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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

Well the current model runs are backing off the temps just a notch for later in the week. The GFS showing low to mid 70s for most on Thursday, a pretty good drop; looks like maybe some clouds. Euro backed off just a couple of degrees for Thurs as well, but both models bring in the relieving cool front quicker after and look a bit wedgier. The CMC is still the hottest, showing widespread 80s, but even that has backed down a couple of degrees (ICON similar). All 3 indicate a return to more seasonable temps after that. Nothing wintry but at least more typical and refreshing.

gfs_T2m_us_18.png


ecmwf_T2m_us_35.png


gem_T2m_us_18.png
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
Well the current model runs are backing off the temps just a notch for later in the week. The GFS showing low to mid 70s for most on Thursday, a pretty good drop; looks like maybe some clouds. Euro backed off just a couple of degrees for Thurs as well, but both models bring in the relieving cool front quicker after and look a bit wedgier. The CMC is still the hottest, showing widespread 80s, but even that has backed down a couple of degrees (ICON similar). All 3 indicate a return to more seasonable temps after that. Nothing wintry but at least more typical and refreshing.

gfs_T2m_us_18.png


ecmwf_T2m_us_35.png


gem_T2m_us_18.png
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Actually still looks the same to me next Thursday, most guidance is upper 70s/80 A65149AC-2A12-422F-9E6B-26C02F8A9D7E.png42781B35-F2E8-4666-BB90-262AC78FB43E.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Actually still looks the same to me next Thursday, most guidance is upper 70s/80 View attachment 133397View attachment 133398
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Yours are different maps, I'm just going off the 18z images from previous runs.

Regardless, this is record breaking stuff in many areas. GSP NWS forecast for Thurs is a high and low of 82/65 which would break all time monthly high records for both highs and lows; previous are 81 and 62. For perspective, the normal averages for Feb 23 at GSP are 58.8 and 36.4. GSP does not have an average high of 82 until May 24 and an average low of 65 until June 13th; and these are the readjusted normals! I guess if you like record heat in the winter this will be enjoyable but this is crazy town stuff.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
EPS has trended much warmer early March, thanks to the very persistent -PNA, December 2021 is a great example of torching during a -NAO thanks to a -PNA, EPS mean temps are already widespread 60s during this time, some members already have 70sView attachment 133392>View attachment 133393View attachment 133395>View attachment 133394View attachment 133396
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Yeah when you look at the eps plumes there are cooler members but nothing supporting cold and snow, all of the noise in the day 8-10 disappeared as well
 
SD said:
Yeah when you look at the eps plumes there are cooler members but nothing supporting cold and snow, all of the noise in the day 8-10 disappeared as well
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Yep, no evidence either of a TPV under the block, gonna be hard to snow with this look, pacific is garbage so it’s gonna be difficult to get Arctic origin air under the block BEE4C680-5EB5-4C9C-AF39-0230258BB2A9.png
 
CyclonicFury said:
NWS calling for a high of 89 degrees in Raleigh on Thursday. That would be unbelievable and would shatter records. We usually don't get days that warm until May!
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Holy hell. Yeah that would freak folks out. Would be like that alien movie with the mega solar flare.


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There will be frozen precip stretching across the ENTIRE US west to east in a few days.... this has to be one of the most widespread events atleast that I've ever seen.E8522785-A0A0-4C04-B2D1-9795BEE671AF.png
 
CyclonicFury said:
NWS calling for a high of 89 degrees in Raleigh on Thursday. That would be unbelievable and would shatter records. We usually don't get days that warm until May!
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Hopefully we can get into the low 90s. For all intents and purposes, winters in the southeast are over. Just have to enjoy the fewer and fewer days where running the AC is not necessary.
 
Rain Cold said:
It lives in 3-6.5 now. Doesn't matter what ENSO is.
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It’s all super wonky right now. We could be witnessing the earliest breakdown of the PV ever with this possible final warming.

They’ll be writing papers about it.

