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Severe 3/30-4/2 Severe Weather

One thought that has gone through my head this morning: Could this event today/tonight be comparable to the morning QLCS that we saw on April 27, 2011 across Mississippi and Alabama? I know we probably won't see the same type of tornadoes embedded in today's QLCS as there were on that morning, but it seems to be potentially an event that falls into the same category of high-impact destructive wind event with embedded tornadoes within the QLCS. Granted, there was probably greater instability on the morning of 4/27/11 than there will be today/tonight.
 
Huntsville AFD update this morning.

NEAR TERM.
. (Rest of Today)
Issued at 1010 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022
Little changes to the overall forecast and hazards expected today and tonight. Surface analysis right now depicts our region in the warm sector with the warm front well north and east of our CWA. Further
west, the cold front is sliding through AR and the TX/LA border with a line of strong/severe storms just out ahead. Hi res CAM guidance has noted a slight weakening trend in the wind field at the moment, which is evident of the slight decrease in magnitude with the squall line. However this will only be temporary as the S/SE wind field is
expected to strengthening later today as the pressure gradient rapidly contracts. Combined with deep layer mixing of the boundary layer for most of the day, we will tap into 65+kt winds at the 850 ha level. As such, will maintain the current High Wind warning in the western zones and Wind Advisory further east. No update to the timing or magnitude of the storms later this afternoon/tonight. Latest guidance continues to show the line approaching NW AL -5-8pm and exiting our CWA after midnight. Main risk for today will be with damaging wind gusts (potentially high end severe thunderstorm winds) and embedded tornadoes within the QLCS. For the severe thunderstorm potential, please be aware that these
winds have the potential to reach tornadic strength (65+mph) outside of any tornado hazard. It's worth mentioning that, although a low chance, there is the potential for some discrete supercelis ahead of the main line IF we can out preform the forecast dewpoints and the timing phases with the potential for max afternoon instability. Again, not very confident in that occurring in our area at the moment. otherwise, forecast is on track.
 
Could be a supercell or 2 with a low tor threat along the NC/SC border later as the wedge boundary retreats north. Lots of 3CAPE/tons of low level streamwise vorticity and sfc vorticity along with moisture pooling, interesting little setup 0F461E88-294F-4399-948F-B02ED3C8BF7F.png95B70BD2-F47E-4F6C-B1C9-1B8C1644D99C.png
 
74/51 in Madison, AL, sharp gradient as dewpoints are around 60 along the state line in northwest AL.

Sun is out in some areas too
1648658838438.png
 
HSVweather said:
74/51 in Madison, AL, sharp gradient as dewpoints are around 60 along the state line in northwest AL.

Sun is out in some areas too
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Sun here will actually hurt instability. With this much mixing, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if dewpoints bust low.
 
Last time I checked my DP 46 but now the spectrum guy just pulled my cable out of the pole ?? Hard to work with no internet. Sigh
 
Arcc said:
Sun here will actually hurt instability. With this much mixing, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if dewpoints bust low.
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That’s what I was wondering earlier when I saw the dewpoints dropping this morning. It wouldn’t hurt my feelings lol. I like to track the severe weather but don’t want any damage and other potential impacts that come with it.
 
HSVweather said:
That’s what I was wondering earlier when I saw the dewpoints dropping this morning. It wouldn’t hurt my feelings lol. I like to track the severe weather but don’t want any damage and other potential impacts that come with it.
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I’m actively rooting against any storms. I do not want the roof to blow off the barn I’ve just put $600 of brand new tin on.
 
EMTime said:
A dumb question, but with the severe winds forecast, should that not be a pds watch?
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I may be wrong but only seen PDS tornado watches and never a PDS severe thunderstorm watch. The tornado threat is not an upper end high threat although still significant in the hatched tornado area on SPC latest day 1 outlook.
 
I’m trying to multitask but I did find this older paper, apparently there is a PDS severe thunderstorm watch.

“When the threat for damage caused by severe convection is unusually high, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) enhances the wording of its convective watch product with the following statement:
THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION
Such watches are known as “PDS” watches. PDS tornado (TOR) watches are issued when the forecaster has high confidence that multiple strong (F2-F3 on the Fujita Scale) or violent tornadoes (F4-F5 on the Fujita Scale) will occur in the watch area, while PDS severe thunderstorm (SEV) watches are issued when there is a threat of a high end “derecho” (e.g. Johns and Hirt 1987, Coniglio et al. 2004) with widespread wind damage.”

 
It’s been noted in the discussions that the instability and higher dew points were going to reside in a narrow corridor ahead of the storms with the possibility that the line moves so fast around north Alabama that it outpaces it. This isn’t going to be a time where we have a blanket of high dew points across the whole area.
 
I just ran a 50 Frame loop on Radar Scope and you can tell the line of storms is slowing some but also expanding. :oops:
 
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