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Pattern Jammin January 2023

iGRXY said:
to me we have about a 7-10 day timeframe here. Maybe 14 if we can get lucky with the mechanics. I think we have a good chance to score here, especially along and west of the Mississippi and the CAD regions, but I fear specifically for us in the western Carolina’s that it will be ice. Miller A’s just don’t happen anymore. We almost always rely on overrunning or Miller B’s and that tends to be ice or luckily some front end FGEN driven stuff. Or getting an ULL to track perfectly for us for snow. Who knows, I have faith we will get something, just worried it’s going to come in the form of sleet and ZR.
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I agree with that. We have been lucky since 2005 with ice but I can see that coming to an end. I had rather have sleet than ice any day.
 
Chazwin said:
Yeah… I don’t really know how he can speak in absolute about that when a year ago at this time there was 3 straight weekends with at least an inch of snow. As rough as this snow drought has been the last few years, it’s nothing compared to how bad the early to mid 90s were
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"...Snow Days Are Probably Gone"? Really now. That's not what is actually happening. You have to love click bait headlines. Disappointed in the Charlotte Magazine.
 
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JHS said:
I agree with that. We have been lucky since 2005 with ice but I can see that coming to an end. I had rather have sleet than ice any day.
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For those of us that went through all the ice storms of the 90s and early 2000s, the fact that the southern NC Piedmont and SC Upstate hasn’t had a widespread major ZR (.25” or greater ice accrual) since December 2005 storm really is astounding. The interesting thing is that we haven’t missed out on them because of being too warm either. Basically all of the times that it looked like we would deal with a major ZR event, things have trended colder in the last 24 hours to give us predominantly sleet instead.
 
GoDuke said:
Had to be Brad P ?
Hope he’s wrong but his graph is concerning. https://www.charlottemagazine.com/content/uploads/2023/01/q/u/oc-sep-totalsnowfall-1879-2022.jpg
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The graph data is certainly valid and we take data sets in 10yr increments and average the last three. In other words we use the 1990-1999, 2000-2009, and 2010-2019 for average highs & lows for example. We we just recently dropped the 1980-1989. Snow totals have dropped for sure but to headline the snows are probably gone is pure unadulterated balderdash
 
CltNative90 said:
https://www.wcnc.com/amp/article/we...look/275-d7db1cc2-2662-411a-95c8-5dab5beac709

Interesting that he predicted above average snowfall in Charlotte this winter in his outlook back in November and now it’s never gonna snow again.
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In reading the article -- didn't really say that just the chances increasing Charlotte will have snowless winter more sooner than later. Doesn't mean "snows probably gone". It's a hook headline and poor journalism
 
iGRXY said:
to me we have about a 7-10 day timeframe here. Maybe 14 if we can get lucky with the mechanics. I think we have a good chance to score here, especially along and west of the Mississippi and the CAD regions, but I fear specifically for us in the western Carolina’s that it will be ice. Miller A’s just don’t happen anymore. We almost always rely on overrunning or Miller B’s and that tends to be ice or luckily some front end FGEN driven stuff. Or getting an ULL to track perfectly for us for snow. Who knows, I have faith we will get something, just worried it’s going to come in the form of sleet and ZR.
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Sorry if this was already asked but why don’t Miller A’s happen anymore? I remember as
A kid they happened often but I can’t remember the last time I actually saw one
 
shortstopsergio said:
Sorry if this was already asked but why don’t Miller A’s happen anymore? I remember as
A kid they happened often but I can’t remember the last time I actually saw one
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They will happen again. Gulf is the birthplace of classic Miller A/ Nor’easters and those aren’t going anywhere. We’re all overdue.
 
CaryWx said:
In reading the article -- didn't really say that just the chances increasing Charlotte will have snowless winter more sooner than later. Doesn't mean "snows probably gone". It's a hook headline and poor journalism
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Definitely poor journalism and I hope Brad didn’t agree to the headline. From the article, it sounds like the interview took place around the same time he released his winter outlook.

Regarding the chart depicting the downward trend in annual snowfall, there’s clearly been a lack of “big snow” years the past thirty years or so, compared to previously, but there is also a ton of variability prior to that. If you were to look at 1879-1990, the line would probably have an upward trajectory, even though there were duds in between. I would argue that many of the winters where Charlotte only received a trace of snow could easily be snowless, and I’m pretty confident Raleigh has had snowless winters in the same time periods.

As far as the science behind the article, I’m far from an expert but I’d like to believe the changes in jet configuration are not set in perpetuity, and there will be windows of opportunity, just like we had last winter. All it takes is a couple good years or a couple big dogs to level out that trajectory.
 
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Models have consistently painted a Friday jackpot in the western facing mountains just above Gatlinburg. Clingmans Dome/Newfound gap sitting at just the right angle on this one to wring out all available moisture. It will be interesting to see what happens. Really pulling for the NC ski resorts on this one. They need it.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Models have consistently painted a Friday jackpot in the western facing mountains just above Gatlinburg. Clingmans Dome/Newfound gap sitting at just the right angle on this one to wring out all available moisture. It will be interesting to see what happens. Really pulling for the NC ski resorts on this one. They need it.
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Maybe you should have gotten you a cabin at Ober Gatlinburg or Mt leconte

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Snownut said:
Maybe you should have gotten you a cabin at Ober Gatlinburg

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@Parker will be at Ober this weekend. We were at Ober over Christmas break. I haven’t been to Sugar/Beech in nearly 3 years. I grew up skiing there and they always do well with these. I’ve rode out some big flow events on that mountain. Nothing like scaling that mountain and going from partly cloudy skies to puking snow in the blink of an eye. Wild micro climate up there. A lot of fun.
 