There seems to be an atmospheric disconnect where the ENSO and MJO both be fail to accurately predict what our weather will be.


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Chazwin said:
Wow I’m 40 miles south of Enochville and mine haven’t bloomed yet. I fully expect the middle of next week for everything to start getting in full bloom as I’m convinced we could make a run at 80 on Wednesday. Looking at ensembles at the next couple weeks, I think we’re gonna see some pretty wild swings… especially in the CAD areas. There will be more warm days that’s cool, but I think the closer we get to March, CAD might become more prevalent…. Definitely would follow how we’ve seen things go the last several years
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I'm 20 miles south of Enochville myself and the ones in my neighborhood haven't bloomed either. What the heck tree with white blooms did I see? I noticed some trees with pink blooms in Harrisburg yesterday and good grief it's like all the trees already are budding. This is insanely early.
 
Once again as we get closer the MJO is almost completely avoiding the colder phases. Not that it matters much at this point though. Whatever is causing this every winter, and I have doubts it's La Nina since it seems like it was the same thing in 18-19 and 19-20 when there wasn't a La Nina, there won't be any change to our winters going forward. We've had what one good month in the last 5 years which was Jan 22?
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RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Once again as we get closer the MJO is almost completely avoiding the colder phases. Not that it matters much at this point though. Whatever is causing this every winter, and I have doubts it's La Nina since it seems like it was the same thing in 18-19 and 19-20 when there wasn't a La Nina, there won't be any change to our winters going forward. We've had what one good month in the last 5 years which was Jan 22?
View attachment 133423
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Exactly. Copy and paste this image every winter.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Once again as we get closer the MJO is almost completely avoiding the colder phases. Not that it matters much at this point though. Whatever is causing this every winter, and I have doubts it's La Nina since it seems like it was the same thing in 18-19 and 19-20 when there wasn't a La Nina, there won't be any change to our winters going forward. We've had what one good month in the last 5 years which was Jan 22?
View attachment 133423
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I'm thinking it's the warming of the waters in the WPAC which isn't going to change anytime soon.


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^^^I don't know. One way to look at it is we've had bad spells before. The early 90s sucked (at least for my area). I would wager we'll see some (much) better winters moving forward. Folks to the west of us (like Memphis) consider these past few years as some of their greatest winters. So there is still cold air. We just need to shift the pattern towards our area. Hopefully next year with a la nina things will (greatly) approve. Heck, it's got to improve some.

In the near term. I'm about to throw the towel in for this year. Even with a big pattern change in the middle of March it's just getting too far into the year for any big (cold)winter storm. Of course, if we can change the pattern, there could be some sloppy 1-2" snow events. We could hope for that just to not have a shutout.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Once again as we get closer the MJO is almost completely avoiding the colder phases. Not that it matters much at this point though. Whatever is causing this every winter, and I have doubts it's La Nina since it seems like it was the same thing in 18-19 and 19-20 when there wasn't a La Nina, there won't be any change to our winters going forward. We've had what one good month in the last 5 years which was Jan 22?
View attachment 133423
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February 2019 & 2020 were not this warm.
 
FallsLake said:
^^^I don't know. One way to look at it is we've had bad spells before. The early 90s sucked (at least for my area). I would wager we'll see some (much) better winters moving forward. Folks to the west of us (like Memphis) consider these past few years as some of their greatest winters. So there is still cold air. We just need to shift the pattern towards our area. Hopefully next year with a la nina things will (greatly) approve. Heck, it's got to improve some.

In the near term. I'm about to throw the towel in for this year. Even with a big pattern change in the middle of March it's just getting too far into the year for any big (cold)winter storm. Of course, if we can change the pattern, there could be some sloppy 1-2" snow events. We could hope for that just to not have a shutout.
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The cold air is going away even in Memphis where they've had some of their greatest winters ever in the last 30 years. Hardly a blip on the radar in the grand scheme of things w/ a very significant long-term downward trend.

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