ATLwxfan
Member
It’s wild…meanwhile Seattle will get locked in for 3 snowy weeks or Texas is tundra for 10 days.
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Pattern Jammin January 2023
- Thread starter Goose88
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It’s wild…meanwhile Seattle will get locked in for 3 snowy weeks or Texas is tundra for 10 days.
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SnowNiner
Member
It's got the split flow look out west, energy undercutting the ridge. Hope it's true and hangs around.
I don’t buy into staying for the rest of winter either, but I do think we should see a 10-14 window in which we could see a decent winter storm, and yes even in that it will still need right timing to happen as it always does here in the south.
But who has suggested that we would flip to a trough in the east, and then it stay for the rest of winter? No one on here has stated that
Unless we can miraculously find a way to support 50/50 low generation (not shown in the 'potential' pattern), we're probably looking at "stream separation" being the operative phrase.....as in, getting a shortwave to separate off the base of the longwave trough that is suppressing the storm track and providing cold air...and have that wave run into us or under us. I haven't looked at the ensemble members though at h5
In fairness, I believe he’s referring to JB’s tweet that was posted on here yesterday… a tweet that made a lot of sense until he said he expects it to hold the rest of the winter.
Why do we talk in absolutes?
All patterns r transient.
Some last longer than others but in my old mind,
I never remember a winter were it was wall to wall warm or cold on either coast.
Hence all patterns are transient.
Aleutian low FTW. Signs the pacific might relaxNothing about this screams transient to me ??this looks like a pattern change View attachment 129847
ATLwxfan
Member
Gonna be tough. Once the Pac jet relaxes it’ll be ridge city until (if) Nina leaves
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Yes please! I like. And the end does look interesting if it doesn't relax too quickly there. No way at this range to really gauge that true velocity I'm thinking.Nothing about this screams transient to me ??
Ridge for dayz. No signs of hope. 
Yes. Of course. I suspect most of us are referring to the cold & dry--warm up & rain, rinse repeat scenarios in the SE. It's the prevailing cycle in most of even the most best winters here. However when we can get about a week's worth of 'good' cold something eventually comes wet into the pattern unless hard suppression is afoot--like vodka cold.
The Niña is definitely weakening. While it looks as though we’re most likely going to go into a period that sees an extended SER and very mild temperatures across the Southeast, the process that gets us there should, like others have said, give us a window of opportunity to get something. It doesn’t have to be a long window either… for example everyone looks back at February 2014 and thinks of it as a great month of wall to wall cold, but in reality outside of a few days in the middle of the month that saw back to back storms, it was mostly quite mild.
Brent
Member
Nearly 70 degrees here on January 10th
I just can't help but wonder how we're gonna pay for this ? because we're going to
I just can't help but wonder how we're gonna pay for this ? because we're going to
Fountainguy97
Member
?
I will say, we have a hurdle, NA is flooded with mild pacific air, getting it out would indeed take time, and snow cover is very poor, what helps is we’re in peak climo, but vs any other time, that +PNA comes with a challenge of how conditions were before hand. Have to at least have it stick around for some legitimate cold to enter in, but it’s not a bad look. -4 anoms isn’t terrible in late jan
GEPS and EPS have looked a little better than the GEFS over the last few days, but the GEFS is catching up. Trend loop here of the last 14 runs of the GEFS for Jan 23. Western ridge running up the W Canada coastline at the end of the loop is ideal placement for cold air delivery
Looked like a banger
All we have to do is cut down a section of the mountains then boom. NW flow Now into the piedmont regions
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A start is a start.
Imo it's a step down into cold versus the arctic door flying open. Best we could hope for is initial front to cool us back to just above normal, 2nd front brings us BN, 3rd system delivers the frigid stuff.
