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Pattern Dazzling December

Webberweather53 said:
The entire hemispheric pattern retrogresses on most NWP during the 2nd week of December, in conjunction w/ the retrograding -NAO. The SE ridge slides westward towards the Rockies as we approach Dec 14-15th ish, suggestive that +PNA may eventually be in order. I think by around then we should have some decent snow coverage to our north from preceding storms to work with. Pretty typical evolution here for an evolving Scandinavian >> -NAO blocking ridge.

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Even if we never see a true +PNA, don’t you think the blocking up north can still get the job done? It’s been so long since we’ve seen that type of a -NAO with plenty of cold air available in Canada to work with
 
griteater said:
Ha, that's what happens when the flow gets blocked....things start backing up and causing trouble, lol. GFS started out slow, but ended with a bang

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Snow in Florida with that
 
griteater said:
12z Euro Ensemble member cluster analysis for days 11 to 15. Not a ton of difference though the weakest cluster on the far right has more ridging along the east coast and the top cluster on the far left is tucking low pressure underneath the block and rolling it through the Great Lakes at Day 11 and into the Northeast at Day 15 with a stronger low pressure. This would be an ideal progression as getting low pressure to strengthen and slow down as it moves into the Northeast and off the Northeast coast would set the stage for the next waves in the flow arriving from the west to slow down, head south, and deepen the eastern trough, a key component to driving colder air and the storm track farther south

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We need a few cutters to set the table and lay down the snowpack up here! A few clippers as well!
 
justinweather.com

Snow Cover Now At 56 Year High In The Northern Hemisphere - Just In Weather

November 28 2022 Does it even seem possible that our planet may have the most snow cover to date on modern record? We will be looking at the Northern Hemisphere as a whole and areas with any snow cover. So that epic Lake Effect Snow Storm last week was impressive, but only covers about 1% […]
justinweather.com justinweather.com

Interesting article here. Could possibly have some implications going foward for us if we're able to get some of that blocking to push cold air our direction, we might be able to get some of it without too much modification. In other words, good snow buildup so far. ?
 
I beleive by this weekend,possible late week Fri into Sat, we will be tracking our first legit threat. We'll see.
Right now just glad to see a very favorable pattern conducive to producing showing up continually. Seems window of opportunity starts to open up mid to late next week.
 

Is this the year we finally break the streak of above average December's? Maybe. But even if the pattern changes by mid month can we erase the warmth of the 1st half? That's seems to be our problem getting below average temps. We can have 20 below average days but the 10 above average cancel it out.
 
It is going to be humorous watching the models and how they react to the strong blocking. GFS run yesterday had the flow literally moving east to west. Todays run has the cold air actually retrograding north instead of south to get around the block.
 
Really nice to see a potential second half December pattern that's not a torch on the horizon. However right now I'm leaning toward the "wish we had a PNA" camp. The -NAO just doesn't seem to get us very cold per model output. Coldest air is still out west. That and thinking about 2021 when we had a decent -NAO but we only managed cold rain after cold rain because it just couldn't get quite cold enough. Maybe this time is different, cold in Canada is better, block is real deal this time, we can CAD better etc....but I'm not really sold until the modeled -NAO can show me some solid cold in the SE with the TPV is Maine. Lol.

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SnowNiner said:
Really nice to see a potential second half December pattern that's not a torch on the horizon. However right now I'm leaning toward the "wish we had a PNA" camp. The -NAO just doesn't seem to get us very cold per model output. Coldest air is still out west. That and thinking about 2021 when we had a decent -NAO but we only managed cold rain after cold rain because it just couldn't get quite cold enough. Maybe this time is different, cold in Canada is better, block is real deal this time, we can CAD better etc....but I'm not really sold until the modeled -NAO can show me some solid cold in the SE with the TPV is Maine. Lol.

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Couldn’t agree more. I’ve seen some posts about the PNA trying to get to neutral which would be great. But it’s definitely going to be a battle until then.


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Merry Christmas from the 06z CFS. Should be taken with a grain of salt but I’m holding firm on my idea of a pattern change around December 20th. The models have been trying to rush the cold air.
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I watch CFS daily for past week plus. Its been consistent. And yes your probably better off studying the wooly worm and farmers almanac. But if it changes its tune, its usualky a red flag. Fortunately it keeps beating sane drum.

Also the GFS will change up an down 4x a day LR. Block or no Block. So never get to hyped or depressed off of the pics it paints.

All that said. Record Negative NAO possible. But if there is a way to screw it up, we will find it guranteed lol. Gonna be fun watching this evolve and seeing how it impacts our local wx good bad indifferent.
 
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