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Pattern May Thread

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 101838
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
138 PM CDT Tue May 10 2022

...New Long Term...

Late this weekend and early next week, a stout ridge will develop
over the SW CONUS and northern Mexico. This pattern usually lends
to well above normal warmth for North and Central Texas and next
week should be no different. Just about all of the global ensemble
contextual tools we have are pointing toward temperatures ramping
up in the 6-12 day range. The ECMWF Shift of Tails index indicates
that at least 10% of the ECMWF ensemble members exceed the climo
extreme for afternoon high temperature Thursday of this week
through Tuesday of next week. Extending beyond that, the NAEFS
and ECMWF mean guidance`s low level temperatures are in the 97th
percentile for this time of the year. Moreover, the NBM`s
probabilistic guidance is also indicating well above normal warmth
with 100F at DFW looking more likely than not (up to 51% compared
to 46% yesterday) in the mid to late parts of next week. It is
worth noting that all of these data are derived from global
ensembles, which often lack the vertical and horizontal resolution
to resolve convective-influenced boundaries. If outflows from
Friday`s storms were able to develop additional storms through the
weekend, it would mean temperatures remaining more regulated, but
still in the low-mid 90s.
 
Trending to some solid heat for May standards around day 7-14, EPS mean highs are right at 90F around CLT for a few days now, big warming trend on it the last day FB3E5616-0DBD-40EE-A34F-9C7E34880573.gifA61D5D58-9C12-4E9A-AE41-BCF5CFF620A8.pngD57024BD-07B8-4235-B6FD-82273E5E494F.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
EPS mean of 91 with several members in the mid/upper 90s ? View attachment 118319
Click to expand...
Yeah, I think any cool weather is pretty much done; just that time of year. I'll be counting down to met Fall by the end of the month. Heck, even upper 70s with full sun today is too hot for me. On to summer...


Well... actually not too bad after the 19th, here's a decent little front... long ways off

1652215289067.png
 
Last edited:
Today's high at DFW was 92*F.

The fact that we're also getting this warm each day despite recurring morning stratus and the high dewpoints is also impressive.
 
Edited to add that this worry is not based on anything other than the fact that I am almost two weeks from the last rain and not seeing anything promising over the next 7 days.
 
JTR said:
Edited to add that this worry is not based on anything other than the fact that I am almost two weeks from the last rain and not seeing anything promising over the next 7 days.
Click to expand...
Just curious… what’s your location? A lot of us east of the Mississippi have had some decent rainfall in the last week
 
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