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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

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And the cold keeps coming. GFS has been doing well so far this season, better than the last few years.
 
GaWx said:
There are no fewer than 4 Arctic highs coming down deep into the US this run. That's my idea of a great run.
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Yep! Absolutely breathtaking especially considering the last several Decembers.


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GaWx said:
There are no fewer than 4 Arctic highs coming down deep into the US this run. That's my idea of a great run.
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Right on, the overall cold pattern is what we need. Very awesome, as long as we can keep the cold around eventually the storms will come. The ball game is just started
 
the cold also prepares the ground for snow to stick, and this time of year often something called the "pineapple express" starts sending moisture into the atmosphere flowing across the se....ground cold could make that an over running event......most of the players needed for snow in the se appear to be gathering ready to step onto the field.
 
Only problem with such an exceptional run is that when it goes back to just a great run, people will probably be disappointed!

Still, it is really, and The Rock means REALLY great to see such a cold pattern showing up so early in the season, especially given the multitude of warm winter forecasts out there. It will be nice not to have to wait till the second half of winter to chase the cold for a change...assuming this ends up verifying. :)
 
As a reminder; It is early in the season and we are seeing modeling showing something we haven't seen in many years. It's early. I would not focus on one specific threat, as the setup will allow many chances at potential events throughout the period.

Personally, for the deep South, I'd like to see this setup towards the end of December, through February, but those in the upper Southeast can score many times easily at this time of the year, even.
 
pcbjr said:
February may be a stretch this year, but don't write off all of January just yet ... :rolleyes:
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oh don't get me wrong in thinking it's wasted too early in the season. The cold advertised gets you in the game for snow any time of the year. I just would be curious to see what this pattern would look like in mid January with a good snow pack in the middle of winter.
 
Chattownsnow said:
oh don't get me wrong in thinking it's wasted too early in the season. The cold advertised gets you in the game for snow any time of the year. I just would be curious to see what this pattern would look like in mid January with a good snow pack in the middle of winter.
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Single digits and teens close to the FL. panhandle, and probably bad news in regards to ice storms for our coastal and deep deep south friends. Other than that, it'd be glorious during the relaxation periods where the cold air is still around/in place but little sliders eject through. Overruning galore.
 
There will most likely not be a system during the first push of Arctic air. The trough is way too deep, the trough needs to relax some, which it's looking likely that it will. Before the next push of Arctic air, that's when a storm system could come about days 8-12, and maybe another chance at another storm system afterwords. The southern branch is going to be more active because of the polar low displacement. There could be system after system before each push of Arctic air. Temps moderate, system, Arctic cold push, repeat. This pattern could last the entire month of December, but that's going out on a stretch. Some system's may bring frozen precipitation for some or most, or none at all. But the chances are greater at receiving frozen precip. with each system in general during the upcoming most likely colder pattern that will occur.
 
WeatherWatch said:
There will most likely not be a system during the first push of Arctic air. The trough is way too deep, the trough needs to relax some, which it's looking likely that it will. Before the next push of Arctic air, that's when a storm system could come about days 8-12, and maybe another chance at another storm system afterwords. The southern branch is going to be more active because of the polar low displacement. There could be system after system before each push of Arctic air. Temps moderate, system, Arctic cold push, repeat. This pattern could last the entire month of December, but that's going out on a stretch. Some system's may bring frozen precipitation for some or most, or none at all. But the chances are greater at receiving frozen precip. with each system in general during the upcoming most likely colder pattern that will occur.
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Oh, there will be a system, just likely not for us. This has the hallmark look for a good system for the MID-ATL - NE as the first push comes through and low pressure likely develops off the coast.

I get where you're coming from in regards to the SE though.
 
Shawn said:
Oh, there will be a system, just likely not for us. This has the hallmark look for a good system for the MID-ATL - NE as the first push comes through and low pressure likely develops off the coast.

I get where you're coming from in regards to the SE though.
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I’m more curious as to what the 11-13 day time range may hold and as you have stated the latter part of December would be more favorable for most if we hold the cold.


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Move this to Banter or delete if appropriate, but this really should be said ...
Larry (GaWx) has been on top of this for days and days, if not well more than a week. "This" being a pattern we have not seen in a long time. Larry lives in a place that hardly gets frozen precip. I for one am rooting for enough cold and suppression to get him some accumulation way down in SAV sometime this year. He really deserves it ... and he deserves all our thanks (not to exclude a bunch of other great posters who also deserve a ton of thanks, but Larry, unlike so many others, has so little skin in the game, yet he keeps us all up to date, which is worth a million kudos).
Thanks, Larry!
 
