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Wintry January 14-16th storm potential.

ILMRoss said:
what on earth is spire weather. is this the cricket wireless of numeral weather prediction models?



word of caution here, i've noticed ice can be more prevalent than you think in situations where the LP is elongated/banana shaped (which I think we will see here)
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My favorite new model what ever it is!
 
ILMRoss said:
what on earth is spire weather. is this the cricket wireless of numeral weather prediction models?



word of caution here, i've noticed ice can be more prevalent than you think in situations where the LP is elongated/banana shaped (which I think we will see here)
Click to expand...
sleet and freezing rain

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1705816800-Yck0zd8P3Bw.png
1705784400-tVF92zV4Wys.png
 
Had a busy morning at work so I’m just now getting a chance to look at closer at this morning’s models. The biggest and probably most important trend on the GFS I’m seeing is the Greenland block is building in better over Baffin Bay. This is helping to push that vortex further se and not right on Hudson Bay… as Fro mentioned yesterday doing that is giving us a better cold push out ahead of the wave. Also as much as we’ve been used to the NW trend for so many years, since late fall this has been the year of the southeast trend… every system seems be trending further SE the last few days… let’s hope that continues.
 
Stormlover said:
Again, that 10:1 is way low
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I would caution you on buying into really high ratios here in the south. Just my experience that anything more than 12-13:1 is very uncommon outside the higher elevations. Even the January 1988 storm had mostly 11-12:1 ratios in areas that were predominantly snow and with temperatures in the upper teens and lower 20s.
 
KyloG said:
One clear trend is block is trending stronger

View attachment 141411
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Nice find Kylo. Can see the Greenland Block really pressing the heights south there

I'd like to see this W Canada ridge rollover here and give us more positive trough tilt there over the midwest

RZe3mZc.png



Can see it here on the Euro C run

nNgjzOz.gif
 
Chazwin said:
I would caution you on buying into really high ratios here in the south. Just my experience that anything more than 12-13:1 is very uncommon outside the higher elevations. Even the January 1988 storm had mostly 11-12:1 ratios in areas that were predominantly snow and with temperatures in the upper teens and lower 20s.
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Not in these setups with massive arctic air in place. GFS has 22:1 and 23:1 here in north ala during the main part
 
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