Probably going to have a system or 2 over the next 10 days
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Tropical 2023 Tropical thread
- Thread starter Downeastnc
- Start date
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Shaggy
Member
Tornadocane
Member
System over the Bahamas looks a lot more vigorous than yesterday. Bahama Radar shows intense thunderstorms over the big island, and some weak circulation. Bahama Radar: https://radars.bahamasweather.org.bshttps//radars.bahamasweather.org.bs/
Shear looks to have completely subsided. Should produce a significant rainfall for SW Florida over the weekend.
Shear looks to have completely subsided. Should produce a significant rainfall for SW Florida over the weekend.
Brent
Member
Meanwhile in the Pacific Dora is officially a typhoon after being in the Atlantic as an invest and a hurricane across the entire Pacific 
Downeastnc
Member
BHS1975
Member
Models are starting to pop.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
NoSnowATL
Member
1 out of every 10 runs look good.
NoSnowATL
Member
?
Brent
Member
3 areas in the Pacific even after Dora crossed over... I don't expect much in the Atlantic til/unless it slows down over there
weather bubba
Member
I just saw where NOAA finished the computer upgrade they had been promising for a while now and the computing capacity with their new supercomputer has increased by around twenty percent over the previous unit. It will be interesting to see if the GFS forecast model improves with the new system NOAA has in place. If so, long range tropical and winter weather forecasts may not be as off base as before.
AI models will be taking over in the next 5 years or so
BHS1975
Member
Shaggy
Member
It's 300+ on the ensembles but it shows some homegrown mischief
NoSnowATL
Member
Winter storm?
Henry2326
Member
Shaggy
Member
So far the 06z ensemble is less concentrated in the gom and more spread out than the 0z. It's still a 300+ hour signal anyways
NoSnowATL
Member
Have it under 120hrs and I’ll listen.
severestorm
Member
Whatever storm gets in the gulf, it's going to ramp up FAST
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
I wonder whats causing the Gulf to be so warm ?
Avalanche
Member
Lack of any tropical development there??
Brent
Member
Well it's something 
BHS1975
Member
BHS1975
Member
Maybe. Warm SSTs aren't the only thing we need to see.
NoSnowATL
Member
2024.
Brent
Member
Yeah probably not gonna be a big deal regardless. Very hostile out there
There's more to this season than water temps clearly
severestorm
Member
True, I just remember with all the recent storms they all took off in the Gulf with the warm SST(IE. Harvey).
but they still have to have the atmospheric environment to be able to develop… Warm SSTs won’t mean anything if shear is tearing everything apart.
severestorm
Member
What's unfavorable right now and in the rest of the hurricane season in the upper levels in the Gulf?
severestorm
Member
Shear right now looks good in the gulf. If a system pops right now in the gulf, nothing stopping it.
I’m talking about the fact that nothing is getting into the Gulf because it’s getting sheared out too quick before it gets there. You’re correct, if something were to get in the Gulf, it would absolutely explode right now.Shear right now looks good in the gulf. If a system pops right now in the gulf, nothing stopping it.
severestorm
Member
Hurricane's or tropical systems can't form in the gulf?
severestorm
Member
Absolutely they can, Opal in 1995 formed in the Gulf. The problem this year is that there’s been no convection getting into the Gulf to form anything.
severestorm
Member
NoSnowATL
Member
GFS wants to throw everything it has to get a hurricane to develop.
NoSnowATL
Member
Wet GOM = dry land.
Henry2326
Member
One member of Euro ensemble acting like GFS.....
NoSnowATL
Member
Nick is a HUGE weenie. Fun follow tho.
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