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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

Cary_Snow95 said:
While every run will differ I don't think anyone can be upset with the setup on the 12z Euro
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I don't like the run's changes. It no longer has the beautiful persistent tall western NA ridge. It really gets flattened. Also, the trough axis is too far east for my liking. Not that this is a surprise of course. I'd much rather the 12Z GFS be closer to being right as well as some earlier Euro runs.
 
GaWx said:
I don't like the run's changes. It no longer has the beautiful persistent tall western NA ridge. It really gets flattened. Also, the trough axis is too far east for my liking. Not that this is a surprise of course. I'd much rather the 12Z GFS be closer to being right as well as some earlier Euro runs.
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The one good thing about this run (as I mentioned earlier this morning) is the stronger Aleutian Low is aiding in lighting up the subtropical jet... Nice disturbance over the NE Pacific driving deep, rich Pacific moisture into the desert southwest.
ecmwf_uvz200_epac_36.png
 
The western ridge is still there it's just weaker and looks be strengthening at day 10. Of course we are gonna see didn't solutions on OP runs from run to run that's why it's important to look at ensembles . We are not gonna get the same look over and over every OP run.

Stay the course ....
 
gem_asnow_us_34.png
Oh yeah, heres the CMC
 
I was thinking that, what's the chance of most of the moisture transitioning over to a heavy wet snow, instead of a narrow band of snow on the back edge of the moisture? Since the cold plunge will likely progress south and southeastward rapidly, wouldn't the rapid transition create an unstable air mass enough to cause wet snow with thunder that would be associated with the line of moisture?
 
I don't understand the slight negativity on the Euro and it's just one op run!? We would have went through 2-3 pairs of busted pants last year, with that run of the Euro. All things still look great and let's see what the ensembles say! Keep ya head up!
 
Tarheel1 said:
I don't understand the slight negativity on the Euro and it's just one op run!? We would have went through 2-3 pairs of busted pants last year, with that run of the Euro. All things still look great and let's see what the ensembles say! Keep ya head up!
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The 12Z EPS also late in the 6-10 doesn't have as tall of a western ridge and the trough axis is further east vs the 0Z EPS (not as cold and drier).
 
Still 7-8 days before things even get started , will be lots o variability in the runs, because models havn't seen an epic pattern like this in years. Sir Top-em hat has taught us, patience is a virtue!
 
Watch the wildlife over the next 7 days... They are already becoming very active. The squirrels are showing more signs of offense than Tennessee football has all year. Models won't handle anything well outside 158 hours. Regardless the Cold is coming and once the Cold is established, the rest will play itself out.
 
Well the good thing is we still have more model runs every 6-12 hrs


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The ridge looks fine to me . It's still there, not as tall as others have mentioned early on but again the general idea is the same
 
Storm5 said:
The ridge looks fine to me . It's still there, not as tall as others have mentioned early on but again the general idea is the same
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Maybe this run just means that the start of the best of this new pattern will be later in the month, which per climo we know is better for wintry possibilities. How about that for being positive, Mack?
 
navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_30.png
Forgot to post this earlier, but the NAVGEM is a close call.
 
Western ridge at day 5 looking better on the Happy Hour GFS than the 12Z Euro and even a little better than most recent gfs runs imo. This is the coldest of the last 4 GFS runs at least for the SE and is colder than the 12Z Euro.So, looking nice so far! I love tall ridges in western N.A. I admit it. They have a certain unique beauty.
But will this run be tossed since it is 18Z?
 
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GaWx said:
Western ridge at day 5 looking better on the Happy Hour GFS than the 12Z Euro and even a little better than most recent gfs runs imo. This is the coldest of the last 4 GFS runs at least for the SE and is colder than the 12Z Euro.So, looking nice so far! I love tall ridges in western N.A. I admit it. They have a certain unique beauty.
But will this run be tossed since it is 18Z?
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Yeah at 156 the 18z is has a significantly taller western ridge..
12z

gfs_z500a_namer_28.png

18z
gfs_z500a_namer_27.png
 
GaWx said:
^ Also, look at that incredibly strong -NAO, the strongest of at least the last 4 GFS runs and stronger than the last 2 Euro runs at least!
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Larry,
I'll probably get bumped on this - but thanks for the updates! Work is crazy and getting to details leads to stale details since I have to wait until 9:00 PM to be able to study every model. So, thanks! ;)
Best,
Phil
Back to the salt mine ...
 
GaWx said:
^ Also, look at that incredibly strong -NAO, the strongest of at least the last 4 GFS runs and stronger than the last 2 Euro runs at least!
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Yep! A lot stronger on the -NAO than 12z! Thanks for the pbp Larry! Also, I'd rather have the very cold look just shown at this point.
 
GaWx said:
^ Also, look at that incredibly strong -NAO, the strongest of at least the last 4 GFS runs and stronger than the last 2 Euro runs at least!
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Nothing transient about that look for sure... will be nice to have some cold air and not have to use the"t" word for a change.

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I don’t know as much as y’all do. The ridge is nice and so is the cold. But if it’s so cold and the jet stream in squashed so south that it’s all a waste, right?
 
NorthGaWinter4 said:
I don’t know as much as y’all do. The ridge is nice and so is the cold. But if it’s so cold and the jet stream in squashed so south that it’s all a waste, right?
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No not a waste, need to the cold, and when it moderates then that the best storms.
 
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