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Pattern Jammin January 2024

NCSNOW said:
Does it really matter what phase the mjo is in anymore? Seriously, theres always an aurgument to handicap any posotive takeaways no matter what phase it is in. I dont even bother with it, it gets tiring. Never forecasted accurately, always an excuse well if we where in such an such pattern, or it was month x this would be good for SE, but because its xyz its not going to net the same result.
Just watch ensembles and use what your eyes show you pattern chasing. When i see a monster ridge going up the west coast up through western canada i get excited. Then fill in the pieces from there.
Now if one wants to dissect what makes that western ridge get so tall, go for it.
MJO chasing to me has become as fruitful as Judah Cohen snowcover chasing in the fall.
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Yes it matters, it's a big driver of our weather patterns.
 
KyloG said:
But like you said day 15+ isn't to be believed. What we do know is the last week of Jan isn't a great pattern unless you like warm/wet. The 2 weeks after that the MJO will be in phase 6-7...is that a good pattern for snow/cold?
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I’ve tried to insert the charts that Webb posted on 1/6 in the Winter Discussion thread but I can get them to fit without them being too blurry to read. In terms of the daily percentage chance of a winter storm in NC, phase 6/7 in February is actually good in fact both are better than phase 1 and 2…and these numbers are roughly the same during El Niño. I know it goes against what I had understood about the MJO but the info is there in Winter Discussion and you’ll see where I questioned Webb about it and the response. It was really opening to see. Since then I’ve done some research and it was actually very eye opening the number of really good winter storms we’ve seen in phases 4-7. The EPS, GEPS, and GEFS have actually done very well at modeling the H5 pattern several weeks out of late and like has been noted their progression is following about dead on what Webb has been talking about the last 2 months. I think we’ve been so conditioned to focus so much on the MJO ever since that rug pull back in February 2021, but that did fit the climo for La Niña so it made since. We gotta remember though that the MJO is one of many indicies.
 
NCSNOW said:
Does it really matter what phase the mjo is in anymore? Seriously, theres always an aurgument to handicap any posotive takeaways no matter what phase it is in. I dont even bother with it, it gets tiring. Never forecasted accurately, always an excuse well if we where in such an such pattern, or it was month x this would be good for SE, but because its xyz its not going to net the same result.
Just watch ensembles and use what your eyes show you pattern chasing. When i see a monster ridge going up the west coast up through western canada i get excited. Then fill in the pieces from there.
Now if one wants to dissect what makes that western ridge get so tall, go for it.
MJO chasing to me has become as fruitful as Judah Cohen snowcover chasing in the fall.
Click to expand...
Great post.
 
NCSNOW said:
Does it really matter what phase the mjo is in anymore? Seriously, theres always an aurgument to handicap any posotive takeaways no matter what phase it is in. I dont even bother with it, it gets tiring. Never forecasted accurately, always an excuse well if we where in such an such pattern, or it was month x this would be good for SE, but because its xyz its not going to net the same result.
Just watch ensembles and use what your eyes show you pattern chasing. When i see a monster ridge going up the west coast up through western canada i get excited. Then fill in the pieces from there.
Now if one wants to dissect what makes that western ridge get so tall, go for it.
MJO chasing to me has become as fruitful as Judah Cohen snowcover chasing in the fall.
Click to expand...
Ok, maybe if it was in a good phase instead of on that favors hints of a SER this would be a winter storm east of the apps
 
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I'll just share a couple things. 1) In the past, I have figured out that where things usually get testy between me and other posters is when things aren't going well. Obviously, this is one of those times, so I'm going to refrain from posting all of my thoughts and honestly when I go quiet, you'll know it ain't looking good (to me). 2) However, to offer some hope (and perspective hopefully), I will share this....

Me and three of my meteorologist friends do something pretty nerdy every year: we've created a winter snowfall competition that is essentially fantasy draft picks. We break up the weeks from November through March into 4 or 5 day windows, and then have a draft. So your first round pick is the 4 or 5 day window you think is most likely to see snow (at RDU). I'll also add we make these picks independently with no prior discussions about what we are seeing.

