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Wintry January 14-16th storm potential.

Not seeing my fellow NC/Upstate SC peeps on here so that tells me what I wanted to know about my chances of snow...

but what is keeping the snow out of the NC Mountains? That's pretty surprising to see imo. Obviously it's temps but from a more technical standpoint?
 
SnowQueen said:
Not seeing my fellow NC/Upstate SC peeps on here so that tells me what I wanted to know about my chances of snow...

but what is keeping the snow out of the NC Mountains? That's pretty surprising to see imo. Obviously it's temps but from a more technical standpoint?
Click to expand...
It's not temps for people east of the apps. It's lack of moisture due to the trough orientation and lack of tilt at the right time.
 
DopplerWx said:
Sucks seeing this and knowing we won’t see a flake ?View attachment 141779
Click to expand...
Used to, you would see precip breaking out over TX and watch it trek east. Now it goes northeast. I wish we were all tracking this stuff back then so we could have seen what the models were showing and how their solutions evolved as the system took shape.
 
SnowQueen said:
Not seeing my fellow NC/Upstate SC peeps on here so that tells me what I wanted to know about my chances of snow...

but what is keeping the snow out of the NC Mountains? That's pretty surprising to see imo. Obviously it's temps but from a more technical standpoint?
Click to expand...
Timing and or cold isn't making it there until the storm is passed.
 
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Jackson MS
237 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-MSZ018-019-025>036-040-041-130545-
/O.NEW.KJAN.WS.A.0001.240115T0000Z-240116T0000Z/
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Issaquena-Sharkey-
Including the cities of Crossett, North Crossett, Hamburg,
West Crossett, Dermott, Lake Village, Eudora, Bastrop, Oak Grove,
Epps, Lake Providence, Cleveland, Indianola, Ruleville,
Greenwood, Grenada, Vaiden, North Carrollton, Carrollton, Winona,
Eupora, Mathiston, West Point, Columbus, Ackerman, Weir,
Starkville, Greenville, Belzoni, Isola, Durant, Tchula,
Lexington, Pickens, Goodman, Mayersville, Rolling Fork,
and Anguilla
237 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
accumulations of up to three inches and ice accumulations up to
a quarter of inch.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Arkansas, northeast Louisiana
and central, north central, northeast, northwest and west
central Mississippi.

* WHEN...From Sunday evening through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Icing
could result in power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.
 
Rain Cold said:
Used to, you would see precip breaking out over TX and watch it trek east. Now it goes northeast. I wish we were all tracking this stuff back then so we could have seen what the models were showing and how their solutions evolved as the system took shape.
Click to expand...

Seems hard to get southern stream dominant winter threats imo. Every time it's northern stream vort and hoping it digs, amps, farts right at the perfect location. Nino or not it never seems to trek east anymore.
 
NWMSGuy said:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Jackson MS
237 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-MSZ018-019-025>036-040-041-130545-
/O.NEW.KJAN.WS.A.0001.240115T0000Z-240116T0000Z/
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Issaquena-Sharkey-
Including the cities of Crossett, North Crossett, Hamburg,
West Crossett, Dermott, Lake Village, Eudora, Bastrop, Oak Grove,
Epps, Lake Providence, Cleveland, Indianola, Ruleville,
Greenwood, Grenada, Vaiden, North Carrollton, Carrollton, Winona,
Eupora, Mathiston, West Point, Columbus, Ackerman, Weir,
Starkville, Greenville, Belzoni, Isola, Durant, Tchula,
Lexington, Pickens, Goodman, Mayersville, Rolling Fork,
and Anguilla
237 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
accumulations of up to three inches and ice accumulations up to
a quarter of inch.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Arkansas, northeast Louisiana
and central, north central, northeast, northwest and west
central Mississippi.

* WHEN...From Sunday evening through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Icing
could result in power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.
Click to expand...
i thought it would of been tomorrow
 
iGRXY said:
It's not temps for people east of the apps. It's lack of moisture due to the trough orientation and lack of tilt at the right time.
Click to expand...
Thanks so much! So if we had the precip we would be talking snow here too huh? OK wow.
 
Trigger pulled out of Memphis!! Heavy Snow with 3 to 8 inches possible!


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Memphis TN
254 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-130500-
/O.NEW.KMEG.WS.A.0001.240114T1800Z-240116T1200Z/
Clay-Greene-Craighead-Poinsett-Mississippi-Cross-Crittenden-
St. Francis-Lee AR-Phillips-Dunklin-Pemiscot-DeSoto-Marshall-
Benton MS-Tippah-Alcorn-Tishomingo-Tunica-Tate-Prentiss-Coahoma-
Quitman-Panola-Lafayette-Union-Pontotoc-Lee MS-Itawamba-
Tallahatchie-Yalobusha-Calhoun-Chickasaw-Monroe-Lake-Obion-
Weakley-Henry-Dyer-Gibson-Carroll-Benton TN-Lauderdale-Tipton-
Haywood-Crockett-Madison-Chester-Henderson-Decatur-Shelby-Fayette-
Hardeman-McNairy-Hardin-
Including the cities of Piggott, Corning, Paragould, Jonesboro,
Harrisburg, Blytheville, Wynne, West Memphis, Forrest City,
Marianna, Helena-West Helena, Kennett, Caruthersville, Southaven,
Olive Branch, Holly Springs, Ashland, Ripley MS, Corinth, Iuka,
Tunica, Senatobia, Booneville, Clarksdale, Marks, Batesville,
Oxford, New Albany, Pontotoc, Tupelo, Fulton, Charleston,
Water Valley, Coffeeville, Bruce, Calhoun City, Houston, Okolona,
Amory, Aberdeen, Tiptonville, Union City, Martin, Dresden, Paris,
Dyersburg, Humboldt, Milan, Huntingdon, Camden, Ripley TN,
Covington, Brownsville, Alamo, Jackson, Henderson, Lexington,
Parsons, Decaturville, Bartlett, Germantown, Collierville,
Memphis, Millington, Somerville, Oakland, Bolivar, Selmer,
and Savannah
254 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE MONDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 8
inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of East Arkansas, North Mississippi,
Southeast Missouri and West Tennessee.

* WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through late Monday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.
 
Rain Cold said:
Used to, you would see precip breaking out over TX and watch it trek east. Now it goes northeast. I wish we were all tracking this stuff back then so we could have seen what the models were showing and how their solutions evolved as the system took shape.
Click to expand...
Yep. When I was a teenager in late 70s / early 80s, snow in Dallas meant it was ? gonna snow in Atlanta
 
Rain Cold said:
Used to, you would see precip breaking out over TX and watch it trek east. Now it goes northeast. I wish we were all tracking this stuff back then so we could have seen what the models were showing and how their solutions evolved as the system took shape.
Click to expand...
Getting into the it don't work like it used to posts. Nice evolution today
 
SnowNiner said:
Seems hard to get southern stream dominant winter threats imo. Every time it's northern stream vort and hoping it digs, amps, farts right at the perfect location. Nino or not it never seems to trek east anymore.
Click to expand...
It really is difficult to get good southern stream waves to stay suppressed and have enough cold air available. It's the sort of magic combination that is elusive. Having good sstream waves require the Pac Jet to be extended and at a low latitude...but with that you run the risk of it extending the jet too much and the flow across the CONUS being too zonal. There's a Goldilocks state there that is hard to achieve. Fab Webb Feb is gonna do it though. Take it to the bank.

Source conditions for the cold air dropping down...
9D8Kzp3.png
 
AFD out of Memphis this afternoon:

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 301 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024

Latest surface analysis depict a reinforcing cold front parallel to
the Mississippi River. Behind the front temperatures have dipped
into the upper teens and lower 20s in western and central Arkansas.
These air temperatures will filter into the Mid-South causing overnight lows
to dip into the 20s overnight tonight into tomorrow morning.

Ahead of this front gradient winds will continue to be in the 20-30
mph range and gusts 40-50 mph. A Wind Advisory will remain in place
area wide until midnight tonight as the pressure gradient laxes.
Cool and dry conditions are expected tomorrow and through the day
Sunday ahead of an arctic airmass and associated cold front.

Bitter cold air temperatures and sub zero wind chills are the
primary concern behind this front. Additionally, snow accumulations
and amounts have increase since the previous forecast. The previous
forecast indicated a 700 mb moisture plume, however, latest models
and associated soundings are indicative of saturation falling even
further to the surface; now a 800 mb moisture plume. This dendritic
growth zone is likely to be completely saturated for a large portion
of the Mid-South.

Previous forecast also showed a large dry slot
above the surface which would be indicative of less snow
accumulation and a drier snow. With more saturation in place,
snowfall looks to be more wet, fluffy flakes and accumulation
occurrence is more likely to occur. Temperatures will be generally in
the teens to mid 20s area wide as the precipitation approaches and
begins to fall Sunday night into Monday morning. Given this is a
holiday weekend, travel impacts are likely.

The low pressure system has been trending on a more southerly track
making highest impact zones appear to split the CWA (along the TN
and MS border). Ice accumulation appears limited at this time. Due
to all these factors, a Winter Storm Watch has been issued and will
go into effect 12 PM on Sunday until 6 AM Tuesday for the entire Mid-
South. If trends continue, this will likely be upgraded to a Winter
Storm Warning. Wind Chill products will likely be a possibility as
well.

On Tuesday, dry conditions will return, but the bitter cold is here
to stay. Temperatures will stay below freezing area wide until
Thursday, where most areas will barely hover above freezing. Another
chance of precipitation is possible Thursday.
 
RoddyPiper said:
20/59 may not see anything the way its going. This is an I40 special with a sharp cutoff at the Alabama border.
Click to expand...
Are we still looking at a Tennessee River cutoff on these models or has it trended north?
 
Pup12 said:
Are we still looking at a Tennessee River cutoff on these models or has it trended north?
Click to expand...
Trend has generally been northward with the edge, but the amounts in TN have remained pretty decent. Definitely going to have to drive to middle TN to no be disappointed.
 
RoddyPiper said:
Trend has generally been northward with the edge, but the amounts in TN have remained pretty decent. Definitely going to have to drive to middle TN to no be disappointed.
Click to expand...
That 2021 sharp cutoff in east Madison county still haunts me. I’m about 15 minutes south of the Tennessee line
 
NoSnowATL said:
gfs_asnow_seus_22.png
Click to expand...
Nightmare scenario shaping up again. I know nothing about weather, but we’ve been in a strange pattern the past few years where NW Alabama has cashed in while highway 431 running through Huntsville has become a cutoff. Here’s hoping to NE Alabama and friends in Northern Georgia cashing in ?
 
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