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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

SD said:
That gfs run is an ugly zr scenario from US1 west. Dews in the upper single digits to teens when this gets going it would be hard to push that above freezing until you've dropped .25-.5 of qpf
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I'm not sure it warms up as much as shown either since a high pressure center pops nearby. Another .25 could fall before it warms up. 28 near Columbia SC and 33 in the GSP metro is suspect too for a CAD event.
 
SD said:
That gfs run is an ugly zr scenario from US1 west. Dews in the upper single digits to teens when this gets going it would be hard to push that above freezing until you've dropped .25-.5 of qpf
Click to expand...
Still a lot of time for large scale things to change, but in a general sense we do well in these scenarios where we get a cold/dry airmass entrenched at the surface and then have to worry about the main CAD high pulling out to sea. The leftover in-situ wedge/high usually performs better/stronger/colder than models show, even in the short range.
 
I’m not buying the snow solution either we need to rely on this big high cad in an otherwise gay pattern. We can get the temperatures at the surface and let the higher levels blaze. Then we will just need moisture which I will have more to talk about later this week. I could the setup favoring more east and less further west and north.
 
rburrel2 said:
If this threat comes to fruition I just want to point out the JMA lead the way... and it's honking again today.View attachment 131649
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JMA definitely has the best look at day 7 as it wants to dig a deeper low anomaly to the south into the S Plains with weaker anomaly running west to east into the Great Lakes. Any quicker and/or stronger low anomaly / waviness running west to east into the Great Lakes will want to kick our damming high off the coast quicker.

JMA images…

1674949838208.png

1674950469627.png
 
Another good NC High Country snow upcoming this week. That will make 8 for the season so far and around 40” in the best locations

Don’t miss out by just focusing on one’s ‘back yard’.
 
NCHighCountryWX said:
Another good NC High Country snow upcoming this week. That will make 8 for the season so far and around 40” in the best locations

Don’t miss out by just focusing on one’s ‘back yard’.
Click to expand...

Yeah. We made the drive to beech last week to hit the sledding hill. Totally worth it but not the same as back yard snow. Super cool though.


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6z GFS showing frozen precip for parts of NC/SC next weekend.
69dee5f65aa355df262c80ec732f5c99.gif


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