Tropical 2023 Tropical thread

[Downeastnc]

GFS teasing SD again....

 

[Downeastnc]

 

[Shaggy]

View attachment 135451

Getting to be close to that time of the year. We will have to see if El Nino is strong enough to offset the bath water out there

 

[BHS1975]

Getting to be close to that time of the year. We will have to see if El Nino is strong enough to offset the bath water out there

Sheets like nitroglycerine as this point.


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[lexxnchloe]

 

[lexxnchloe]

Now the GFS develops a different storm from an african wave.

 

[Snowfan]

NHC now is mentioning the wave in their 7-day outlook.

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
later today and early Friday. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for gradual development of this system while it
moves generally westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph
across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic during the early to
middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

 

[EV/WS]

?

 

[Snowfan]

 

[lexxnchloe]

Interestingly, JB is saying it might be active thru mid augusts, then deadsville for peak.

 

[Chazwin]

This is how you can still get a busy season despite going into El Niño. Sea temperatures as warm as what we typically see in late August and early September allowing for more development before the Niño really takes hold and increasing westerly shear

 

[Downeastnc]

GFS further west with the MDR wave....

 

[lexxnchloe]

Enough to be concerned.

 

[Snowfan]

 

[lexxnchloe]

0ZGFS says all quiet on the atlantic front. The MDR thing washes out and the carib thing is gone.

 

[Shaggy]

0ZGFS says all quiet on the atlantic front. The MDR thing washes out and the carib thing is gone.

It's back on 6z as a safe recurve. I'm moving to Wilmington area in July so either we never see a landfalling cane again or Wilmington gets hit by a strong cane to mess up the new house.

 

[LickWx]

It's back on 6z as a safe recurve. I'm moving to Wilmington area in July so either we never see a landfalling cane again or Wilmington gets hit by a strong cane to mess up the new house.

Why you moving there? Very expensive. New job?

 

[Shaggy]

Why you moving there? Very expensive. New job?

Don't have a job there yet. Me and my wife have wanted to move closer to the water for a few years. My son is a beach freak and that's his happy place. Who doesn't want to give that to their kid?

 

[LickWx]

Don't have a job there yet. Me and my wife have wanted to move closer to the water for a few years. My son is a beach freak and that's his happy place. Who doesn't want to give that to their kid?

Fair enough. As a beach freak I get it. Though Wilmington won’t what it once was . Imo it’s becomin a shallow shell of what it once was. If I could move anywhere it would be to hatteras…I camped out there just this past Sunday night and went fishing. It’s crazy how many of my peers have moved to wilmington