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Pattern Dazzling December

ILMRoss said:
i'll be staying true to my username and spending the 23rd-30thish in wilmington so it's 1989 or 2010 or bust for me, which makes me think yeah richmond is going to get slapped
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Need a house sitter while your gone? I mean only if it's still showing 2'
 
metwannabe said:
Only problem I have with this from the GFS is it's also based on a significant snow/ice pack which obviously affects those temps. Still gonna be cold but probably not that cold if there isn't said snow/ice on the ground
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Likely right there. I still look for Christmas Eve to be the coldest day of all of them with snow or not on the ground. That looks like the maximum push of cold air.
 
Tried to do my best yesterday conveying how climo more than likely doesn’t allow an immediate up the east coast widespread snowstorm. I hope things trend back as we get closer but that’s just not what climatology tells us happens this month. That then opens the door though to the potential behind this storm. I think once you see more GEFS members moving away from storm 1 you will see them pop on storm 2. How long will this take? Your guess is as good as mine but over the next couple days is a good bet.
 
Quietly the below is playing a factor too. Although it shows a neutral average now, many of these solutions are highly positive or negative. Was hoping for better and I think the models are picking up on that a bit. Looking through the individual GEFS members you can really tell the difference on the backend.
 

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NickyBGuarantee said:
Tried to do my best yesterday conveying how climo more than likely doesn’t allow an immediate up the east coast widespread snowstorm. I hope things trend back as we get closer but that’s just not what climatology tells us happens this month. That then opens the door though to the potential behind this storm. I think once you see more GEFS members moving away from storm 1 you will see them pop on storm 2. How long will this take? Your guess is as good as mine but over the next couple days is a good bet.
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Yeah, that cold push is more or less a sea change right now and until the models fully get a handle on it (Which they are-Centering on the cutter idea it seems) the bouncy stuff will take some time to sort. Once that is more certain you will see a better look at the later weekend storm potential. It's there imho just not sure how much and where exactly.
 
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dsaur said:
Lol, it would be 33, but if a big dogs spits out of this pattern it will be down to Perry probably. A storm like the gfs is showing will get a lot of us usually left out. In fact, the depictions look like a good hammering of sleet, like the old days, with snow too. It changes all over run to run, but the storm is still there, and the pattern is holding well...so it could happen. Be of good cheer at Xmas, lol. Just don't want a strong storm as the heat generator will for sure give us the cold rain. It's a dance at the edges when zr/ip/ and sn are looking to join up. I hate freezing rain, but love sleet, and I'm often on the dividing line between hell and heaven...but I've seen some really good ip/sn storms down here, but some bad zr storms too. When the woods are crashing down on you, 33 looks really good. Of course, 35 miles can make all the difference, so we need some constantly reinforced cold pushing deep.
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This probably suppose to be in the Whamby section, but I will add my two cents. That Jan. 2011 storm was actually a storm I enjoyed with Freezing rain. It started off as snow (I was at Walmart when the snow started) switch to sleet, by morning it was freezing rain. Later on that day, I think an ULL came through the area and we got additional snow. I saw this to say, while I enjoyed that freezing rain event, I do not like them. So, I will take 33 and rain and suck it up them having a freezing rain event. Sleet is my friend and wouldn't mind it if it doesn't snow.
 
Normally, I have one foot out the door when models are showing long range great arctic cold periods and 7 day snowstorms. It makes sense to be skeptical of those things, since like was pointed out earlier, the cold always seems to back off as we head closer and the storm track always seems to shift west and north. That's pretty typical to see, so it's understandable and reasonable to not get too excited about historic patterns showing up.

That said, we have a lot of anomalous blocking showing up, which, if real, makes depictions of anomalous patterns somewhat more believable. Now I'm not going to stand ten toes down in the sand on historic stretches of cold and blizzards. But given the support in the guidance and apparent configuration of teleconnections, an unusually cold and stormy pattern is more likely to be real than normal, IMO. When you couple that with the fact that we usually can't buy a fast start to winter, it's already been plenty cold, and Christmas is just around the corner, we have some exciting times ahead.