Here were four meteorologists #1 picks for their window where they felt RDU was most likely going to snow based on what we analyzed back in November: 1/31 - 2/4, 2/5 - 2/9, 2/10 - 2/14 (me), 2/15 - 2/19. Take that for what you will. In our collective opinions, winter wasn't even going to really get started until February, and all four of us also predicted above-normal seasonal snowfall at RDU. There's nothing to change that thinking as of now.

I get the emotions and the frustrations. I will track anything that moves during winter, and yes I have had a pity party about TN and MS getting snow in a -NAO pattern that looks so good on static maps, but when I look at the placement and retrograding of the TPV westward, I do understand why (too far west, the same problem we've had for years now). In some regards, it is reassuring to know that meteorology still works the same way it always has, and it'll reward the same way it always has when we get just a little bit of atmospheric help.
 
1300m said:
I'll just share a couple things. 1) In the past, I have figured out that where things usually get testy between me and other posters is when things aren't going well. Obviously, this is one of those times, so I'm going to refrain from posting all of my thoughts and honestly when I go quiet, you'll know it ain't looking good (to me). 2) However, to offer some hope (and perspective hopefully), I will share this....

Me and three of my meteorologist friends do something pretty nerdy every year: we've created a winter snowfall competition that is essentially fantasy draft picks. We break up the weeks from November through March into 4 or 5 day windows, and then have a draft. So your first round pick is the 4 or 5 day window you think is most likely to see snow (at RDU). I'll also add we make these picks independently with no prior discussions about what we are seeing.

Here were four meteorologists #1 picks for their window where they felt RDU was most likely going to snow based on what we analyzed back in November: 1/31 - 2/4, 2/5 - 2/9, 2/10 - 2/14 (me), 2/15 - 2/19. Take that for what you will. In our collective opinions, winter wasn't even going to really get started until February, and all four of us also predicted above-normal seasonal snowfall at RDU. There's nothing to change that thinking as of now.

I get the emotions and the frustrations. I will track anything that moves during winter, and yes I have had a pity party about TN and MS getting snow in a -NAO pattern that looks so good on static maps, but when I look at the placement and retrograding of the TPV westward, I do understand why (too far west, the same problem we've had for years now). In some regards, it is reassuring to know that meteorology still works the same way it always has, and it'll reward the same way it always has when we get just a little bit of atmospheric help.
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I know all the local TV mets here said we should get above average snow this winter because of the Nino, and I think most of them said we should get most of the snow in January. Doesn't look good so far.
 
Stevo24 said:
Just how much promise does Feb hold ?? 2 weeks worth?
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I think the first 15-18 days personally look really good. After that you would expect to cycle back around to a milder pattern… perhaps the SSW that occurring right helps to keep us in a good pattern. Who knows on that one though?
 
westmc9th said:
Wouldn't a torch melt some of that snowpack to the north and northwest? Wasn't that the whole point of us "waiting our turn" in January? To let the snowpack build up around us to help filter in the cold? Why root for a torch to melt that?
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So outdoor activities can be enjoyable again
 
westmc9th said:
Wouldn't a torch melt some of that snowpack to the north and northwest? Wasn't that the whole point of us "waiting our turn" in January? To let the snowpack build up around us to help filter in the cold? Why root for a torch to melt that?
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Yes for folks in the Carolinas, we just wasted our opportunity to put one away. Still will be chances down the road in Feb
 
westmc9th said:
Wouldn't a torch melt some of that snowpack to the north and northwest? Wasn't that the whole point of us "waiting our turn" in January? To let the snowpack build up around us to help filter in the cold? Why root for a torch to melt that?
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Even though it will be above normal, it will still be cold in the northern Plains over to the Great Lakes so yeah they’ll be keeping a good bit of there snow pack… keep in my mind how low the sun angle is and how much less daylight they still have. Also this won’t be like mid to late December when so much Pacific air was flooding Canada that it wiped out all the snowpack in the source regions… again those areas are still going to be keeping and building more snowpack
 
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