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Severe 3/30-4/2 Severe Weather

Tornado potential for central and north Alabama is nothing to scoff at, I'm afraid you may see a similar scenario but a little less coverage as the one from last event that happened over Mississippi with all the spin ups. Id take the severe thunderstorm warnings as tornado warning because your going to have no lead time with any tornadoes tommorow lol.
 
Looking at the 12z guidance so far there are 2 low end threats/windows for nc. The first is with the residual mcs/ofb that will be approaching US1 by 18z and 95 20/21z. I wouldn't be surprised to see a rotating cell or 2 with this and maybe a tornado. The second is around 21z-3z along the cold front itself in the mountains and Northern piedmont. Seems like this may be more of a linear threat with a non zero chance of a tor especially if the sun gets out behind the initial band.
 
Only one I can truly remeber is 2012 cause I was outside in it lol. There's been a few here and there but for north and central Alabama have had some since 2012 but minor and usually skirts the state

If you are ever in the direct path of one of these storm, you never forget them. This one caused near hurricane-type damage in our community.

 
Wonder what the holdback is, for the high risk outlook area over north Mississippi and north Alabama. Pretty obvious that the most significant portion will be in that area.
 
Chances of it going up to 60% or sig in some areas? Wind that is.
It could in the new day 1 tonight if SPC is confident. It would meet the criteria in this link still in moderate.
 
That Alabama state line area could see a high risk upgrade for wind damage, that would be the most likely. It's been a longggggg while since we've seen a sizeable derecho. Last one I remeber was summer of 2012 I think?? But wasn't even that strong. I vaguely remeber something from around 2017 I think as well
I'm sure there have been quite a few derecho events in the Deep South since 2001 but for me personally the February 16, 2001 derecho that swept across Central Alabama stands out. I was an insurance adjuster in B'ham at the time and we got deluged with wind damage claims from that event. Wind gusts approached 90 mph in the B'ham area as the squall line bowed out thru the area uprooting and downing huge trees onto cars and homes in the B'ham area. That line took less than 3 hours to cross the entire width of Alabama.
 
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