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Shawn said:
Oh, there will be a system, just likely not for us. This has the hallmark look for a good system for the MID-ATL - NE as the first push comes through and low pressure likely develops off the coast.

I get where you're coming from in regards to the SE though.
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Yes, there may very well be a system for the Mid-Atlantic/NE US regions, but I have my doubts on that. Because, the first Arctic blast will "pack a punch" and not allow time for a system to affect the Mid-Atlantic/NE regions. If any late bloomer, it maybe too late to affect anyone.
 
pcbjr said:
Move this to Banter or delete if appropriate, but this really should be said ...
Larry has been on top of this for days and days, if not well more than a week. "This" being a pattern we have not seen in a long time. Larry lives in a place that hardly gets frozen precip. I for one am rooting for enough cold and suppression to get him some accumulation way down in SAV sometime this year. He really deserves it ... and he deserves all our thanks (not to exclude a bunch of other great posters who also deserve a ton of thanks, but Larry, unlike so many others, has so little skin in the game, yet he keeps us all up to date, which is worth a million kudos).
Thanks, Larry!
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Thanks, Phil!! I don't need folks to actually say "thanks" as I can tell they're appreciative of many posts based on their likes. I'm just one of many posters who contribute. I mainly just want it cool to cold for great walking and I'll be content. Any wintry precip. would just be a huge bonus! Keep in mind that I'm always hopeful even with small chances. Being hopeful is enough to make it enjoyable to follow. Plus we can all always dream. Plus it is fun to see others here get a storm. You do a whole bunch yourself including numerous posts (many more than me) and of course helping ForsythSnow with the wiki and you have even less skin in the game. So hopefully you'll get your near miracle. So, you deserve plenty of kudos.

By the way, didn't Shawn recently post something about hopes for Chris, Tony, and us getting something? That was nice. Also, El Kabong is pretty far south and then that poster from Valdosta area is even further south.

Edit: Also, Accu is rather far south in AL.

This may need to be moved to banter

*Edited
 
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GaWx said:
Thanks, Phil!! I don't need folks to actually say "thanks" as I can tell they're appreciative of many posts based on their likes. I'm just one of many posters who contribute. I mainly just want it cool to cold for great walking and I'll be content. Any wintry precip. would just be a huge bonus! Keep in mind that I'm always hopeful even with small chances. Being hopeful is enough to make it enjoyable to follow. Plus we can all always dream. Plus it is fun to see others here get a storm. You do a whole bunch yourself including numerous posts (many more than me) and of course helping ForsythSnow with the wiki and you have even less skin in the game. So hopefully you'll get your near miracle. So, you deserve plenty of kudos.

By the way, didn't Shawn recently post something about hopes for Chris, Tony, and us getting something? That was nice. Also, El Kabong is pretty far south and then that poster from Valdosta area is even further south.

This may need to be moved to banter

*Edited
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I think this once we will let you slide... :p
 
Let's hope the next model runs are as exciting as the Happy Hour GFS. I feel a little tipsy after watching that run come out...kind of like the drunk character in my avatar, Happy Marsden, lol! His character on SCTV hosted a kid's show in a bar and the show was called "Happy Hour" lol. OMG, that was unreal. As Rain Cold said, runs like that set us up for disappointments on later runs.

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Rain Cold said:
Only problem with such an exceptional run is that when it goes back to just a great run, people will probably be disappointed!

Still, it is really, and The Rock means REALLY great to see such a cold pattern showing up so early in the season, especially given the multitude of warm winter forecasts out there. It will be nice not to have to wait till the second half of winter to chase the cold for a change...assuming this ends up verifying. :)
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This is a wonderful day already and RC making an appearance, makes it even better! I'm thinking this cold spell has legs and I would believe tonight we see a blockbuster run for cold on 0z Euro! Good to see some model agreement!
 
metwannabe said:
GEFS.... talk about sustained cold and it continues past this but file was too big to upload
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It almost seems endless until the ridge breaks down out west. If we can get a massive ridge over the Pacific NW for that long and we don't get a storm I wouldn't know what went wrong.
 
ForsythSnow said:
It almost seems endless until the ridge breaks down out west. If we can get a massive ridge over the Pacific NW for that long and we don't get a storm I wouldn't know what went wrong.
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Maybe Santa will bring that ridge back ...
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Edit: Counting on my fingers, the time could work ...
 
Given the crappy Decembers of late this pattern change coming up is a win!


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