Careful, we are wrong for speaking the truth. I expect Allan's forecasting ability to be put into question today, from that post.
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Misc Winter Weather Support Group
- Thread starter RBR71
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Careful, we are wrong for speaking the truth. I expect Allan's forecasting ability to be put into question today, from that post.
Bingo. La Niña all day every day. If you can occasionally pop a favorable PNA with an active northern stream you ALWAYS have a chance at something no matter how progressive the pattern.
Haha yep...this is pretty bad and to get out of this mess will take time. Which I was hoping by mid-Feb we could see a better pattern materialize but that's strictly hope, I have nothing that gives me confidence it will.
At least with a look like this it’s over for everybody and not just the Southeast. I think that’s a consolation prize I’m willing to accept at this point.
My initial thoughts of Feb 8 - 15 are pretty much toast now (pun intended.)
Which sucks because in my area, that is climo for snow events.
Support thread has a head of steam early this morning. Gonna be an entertaining day. Seatbelts everyone
February 24’ ??
FamouslyHot
Member
Really feels like in the past 7 or 8 years winter (in terms of snow chances) has turned into about a month long stretch for the Piedmont/central Carolinas. Starting right after Christmas and continuing to late January. Outside of that you can get seasonal at best, with a few minor exceptions.
Gone are the days of snow averages being highest in Feb. I often see a stat thrown around later in the season that March 2 is actually Charlotte's snowiest day on record. Once you start seeing that and hearing about March 1960 that's how you know it's over.
That said, I've come to peace with it. I grew up in Columbia, that hardens a snow weenie ?. It's still not impossible for snow here, just rarer. And at least I only live a few hours from the mountains where you can still find snow chances throughout the entire season. Maybe one year things will turn around
Gone are the days of snow averages being highest in Feb. I often see a stat thrown around later in the season that March 2 is actually Charlotte's snowiest day on record. Once you start seeing that and hearing about March 1960 that's how you know it's over.
That said, I've come to peace with it. I grew up in Columbia, that hardens a snow weenie ?. It's still not impossible for snow here, just rarer. And at least I only live a few hours from the mountains where you can still find snow chances throughout the entire season. Maybe one year things will turn around
accu35
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We were supposed to get the snowy pattern from the end of January through at least middle February.
I don't understand why the end of January models are showing so warm as we get closer..
Dang.
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
Because things don’t work like they used to.
It's almost like the reason the epic fantasy snowstorms no longer show on long-range modelings is because they've been upgraded and improved so well over the years.
If they can fix that part, why can't they fix the part that shows colder temperatures than we get in the long range?
It's a commercial energy company forecasting conspiracy!
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
Well that takes the fun out of it. I enjoy the epic fantasy snowstorms.It's almost like the reason the epic fantasy snowstorms no longer show on long-range modelings is because they've been upgraded and improved so well over the years.
If they can fix that part, why can't they fix the part that shows colder temperatures than we get in the long range?
It's a commercial energy company forecasting conspiracy!
I feel ya. Born & raised here also. I miss the Winters where we at least got a minor event every Winter. I feel like at minimum we'd atleast get a Winter weather advisory or Freezing rain advisory every Winter (at least in the 32 years of me living).
Right now it’s in the were sucking so bad phase. Keep up the horribleness of winter and it’s gonna hit the ded phase
znel52
Member
We get one good early blast of cold early Nov/Dec. Then we may get about a weeks worth of cold in January. February torch followed by below normal temps starting March and cold rain until mid-Mayish. Rinse. repeat.
If we keep this up, weather will be cold and snowy to defy our forecasts. This is going to work.
THE COPIUM IS REAL.
rburrel2
Member
Does anyone else try to avoid planning vacations in the winter time for that delusional fear in your head that it'll be the one time your backyard gets a generational blizzard?
accu35
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Yes, there’s been many times my wife wanted to go out of town south and I didn’t during winter, if I knew a storm was coming I’ll stay unless it’s north then I’ll go lol
Only 1 time in my life I changed travel plans for snow...I was in NYC on business and flew home early trying to get home for this event below. We got miller-b'd and the event skipped right over Raleigh. That was the last time I did that and I will never do it again. If I had stayed in NYC I am confident Raleigh would have seen 6-8" like CLT, but I wrecked it for everyone in Raleigh. My bad.
What a waste of a perfectly good air-mass.
The fact is we had our chance...some scored. TN/n-AL/n-MS all had great event. Unfortunately the rest of us, east of the mountains blew our chance.
When the Jan composite completes we are going to be left shaking our head and how we screwed this up.
When the Jan composite completes we are going to be left shaking our head and how we screwed this up.
CltNative90
Member
Thanks a lot lol. I was attending State at the time and my parents and brother were sending me pictures of the snow back home in Charlotte. Doesn’t help it all happened on my birthday.
Yeah, that sucks for sure. CLT has had so many more bigger events than Raleigh over the recent years.
Somebody who rhymes with Rick says that's too cold for snowWhat a waste of a perfectly good air-mass.
CltNative90
Member
Not so sure about that. Raleigh does a lot better with the late blooming coastal systems. I did get to experience the Jan 2009 system where Raleigh got 6 inches and Charlotte got barely anything, so it all evened out during my time up there.
Well we know now based off this look that we should have our doubts. It's something we can learn from here in the Carolinas & GA. When we have that much of a trough further West, we should be hesitant with no real +PNA involved. We got to stop dropping the trough into Mexico.
Got to give it to the models, they never really gave us much fantasy run action leading up to this period unlike the period leading up to the Late December 2022 Arctic shot where we all were going crazy in here a week before that shot of cold air came. We should of known better with this. I think we know in the future the risk with these huge arctic blast.
Kinda sorta takes the umph out of the "relax, we're only in mid-December....winter isn't going to start until mid-January" or "relax, we're only in mid-January...winter isn't even supposed to start until early-mid-February" arguments that we hear 80% of winters, doesn't it?
Last time we had a late blooming coastal that benefited Raleigh the iphone wasn't even invented. Along with 2011 above, look at the 2 below. Raleigh has had 1 6" event in 20+ years and CLT spits them out like tic tacs.
Relax, Spring isn't officially until March 20th.
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
Actually it’s March 19 at 1106pm
We all need another December 2018 storm to track. That one was sooo fun. It might’ve ended up a disappointing storm for sime but the model runs for that one was amazing. 2 feet GEFS means, Euro runs showing 2 feet for Greenville. Those were the good times
Cary_Snow95
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accu35
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Relax, Spring isn’t officially until March 20th
Cary_Snow95
Member
A lot on here kind of figures Feb will follow along in the footsteps of the last 8 or 9 or however many it's been. People can say "but we haven't had a Nino, this year is different" all they want. Enso isn't driving this garbage we deal with now. If it did we'd have had several cold Decembers due to all the Nina's we've had. The Pacific is bad for the east, especially the SE. No Enso, -NAO, QBO, SAI or EAMT to anything else is changing that. I mean just look how the MJO has largely avoided phase 8 and looks to do it again. Although I guess the circle isn't horrible but something is keeping it out of the phavorable phases in winter.
I don’t necessarily avoid them, but every time I am out of town in the winter I do worry about this. ?