MichaelJ said:
I agree with SD, it will be a gradual step down mode and the finale will be very cold. After that around Feb 5-10th the rubber band snaps and our old friend the SER makes a grand entrance for a while. I believe we have a good chance of seeing some short cold period in March and a very cool April
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Good ole JB has been saying this for a while almost word for word. Interesting.
 
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NCHighCountryWX said:
www.charlottemagazine.com

Why Charlotte's Snow Days Are Probably Gone - Charlotte Magazine

It used to fall here at least a few times a year. ------------- explains why that's likely over
www.charlottemagazine.com www.charlottemagazine.com
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Hit that link and look at the recorded events at GSP since 1879 or so.
What was stunning to me was the lack of big snows & just Snow in the 50's & before all the way back to the late 1800's.
I was under the impression that the western Carolinas & NE GA averaged much more snow before the 60's.
Their was many many years with Trace amounts before AGW.
IMHO there's other things going on than just Climate change.
Cities & population bases are much larger causing more heat islands.



Greenville/Spartanburg Area Detailed Climate Information

www.weather.gov
 
While I know it’s forbidden to look 14 days out it seems that at times colder air looks promising only to see it slowly disappear as we get closer to those dates. I know this is why the 5 day look ahead is better but as is always the case we shall see.


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Billypg70 said:
Hit that link and look at the recorded events at GSP since 1879 or so.
What was stunning to me was the lack of big snows & just Snow in the 50's & before all the way back to the late 1800's.
I was under the impression that the western Carolinas & NE GA averaged much more snow before the 60's.
Their was many many years with Trace amounts before AGW.
IMHO there's other things going on than just Climate change.
Cities & population bases are much larger causing more heat islands.



Greenville/Spartanburg Area Detailed Climate Information

www.weather.gov
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If you take the 30 year data from 1930-1960 you have 123.6 inches for a 30 year average of 4.12 inches. If you take the 30 years from 1992 until now you have 121.5 inches for a 30 year average of 4.05 inches.

That's splitting hairs and suggests averages haven't fallen as much as one would think. The 60s thru 80s skewed the numbers up. But what is missing is the complete lack of big years. Even from 1930 to 1960 there were some very big years in there and that kept the averages up. Otherwise they would have been abysmal. The last 30 years have featured more consistent snowfall than the 30s thru the 50s but complete lack of double digit years. That has to be because we waste a lot of precip on rain changing to snow or the warm nose changing us to sleet on the backside probably because of a warmer climate. If we still have the 15-20 inch years every few years we'd be living in the golden ages of snow.
 
MichaelJ said:
Have to admit I don't read JB anymore so I am surprised we agree on this. Maybe I should go back and re-subscribe? ?
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A lot of what JB has said in recent weeks does make sense. Where he lost me is the other day is when he said he expected a cold pattern to set in the rest of the winter… that was 100% playing to his energy clients
 
SnowNiner said:
I agree about Miller As. I can't think of a time we've had a pure one in the last 10 years. At best they're always a CAD hybrid A/B. I've resigned myself to just appreciate a winter storm when we can get it, no matter the type. And there will always be sleet mixed in, one way or another. Fine by me, with the decent ones we always end up with a front end thump of snow, before the sleet mixes in. If it gets me out of work, sled day with the kids, its a win. Last year's B was fine, 2 inches snow, 2 inches sleet. Don't look close you can't tell the difference. Lol.
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Exactly. I got 7-8" on frontend FGEN driven snow before I switched over to sleet/ZR. That's just how winter storms go for us around here these days. I think at least the CAD regions of NC/SC/NEGA can score here at the end of the month, but unless it's some ULL driven stuff or FGEN driven stuff it's going to be sleet and ZR.
 
HurricaneSolomon said:
While I know it’s forbidden to look 14 days out it seems that at times colder air looks promising only to see it slowly disappear as we get closer to those dates. I know this is why the 5 day look ahead is better but as is always the case we shall see.


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For days now, ALL of the ensembles have advertised a pattern change beginning the last third of this month. The evolution to a +PNA and a progressively colder CONUS remains on schedule. Whether we can lock this in for a 10-20 period or not, and of course whether we can score a winter storm or two remains to be seen.

Winter is coming.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Can confirmView attachment 129867
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Me too. Guess I need to get out there and clean up that mess.

rebuild.png
 
KyloG said:
It sure has been a wet winter...California is nuts. SE has been well above normal too. Models saying it keeps coming....this ain't nina

View attachment 129869View attachment 129868
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It's a bigger question, but I wonder if anyone really knows what drives weather patterns. It was/is widely expected by many that Nina would be the predominant driver this season and that we would proceed generally along the Nina climo path. That is clearly not the case right now. There is so much we just don't know or fully understand around which forcing mechanism is predominant at which times. Anyway, glad to have the rain.
 
metwannabe said:
At that one location but those lows aren't too far off from what I posted and it's believable that some isolated locales away from Greensboro proper were a few degrees colder

edit: and 29 this morning at Greensboro, not yet depicted in the chart you share
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I live in a local away from Greensboro, and it's not been as cold as you and SD where showing. I only used GSO as a representation of the local area. Yesterday morning was the only night below freezing.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
For days now, ALL of the ensembles have advertised a pattern change beginning the last third of this month. The evolution to a +PNA and a progressively colder CONUS remains on schedule. Whether we can lock this in for a 10-20 period or not, and of course whether we can score a winter storm or two remains to be seen.

Winter is coming.
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Yep. Jan 20 or 21 is the due date: All 3 ensemble sets agree. That Pac ridge is a beaut on all of them.

500h_anom-mean.nh.png
 
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