Even if it doesn't work out like we all hope, at least we're not waiting until late January to get the party started this year.
 
DadOfJax said:
48 hours ago we had the Global Ensembles showing us the glory, with the Ops showing less than favorable outputs. Naysayers were buying the Ops. Now the script it flipped, and naysayers hugging the Ensembles….can’t make this stuff up. We are all still looking very good for the Christmas timeframe. Good Friday vibes!!
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Only good looking global for the first storm is the OP GFS blud ? there’s not much support outside of that, other then low means
 
Well well, such a lively debate in here for Sys 1 vs Sys 2. I see loads of potential with Sys 2, but it has to hit right with the northern stream dropping down. The comparison to Jan 2011 makes some sense with respect to the Arctic front clearing, then the storm moving in a couple days later. The difference is that was a cutoff low in the SW that slid west to east into the cold air over the Deep South, a setup that is less risky in terms of precip generation. At any rate, I think the cold plunge will be good behind the first storm. Sure, the next storm wave diving down could miss, but it could also wait a day too late and go bonkers and we warm ahead of it. I like the in-between idea though where we get a winter storm running into the cold high to the north and northwest. Could be more snow than ice OR more ice than snow

Here is the good high pressure setup with waviness in the NE Gulf to SE Coast on the GEFS and EPS

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LONG time lurker, hardly a poster here. Remember these models are going to be all over the place from run to run. We can't live and die with every run this far out. Let's get into next week before we throw the baby out with the bath water. We have a great pattern still and alot to be excited about. Let's get into Tues and see what trends are setting up before we jump off the ledge or scream from the mountain top.
 
ICON looks cold and dry... we don't want to see the first vortex wrap up that tight,, drop that far south, and stall that much imo. Especially important for it to propagate East more than the Icon is showing.

Luckily, it's probably over done. I seriously doubt we actually wind up getting -20C to -25C 850 temps and that's probably a good thing for 2nd storm chances.
 
rburrel2 said:
ICON looks cold and dry... we don't want to see the first vortex wrap up that tight,, drop that far south, and stall that much imo. Especially important for it to propagate East more than the Icon is showing.

Luckily, it's probably over done. I seriously doubt we actually wind up getting -20C to -25C 850 temps and that's probably a good thing for 2nd storm chances.
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Agree, yeah been saying that we don’t want the blue norther into TX. Want the cold moving west to east into the Ohio Valley
 
Snippet from James Spann but what he said towards the end was definitely uncaused for lol

NEXT WEEK: Another wave has potential to bring some light rain to the state Monday night and Tuesday, mainly over the southern counties. Wednesday looks dry… highs will be in the upper 40s and low 50s during the first half of the week.

An Arctic front will bring potential for a little light rain to North Alabama Thursday afternoon, and as cold air rushes into the state, a few snow flurries are possible Thursday night. But, for now, this doesn’t look a setup for any accumulating snow. The big story is the coldest air so far this season that will rush into the state Friday.

ARCTIC BLAST: Here are few notes on the Christmas cold wave…

*Temperatures will likely remain below freezing across North Alabama all day Friday and Saturday (December 23-24). Temperatures should rise into the mid to upper 30s by Christmas (Sunday December 24).

*Early morning lows will be mostly in the teens Friday and Saturday morning (December 23-24), but colder spots over North Alabama could dip into the single digits.

*The wind chill index Friday (December 23) will be below zero at times over North Alabama thanks to a brisk north wind.

*The American global model (the GFS) occasionally has hinted at a chance of snow on Christmas Day across parts of Alabama, but they idea has little support for now from the reliable European model (the ECMWF), or ensembles. For now we are forecasting a a cold, dry Christmas, but understand that could change since December 25 is 9 days away. You will see the deterministic GFS snow maps plastered all over social media from those needing shares and followers, but don’t be suckered into it.
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