?‍♂️

200w.gif
 
Pretty simple here. We are paying for getting 3 storms in a row 2 years ago. We will get nothing this winter and nothing next winter. Should be good to go winter of 2026. This is my official forecast.
 
CyclonicFury said:
RDU averaged more than 10" once every 3 years or so from 1887-2004, but since then hasn't had 10" total once in a winter. Our median has dropped from around 7 inches in 1961-1990 to ~2.5 inches in 1991-2020. Things just don't work like they used to.
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Yup. It's unfortunate. It may be cyclical; it may not be. IDK and I'm not sure it matters anyway. Either way, we're in a down cycle right now; there's not much one could say to refute that. I don't care how much cold and snow they get in the midwest or plains. Right here, it has not been very good. The trajectory of everything is to the northeast and the cold has a very difficult time getting east of the Apps, more times than not.

Also, I agree with some of the above around long range winter storms. A legit pattern produces fantasy storms. I do not believe the lack of long range winter storm images is because the models are better. Maybe a little, but that's not the reason. I don't even think the DGEX would do well to bring the goods this day and age.
 
CyclonicFury said:
RDU averaged more than 10" once every 3 years or so from 1887-2004, but since then hasn't had 10" total once in a winter. Our median has dropped from around 7 inches in 1961-1990 to ~2.5 inches in 1991-2020. Things just don't work like they used to.
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I'm surprised our median dropped that much...our 30yr avg is still 5" but dropping fast. AVG did drop from the 1920's to the 1950's from 9" to 6". But then recovered from the 50's to the 80's back up to almost 9" but it's plummeting like a rock since. So yeah, hopefully this is just cyclical but we are kind of at that point where it should rebound if it was cyclical and it's clearly not.

Seems like we are on the path to have the snow climate of the Panhandle...where it ironically snowed this week. ?‍♂️

Screen Shot 2024-01-18 at 1.16.09 PM.png
 
KyloG said:
I'm surprised our median dropped that much...our 30yr avg is still 5" but dropping fast. AVG did drop from the 1920's to the 1950's from 9" to 6". But then recovered from the 50's to the 80's back up to almost 9" but it's plummeting like a rock since. So yeah, hopefully this is just cyclical but we are kind of at that point where it should rebound if it was cyclical and it's clearly not.

Seems like we are on the path to have the snow climate of the Panhandle...where it ironically snowed this week.

View attachment 142832
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Once the crusher drops off it's gonna plummet.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
I do see where Charlotte would be a better place to live for snow than Raleigh in most cases. I wasn't in Raleigh long enough to know for sure but I would imagine the warm nose gets pulled in pretty easily there.
 
BHS1975 said:
Once the crusher drops off it's gonna plummet.


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Yeah, but the awful 90’s will roll off too. 2001-2014 was fairly solid. I will check to see what our 2001-2023 avg is.
 
We should do a poll to see who wins the Winter 2023-2024 Variable or Idea Of The Year award:

Previous winners include:

NAO/AO
ENSO
SAI
Apps Runner
PDO
Solar
Polar Vortex
QBO
Verbatim
Strat Warming
MJO
Mountain Torque

Nominees:

Snowpack
Jet Extension/Retraction
It Just Doesn't Work Like It Used To
 
Rain Cold said:
We should do a poll to see who wins the Winter 2023-2024 Variable or Idea Of The Year award:

Previous winners include:

NAO/AO
ENSO
SAI
Apps Runner
PDO
Solar
Polar Vortex
QBO
Verbatim
Strat Warming
MJO
Mountain Torque

Nominees:

Snowpack
Jet Extension/Retraction
It Just Doesn't Work Like It Used To
Click to expand...
I don't see Aliens on the list. Please add. Thanks
 
Rain Cold said:
We should do a poll to see who wins the Winter 2023-2024 Variable or Idea Of The Year award:

Previous winners include:

NAO/AO
ENSO
SAI
Apps Runner
PDO
Solar
Polar Vortex
QBO
Verbatim
Strat Warming
MJO
Mountain Torque

Nominees:

Snowpack
Jet Extension/Retraction
It Just Doesn't Work Like It Used To
Click to expand...
Don't forget the +IOD collapse.
 
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