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Severe March 14-18 severe potential.

Arcc said:
Instability is definitely a concern to the north, but storm mode is not until right along the front. Upper level wind flow is screaming discrete Supercells.
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True...I just dont see the rebound. We've seen this setup before and it rarely recovers. I will be surprised if it does, but I have been surprised many times before. We shall see.
 
There’s a noticeable lack of 3-6km storm relative winds today on Hodographs where there’s better instability (farther north the better), which might mess with storm evolutions today and cause a lack of ventilation from mesocyclones and the forward flank vault region in supercells today, could be a limiting factor, poor kinematics/good thermos sort of day, might be a couple of tornadoes with large hail and damaging winds the main threat given dry air aloft, kinda screams RFD dominant supercells sort of day A2E55471-F2D2-4B00-B431-2669F1052C3F.png06F216EB-AE77-40B9-876E-C5B6D4D962FA.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
There’s a noticeable lack of 3-6km storm relative winds today on Hodographs where there’s better instability (farther north the better), which might mess with storm evolutions today and cause a lack of ventilation from mesocyclones and the forward flank vault region in supercells today, could be a limiting factor, poor kinematics/good thermos sort of day, might be a couple of tornadoes with large hail and damaging winds the main threat given dry air aloft, kinda screams RFD dominant supercells sort of day View attachment 115842View attachment 115843
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Today really reminds me of a day last Spring. Had a good bit of nice supercells that afternoon across south AL yet limited tornadoes due to the unidirectional flow. I think there were some nice hail reports though.
 
4 tornado warnings now. You may have potential here for a significant tornado soon.
 
Newest HRRR run is pretty bullish on discreet convection this afternoon.
 
accu35 said:
Well, For southwest Bama, I think we busted. Schools were out when they really could have went TBH. News hyped this tornado threat all day yesterday where it did nothing. I’m very thankful
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Got lucky with this one. Next Tuesdays event we might not be.
 
DadOfJax said:
33/40 completely removed tornado wording from their midday update.
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NWS Birmingham essentially did the same when they did their update around 9:30 CT this morning dropping the slight risk. Their graphic just says isolated damaging wind gusts to 60mph and quarter size hail. No mention of tornadoes on the graphic.

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DadOfJax said:
Are you going to do doomsday outlooks for that event as well?
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Lol I didn't do doomsday for this event. Are you going to quote nothing burger incoming and then change your mind saying it's a legit threat? ? I'll do doomsday outlooks if you do that ?
 
Cloud cover has really helped things stay relatively stable this pm over north and central alabama. That was one heckuva workover with the storms this am.
 
Zander98al said:
Lol I didn't do doomsday for this event. Are you going to quote nothing burger incoming and then change your mind saying it's a legit threat? ? I'll do doomsday outlooks if you do that ?
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This was absolutely a nothing burger.....hence the removal of all mention of tornados in central and north Alabama. The South Alabama threat was legit, and it was pretty much nothing as well. I said exactly what would happen for 2 days, and it did. Could I have been wrong, absolutely, but it seemed pretty clear for the last 18 hours that the HRRR was off its rocker. Better luck next time ;)
 
DadOfJax said:
This was absolutely a nothing burger.....hence the removal of all mention of tornados in central and north Alabama. The South Alabama threat was legit, and it was pretty much nothing as well. I said exactly what would happen for 2 days, and it did. Could I have been wrong, absolutely, but it seemed pretty clear for the last 18 hours that the HRRR was off its rocker. Better luck next time ;)
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Y'all try not to be so salty with eachother please. I think those who contribute to a good service to folks and knowing the upper end of a threat per se is not necessarily a bad thing either. A good blend seems to be the best way to play it but all info is good for digesting in my book.
 
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