Chances are we don't and the super cold stuff ends up in the plains and western SE as we get into Feb. If I lived in LA, MS, AL, TN or the classic wedge regions of the upstate, NEGA, and western NC I'd be pumped about where this pattern is going. For us I like it but we are a little more touchy imo
I mean that’s already some pretty cold air in northern NA by day 8 lol
This 100%!!! The fact is that we typically don’t score when we have the type of cold we had around Christmas. Every now and then we’ll get lucky with a small wave on the front side or backside of a cold push like that, but typically in the western/central Carolinas and N GA you want to see just a typical mid to late January cold spell
MichaelJ
Member
I agree with SD, it will be a gradual step down mode and the finale will be very cold. After that around Feb 5-10th the rubber band snaps and our old friend the SER makes a grand entrance for a while. I believe we have a good chance of seeing some short cold period in March and a very cool April
iGRXY
Member
to me we have about a 7-10 day timeframe here. Maybe 14 if we can get lucky with the mechanics. I think we have a good chance to score here, especially along and west of the Mississippi and the CAD regions, but I fear specifically for us in the western Carolina’s that it will be ice. Miller A’s just don’t happen anymore. We almost always rely on overrunning or Miller B’s and that tends to be ice or luckily some front end FGEN driven stuff. Or getting an ULL to track perfectly for us for snow. Who knows, I have faith we will get something, just worried it’s going to come in the form of sleet and ZR.
I think it’s going to be very interesting to see what happens further on late in February and into March. I’m certainly convinced that we’ll see at least a couple weeks of very warm weather from the 5th-10th or so and on, possibly every bit as warm as February 2018. However, that year as the Niña was dying, March got quite chilly and there were several close calls for snow in the Carolinas…. I think KCLT recorded a trace of snow on 3 or 4 different days that March.
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Continued disagreement with the operational and its ensemble (per usual). Good feeling over the next couple of days we will see a shift on the operational to some fantasy stuff showing up
You can see on the gefs mean, when the TPV gets accessed and moves south, the colder air really builds in Canada
NCHighCountryWX
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Why Charlotte's Snow Days Are Probably Gone - Charlotte Magazine
It used to fall here at least a few times a year. ------------- explains why that's likely over
www.charlottemagazine.com
Charlotte had like 4 snow days in jan 2022 lolWhy Charlotte's Snow Days Are Probably Gone - Charlotte Magazine
It used to fall here at least a few times a year. ------------- explains why that's likely over
Yeah… I don’t really know how he can speak in absolute about that when a year ago at this time there was 3 straight weekends with at least an inch of snow. As rough as this snow drought has been the last few years, it’s nothing compared to how bad the early to mid 90s were
SnowNiner
Member
I agree about Miller As. I can't think of a time we've had a pure one in the last 10 years. At best they're always a CAD hybrid A/B. I've resigned myself to just appreciate a winter storm when we can get it, no matter the type. And there will always be sleet mixed in, one way or another. Fine by me, with the decent ones we always end up with a front end thump of snow, before the sleet mixes in. If it gets me out of work, sled day with the kids, its a win. Last year's B was fine, 2 inches snow, 2 inches sleet. Don't look close you can't tell the difference. Lol.
? GSP set a record daily snowfall just last year and suddenly it’s never going to snow again in Charlotte. This stuff is so tiresome
We’ve had some Miller A storms in the last few years, but they haven’t worked out in a way that we traditionally think of a Miller A working out for the Piedmont. If you look at the early January 2018 coastal storm, the airmass back this way was just too dominated by Arctic air to allow for any moisture. January 2017 was just too amped for a lot of us and that warm nose killed off what could have been a complete dumping for the NC southern Piedmont and SC upstate… this is IMO is why Miller A’s might be problematic for us while SSTs off the southeast coast remain above average during the winter months.
JHS
Member
We are LONG overdue for a major icestorm in the CAD regions of GA and the Carolinas. Speaking of frigid air, if we got a major ice event on the back end of one of those air masses we could really be in trouble unless we got sleet. ZR with 20-25 temps and frozen ground would cripple us. All of it would accumulate and roads would be sheets of ice.