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Pattern Jammin January 2023

I unfortunately still think we are probably gonna be stuck in this garbage pattern for the long haul. Could be a few bouts of cooler air and maybe a snowball’s chance in hell something shows up, but it’s objectively not a good look to give us a big storm.

Add at least 3-3.5 weeks onto Jan 25-30 & that’s about how long I suspect this is gonna last. We might be able to turn the tables in our favor sometime around the last week of February or early March, but I just don’t see a legit good pattern showing up between now and then.

I don’t think winter is over by any means, seems like it’s going to procrastinate down to the very last minute
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Webberweather53 said:
I unfortunately still think we are probably gonna be stuck in this garbage pattern for the long haul. Could be a few bouts of cooler air and maybe a snowball’s chance in hell something shows up, but it’s objectively not a good look to give us a big storm.

Add at least 3-3.5 weeks onto Jan 25-30 & that’s about how long I suspect this is gonna last. We might be able to turn the tables in our favor sometime around the last week of February or early March, but I just don’t see a legit good pattern showing up between now and then.

I don’t think winter is over by any means, seems like it’s going to procrastinate down to the very last minute
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Yeah I was thinking the same. Even in nature there doesn’t seem to be any rush to prepare for anything cold or stormy. I saw some mention if we were to get any type of winter weather it would be a CAD event and we sometimes score there. The wait and see game continues.


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HurricaneSolomon said:
Yeah I was thinking the same. Even in nature there doesn’t seem to be any rush to prepare for anything cold or stormy. I saw some mention if we were to get any type of winter weather it would be a CAD event and we sometimes score there. The wait and see game continues.


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Most likely gonna need the wavelengths to shorten a lot late Feb or early March to break down the canonical Nina/-PNA look


Oconeexman said:
Frothy 23 this morning..a little taste of spring this week esp down in Brunswick!View attachment 130249
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Lol at the mower ad. They know what's coming
 
The GEFS extended + ECMWF weeklies going thru mid February make a lot of sense to me in the context of ENSO, subseasonal variability, and just stereotypical planetary wave evolution.

I think this -PNA transitions to more of a +EPO look as we go from early to mid February. Any cold air off to our NW probably gets increasingly bottled up into Alaska + western Canada & the SE US ridge flexes up the East Coast as the first half of February wears on, very typical of La Nina Februarys.

I honestly can't think of a much uglier look than this for the first half of February, but I'm not too surprised by it either given all of these things have seemed pretty evident to me for several weeks. This is the part of the winter where not being in an El Nino often comes back to bite you.

Winter isn't quite over yet tho imho

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Webberweather53 said:
The GEFS extended + ECMWF weeklies going thru mid February make a lot of sense to me in the context of ENSO, subseasonal variability, and just stereotypical planetary wave evolution.

I think this -PNA transitions to more of a +EPO look as we go from early to mid February. Any cold air off to our NW probably gets increasingly bottled up into Alaska + western Canada & the SE US ridge flexes up the East Coast as the first half of February wears on, very typical of La Nina Februarys.

I honestly can't think of a much uglier look than this for the first half of February, but I'm not too surprised by it either given all of these things have seemed pretty evident to me for several weeks. This is the part of the winter where not being in an El Nino often comes back to bite you.

Winter isn't quite over yet tho imho

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Too early to look at next winter projections?
 
27 this morning, and stayed up and kept us from really bottoming out. Oh well tonight should be just as cold or cooler
 
In Orlando for the week, so no chair pics for the Thursday blizzard! ?3496C3EF-8A56-4309-B221-D9EAA728C4A1.png
 
MJO or not, we're generally pretty screwed in early-mid February; SE ridge on steroids.

Sure, we could sneak a winter storm by a stroke of amazing unforeseen synoptic luck, but I'd probably punt this winter until at least Feb 20th outside the mountains if you're looking for a consistently decent pattern

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Webberweather53 said:
MJO or not, we're generally pretty screwed in early-mid February; SE ridge on steroids.

Sure, we could sneak a winter storm by a stroke of amazing unforeseen synoptic luck, but I'd probably punt this winter until at least Feb 20th outside the mountains if you're looking for a consistently decent pattern

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Idc what anything shows anyone that punts a whole month of Winter away has lost their Frigging minds. That's just crazy when anyone knows weather and Model data can change in a hurry!

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Webberweather53 said:
You mean mostly above average.
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No, I mean average. 00z EPS out to 360hrs looking at 500mb height... if you look from day 7 until the end fo the run my backyard has 16 segments that are neutral, 10 that are just one or two anomalies above average, and 5 days that are one or two anomalies below average.

It's fine if you want to think we torch, and maybe we do... you have made some good points. But the ensembles are not even close to showing a torch in the viewable range right now. A torch is getting under a ridge like you see the in the gulf of alaska on this map. Being one anomaly above normal on a 300hr ensemble mean is not torchy. Screen Shot 2023-01-15 at 10.47.57 AM.png
 
Snownut said:
Idc what anything shows anyone that punts a whole month of Winter away has lost their Frigging minds. That's just crazy when anyone knows weather and Model data can change in a hurry!

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I hear this all the time from my friends and colleagues. Unfortunately, I think a lot of people here have been in denial for weeks and don’t objectively look at things/ let their own desire for snow/cold muddle how they perceive the extended range. I know very well what I’m doing and we’ll revisit this in several weeks.
 
rburrel2 said:
No, I mean average. 00z EPS out to 360hrs looking at 500mb height... if you look from day 7 until the end fo the run my backyard has 16 segments that are neutral, 10 that are just one or two anomalies above average, and 5 days that are one or two anomalies below average.

It's fine if you want to think we torch, and maybe we do... you have made some good points. But the ensembles are not even close to showing a torch in the viewable range right now. A torch is getting under a ridge like you see the in the gulf of alaska on this map. Being one anomaly above normal on a 300hr ensemble mean is not torchy. View attachment 130266
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This whole post just sounds like wishcasting.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I hear this all the time from my friends and colleagues. Unfortunately, I think a lot of people here have been in denial for weeks and don’t objectively look at things/ let their own desire for snow/cold muddle how they perceive the extended range. I know very well what I’m doing and we’ll revisit this in several weeks.
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Yeah and I know good and well you've been wrong before too quit a bit actually. I don't care how much you know what you're doing you don't always get it right.

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Snownut said:
Yeah and I know good and well you've been wrong before too quit a bit actually. I don't care how much you know what you're doing you don't always get it right.

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Sounds like more wishcasting to me. This objectively isn’t a good pattern we’re going into and it’s not going to get any better for the foreseeable future/next several weeks.
 
Stevo24 said:
Why do you get so upset when people think positive?
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I’m just trying to set folks straight and give them a dose of reality. “Always being positive” leads to wishcasting and in some cases just flat out denial. That’s fine and all but it’s hard to be objective with that kind of mindset.

If things looked good going forward, I’d be certain to let you know about it like I did in November and December when a legit pattern did show up (but we failed to capitalize)
 
Webberweather53 said:
I’m just trying to set folks straight and give them a dose of reality. “Always being positive” leads to wishcasting and in some cases just flat out denial. That’s fine and all but it’s hard to be objective with that kind of mindset.

If things looked good going forward, I’d be certain to let you know about it like I did in November and December when a legit pattern did show up (but we failed to capitalize)
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100 percent agree with u webber. as long these storms keep slamming the west coast. winter will be hard to get anywhere east of the ms river. pattern forward looks very la ninish to me. as we go forward i only see the se ridge get even stronger.
 
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