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Tropical 2023 Tropical thread

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Most of the storms this year are going to form in the Central Tropical Atlantic, and blow-up on the way OTS. Despite the trough-like pattern on the East Coast, I suspect a TC will spin-up north of the Islands, and then crank up near the Bahamas. I think Eastern NC is likely to get brushed by a strong TC. It also wouldn't surprise me to see a TW spin-up north of Hispaniola or the Southern GOM, and rapidly intensify into a MH before Landfall before getting whisked up Eastern Seaboard. It's all a guess at this point.

However, I think it's only a matter of time before we see the tropical moisture from the extremely warm East Pac. and SW Atlantic is funneled into the Southern and Eastern States (AZ to TX/KS to the Mid Atlantic). These troughs over the East Coast are about to slow in Central US and stall-out over the Eastern third of the nation. Someone is going to get plastered.

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Something to watch during the August 12th-14th Timeframe. TW tries to spin-up between SE Coast of Florida and Central GOM. CMC takes it east of the Florida Coast, as the trough strings it out in the West Atlantic.


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And look at this swamp sauna. It's disgusting. One of these nights I bet we tie the record low Maximum of 85 in Fort Lauderdale. The other record I'm watching is total season rainfall. Right now we've had 69", which is more than our average annual rainfall of 64.22". This could be the year we make it to the triple digits.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
500 AM AST Sun Aug 6 2023

"At least through Thursday, the precipitable water content is
expected to remain above normal levels (between 2.00-2.40 inches).
This is in response to a tropical wave crossing the islands on
Wednesday, followed by a stronger tropical wave on Thursday."

National Weather Service

forecast.weather.gov forecast.weather.gov
 
This aint the year/season for the tropics. Next year 2024 will be a different story. Course all it takes is one to whip up at the right time,place.
 
severestorm said:
Nino's suck for African storms. They get sheared and shredded. Only homegrown storms this year it appears.
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I think you’re correct here. Too much shear is already setting up for those waves. I would watch the western Caribbean as we get further into August and September.
 
severestorm said:
Nino's suck for African storms. They get sheared and shredded. Only homegrown storms this year it appears.
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Most of the African storms recurve anyway... I mean yeah every now and then one gets through but the list that don't is longer. We just remember the ones that did...

Always want to watch homegrown more
 
Brent said:
Most of the African storms recurve anyway... I mean yeah every now and then one gets through but the list that don't is longer. We just remember the ones that did...

Always want to watch homegrown more
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Since this El Niño appears to be trending stronger, I went and looked at both the 1997 and 2015 seasons. Both of these were in the start of very strong Niños and all the storms to impact the US mainland those years were homegrown. Also they don’t necessarily have to hit the mainland to have a big impact. Joaquin in 2015 moved well east of the southeast coast after developing in the western Caribbean and moving over Cuba… however a low in the strong STJ was able to tap into Joaquin’s moisture a produce major flooding for much of the central and eastern Carolinas.
 
I don't think conditions for tropical development will be favorable for the next ten days or so in the Atlantic. There is a lot of dust and dry air from the Sahara flying around and a strong trough is forecast to set up shop off the Northeast US feeding strong wind shear throughout the Atlantic and Caribbean. Once that trough relaxes and the dry air flow weakens, the bath water in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico will add plenty of fuel for something strong to develop.
 
weather bubba said:
I don't think conditions for tropical development will be favorable for the next ten days or so in the Atlantic. There is a lot of dust and dry air from the Sahara flying around and a strong trough is forecast to set up shop off the Northeast US feeding strong wind shear throughout the Atlantic and Caribbean. Once that trough relaxes and the dry air flow weakens, the bath water in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico will add plenty of fuel for something strong to develop.
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Feels like a "homegrown" late season, maybe October, special type of year
 
metwannabe said:
Feels like a "homegrown" late season, maybe October, special type of year
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Need you to calm down with this. Just booked my first adult vacation in Key Largo in mid October with the wife. Although since I did this, it’s almost guaranteed to have one sitting just off the coast of Key Largo the day before.


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